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The New England Patriots still have a chance at the AFC's No. 1 seed on Sunday when they host the Miami Dolphins in an NFL Week 18 AFC East matchup. Quarterback Drake Maye will try to lock up the MVP award -- he is the -295 favorite at DraftKings -- and lead the Patriots (13-3) into the postseason on a roll. They can take the No. 1 seed with a victory and a Denver loss. The Dolphins (7-9) are simply trying to help coach Mike McDaniel keep his job. Miami knocked off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20-17 last week to end a two-game losing streak that eliminated them from the playoffs. New England has won 12 of its past 13 games.     

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. The Patriots are 13.5-point favorites in the latest Dolphins vs. Patriots odds from DraftKings, while the over/under for total points scored is 45.5. New England's over/under for total team points is 29.5, while Miami's is 15.5. Before you make any Patriots vs. Dolphins picks of your own, you have to see the top NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times. 

Where to watch Dolphins vs. Patriots on Sunday

When: Sunday, Jan. 4
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Stream: Fubo  
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Dolphins vs. Patriots betting preview

Odds: Patriots -13.5, Over/Under 45.5

The Patriots are outscoring opponents by about nine points per game and are 11-5 against the spread but just 4-4 ATS at home. Miami is 8-8 ATS (3-4 in road games) but has covered the spread in nine of its past 10 visits to Gillette Stadium. The Pats are 7-1 against the spread in their past eight AFC East matchups. 

Dolphins vs. Patriots SGP

  • Over 45.5
  • Dolphins +13.5
  • Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD scorer

Bet it at DraftKings:

Model's Dolphins vs. Patriots score prediction, picks

As mentioned, the Dolphins are 9-1 ATS in their past 10 trips to New England. They rushed for 145 yards in last week's victory and are 10th in the NFL at 124 rushing yards per game behind De'Von Achane,who is fifth in the league with 1,350 rushing yards. The run game will take pressure off rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers. The first meeting between this season was a 33-27 New England victory, and the model has Miami covering in 53% of simulations. The total has gone Over in eight of New England's past 10 games, and the Pats score an average of 28 points per game, fifth in the NFL. The Over hits at a 60% rate in SportsLine's projections. They want the win to lock up the top seed, but they'll also want to stay healthy for the playoffs, so they could be conservative with Maye. The SportsLine props model projects him for 15 completions and has the Under as a 5-star play.

Dolphins vs. Patriots score prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 21

Want more Week 18 NFL picks?

You've seen the model's best bets for Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Week 18 NFL game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times.