Proof positive that voting for anyone other than Derek Carr for NFL MVP is foolish
Before he was hurt, the Raiders' leader was without peer, and proved himself against the best
•
6 min read
I don't have a vote for the NFL's MVP. If I did, I would give it to Derek Carr.
This award should be reserved for the player most indispensable to his club. It's not necessarily the guy with the most gaudy stats, or one feasts on the NFL's weakest defenses. It's infused by numbers, particularly for quarterbacks who dominate the discussion this season (and most years), but it's not reserved for statistical analysis. It's a review of the entire season, a player's impact on those around him, his ability to transcend in the big moments and often the ability to overcome adversity -- including circumstances caused by teammates and coaches.
When I reflect on who, from Week 1, was the best player on most any field he inhabited, I think of Carr. It started with the opening day comeback and two-point conversion victory at New Orleans until his season-ending and disheartening broken bone in Week 16 -- crushing Oakland's Super Bowl aspirations along with it. When I think about who did the most when the game was on the line, was consistent and defied the odds, I think of Carr.
Despite missing the final six quarters of the season, he led Oakland to 12 wins and had them within range of the AFC's No. 1 seed. The Raiders fell apart behind his backups and were outscored 35-6, limping into the postseason while losing grip of the AFC West title. Except for one game, a short-week Thursday game on Dec. 8 in hostile Arrowhead Stadium against an elite Chiefs defense and playing with a badly dislocated finger on his throwing hand, he was sublime for a team with modest expectations. He managed to lead Oakland to a 4-1 record after suffering that injury. That was made more difficult because the offense was limited to shotgun and pistol looks, killing play-action possibilities, because he could not take a snap under center. Had he not been hurt, Oakland may well be the top seed right now.
Carr did this as the team's owner made public his desire to move the team to Las Vegas. He did this all while playing in the league's best division and, for my money, as the best player in that division. He did this with a coach who did a tremendous job, but Jack Del Rio was not being considered for any other opening when Oakland hired him two years ago. He did it with a coordinator, Bill Musgrave, who has been discarded by more than a quarter of the league and has been with seven NFL teams since 2000 (with a college stint at Virginia mixed in). This ain't exactly being paired with a dynamic schemer like Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta for Matt Ryan, Mike McCarthy with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay or Tom Brady with Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick in New England.
In Dallas, most people can't decide if rookie Dak Prescott or Zeke Elliott is more deserving of the MVP vote, though I believe the offensive line is the the Cowboys' true star. Even Darren McFadden put up big running back numbers in Dallas last season, and Prescott has made limited reads and rarely has thrown deep to navigate the Cowboys to the NFC's top seed (Dak would be in my top six).
If you go on numbers alone, Ryan is your guy -- though he played in arguably the league's weakest division with more than half his games in a climate-controlled dome, feasted on an underbelly of brutal defenses and was in a pinball scheme (more on that later). He makes a compelling case, as would Drew Brees if we want to go primarily on full-season stats. I would just go Carr. Brady is always a worthwhile choice, though New England always wins the AFC East and went 3-1 during his Deflategate ban, the backups chucking nary an interception. Rodgers was the best player in the league for the second half, but that slow start was a real thing, he did have three games with a QB rating under 80 in the first nine contests and Green Bay was 4-6 and reeling at one point.
Again, vote for any of them and I see your point. I simply prefer Carr, who threw for 3,820 yards with 28 touchdowns to only six interceptions, doing so with a slim margin of error, given the case around him. Exclude his one clunker, while injured at Kansas City -- a game Oakland still nearly won -- and he has a rating of 100.5 for the season.
Carr led seven winning drives and set an NFL record with five winning touchdown passes in the fourth quarter or overtime. This, for a moribund franchise with no culture of winning for more than a decade, that had not been to the playoffs or finished above .500 or better than third in its division since 2002. He was an inspirational leader every week, in the huddle and with the game on the line, and with a hit-or-miss run game. Top back Latavius Murray missed two games and was limited to 3.3 yards per carry or less in six others. The Cowboys, Falcons and Packers all had better YPC numbers than the Raiders.
Carr was truly superior in the fourth quarter for a team always locked in one-score games. He led the NFL with a 10-1 TD/INT ratio in that quarter and was fourth (slightly behind Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Brady) with a 109.2 rating. Again, the difference is the Raiders had no room for error given other limitations. The Pats (15.29), Atlanta (14.18), Green Bay (10.70) and Dallas (10.23) ranked in the top half of the league in margin of victory; the Raiders were 27th (6.67), a full score behind. Another mistake or two from Carr or fewer late-game heroics, and they might be watching the playoffs.
And let's not even get started on the defense. Every week the refrain was the same: Can Oakland stop anyone? Can Carr make enough plays to offset all they give up on the other side of the ball? Yeah, they have Khalil Mack. But who else? The equation in Oakland was clear from that first game, with Del Rio going for two vs. New Orleans, rather than put that shaky defense back on the field. And Carr rose to the occasion, nearly every single time. This despite playing in that rugged division (Von Miller, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, Justin Houston, Dontari Poe, Joey Bosa) and overcoming a brutal schedule. Oakland, which for decades could not win outside its time zone, won at New Orleans, Baltimore, Tennessee, Tampa, Jacksonville and Mexico City (against eventual AFC South champ Houston) as Carr went 6-1 on the road and never lost consecutive games.
And while Ryan's statistics are impressive and he's in the top three in many key metrics (yards, touchdowns, etc.), I'll leave you with this: Ryan played in the NFC South, where defense is theoretical at best. His numbers within the division were almost perfect: 154 for 209 (74 percent!) for 2,029 yards (338 per game!) with 18 TDs and 1 INT for a rating of ... 130.7. Therein lies the margins between him and many other quarterbacks (and helps explain some of Brees's numbers, too).
So give me Carr. No on mattered more when it mattered most, and against some of the very best.
