NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
USATSI

What goes up must come down. That was the story for me in Week 3. After a stellar start through the first two weeks, the NFL served me a little slice of humble pie. I whiffed on my five locks of the week, which included Green Bay's upset loss to the Browns, the Falcons laying an egg, and both the Texans and Patriots failing to grab hold of very winnable contests. Brutal. But it happens. All I can do now is brush off the dirt, get back up and push towards a more profitable tomorrow beginning in Week 4.

Within my five locks of the week, I'll be going back to the well with Green Bay in the highly anticipated return of Micah Parsons to Dallas, while also raining on the parade of Jaxson Dart's debut as the starter for the New York Giants. 

2025 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 8-7-0
ATS: 22-26-0
ML: 32-16

NFL odds via DraftKings (unless otherwise noted). Bet NFL Week 4 games and NFL odds at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Click here to get started.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

  • Thursday, 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

I would play the Seahawks up to -2.5 in their Thursday night showdown with the Cardinals. They just feel like the better all-around team at the moment. 

The Seahawks' defense is holding opponents to 4.7 yards per play (top 10 in the NFL) to go along with the third-most efficient red zone defense and the second-fewest points per game allowed through three weeks. Meanwhile, Arizona's defense is still banged up in the secondary, which should create plenty of passing lanes for Sam Darnold, who has looked sharp in the early going. Also, Kyler Murray is 0-7 straight-up and 1-6 ATS in his past seven meetings against Seattle. 

Projected score: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 21
The pick: Seahawks -1.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

  • Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ABC | Fubo, try for free)

The Jake Browning experience is not working out well for the Bengals. Yes, the Vikings are one of the toughest defenses in the league, but it was ugly nonetheless for a Cincinnati offense that mustered just 10 points. It's also not going to get much easier for them as they face a stout Broncos defense on the road. This year, the Bengals offense is last in the NFL in yards per game (220.7) and rushing yards per game (49.0). Even if the Cincy offense manages a solid drive here or there, Denver's red zone defense ranks second-best in the league, allowing opponents to reach the end zone on just 27.3% of trips. 

Denver will be coming into this game desperate after falling to 1-2 on the season last week. Moreover, the Broncos offense should have a field day against this Bengals defense that is giving up 30.3 points per game.

Projected score: Broncos 33, Bengals 20
The pick: Broncos -7.5

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

  • Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC | Fubo, try for free)

This is the game that most folks are salivating over when they look at the Week 4 slate, and for good reason. Micah Parsons, making his return to Dallas mere weeks after the shocking trade that sent him to Green Bay, will be worth the price of admission. That's particularly true considering he'll have a great shot at notching at least one sack in his return to Dallas with the Cowboys down both their starting right guard and center due to injury.

While Parsons will certainly be the key storyline coming into this matchup, I believe Jordan Love will be the talking point once the dust is settled. The Cowboys have made average quarterbacks (Russell Wilson and Caleb Williams) look godly over the last two weeks. What happens when an above-average quarterback like Love squares off against them? Even with a questionable receiver room around him, Love has enough to put together a dazzling performance through the air on Sunday night. The Packers quarterback is also a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) on Sunday Night Football, and his head coach, Matt LaFleur, is 12-3 ATS on this stage as well. 

Projected score: Packers 30, Cowboys 20 
The pick: Packers -7

Odds via BetMGM, where you can get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if your first football wager loses:

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants

There's a ton of hype coming into this game now that the Giants are turning the keys to the offense (and the franchise) to first-round rookie Jaxson Dart. The Ole Miss product was sensational in the preseason and could very well be the savior of the organization, but it won't happen this week. Dart gets a tough matchup for his first NFL start, going up against a Chargers defense that has a claim to be considered the best in the league. The unit is No. 1 in the NFL in red zone efficiency (holding opponents to a 25% touchdown rate), No. 4 in points per game allowed (16.7) and No. 3 in opponent passer rating (67.9). Meanwhile, the Chargers have a legit MVP candidate at quarterback in Justin Herbert, so this could be quite the lopsided affair.  

Projected score: Chargers 27, Giants 17
The pick: Chargers -6

Can new Giants starting QB Jaxson Dart crash NFL's OROY award race? Latest odds suggest he's got a shot
Tyler Sullivan
Can new Giants starting QB Jaxson Dart crash NFL's OROY award race? Latest odds suggest he's got a shot

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

This is a kitchen sink game for both of these teams as they enter Week 4 looking to avoid a 1-3 start. While history tells us that Patrick Mahomes and Co. should have the upper hand in this matchup (5-1 against Lamar Jackson in his career), we're siding with Baltimore. 

Sure, Kansas City etched its first win in prime time last week, but that may have had more to do with the Giants' deficiencies with the now-benched Russell Wilson than it did the Chiefs turning some sort of corner. Through three weeks, the Chiefs are averaging 20.0 points per game, 315.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play. All of those are the lowest the franchise has produced since 2018 (Mahomes' first season as the full-time starter).

As for the Ravens, their 1-2 start is a bit different. While they'd like to win every game, falling to the Bills (Week 1) and Lions (Week 3) are understandable. The late-game turnovers are a concern, but Baltimore is simply the more talented and better put-together team at the moment. Jackson pulls off a rare win over his AFC rival Mahomes, further pushing Kansas City into a full-blown panic. 

Projected score: Ravens 27, Chiefs 24
The pick: Ravens -2.5

Rest of the bunch

Vikings at Steelers (in Dublin)
Projected score: Vikings 21, Steelers 17
The pick: Vikings -2.5

Panthers at Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 24, Panthers 21
The pick: Panthers +5.5

Browns at Lions
Projected score: Lions 30, Browns 16
The pick: Lions -10

Saints at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Saints 14
The pick: Saints +16.5

Eagles at Buccaneers
Projected score: Eagles 27, Buccaneers 23
The pick: Eagles -3.5

Titans at Texans
Projected score: Texans 23, Titans 17
The pick: Titans +7

Commanders at Falcons
Projected score: Commanders 28, Falcons 20
The pick: Commanders -1.5

Colts at Rams
Projected score: Rams 27, Colts 24
The pick: Colts +3.5

Jaguars at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 24, Jaguars 20
The pick: 49ers -3.5

Bears at Raiders
Projected score: Bears 23, Raiders 21
The pick: Bears +1.5

Jets at Dolphins (Monday)
Projected score: Jets 26, Dolphins 23
The pick: Jets +2.5