Why the Dolphins should stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick over Tua Tagovailoa ahead of the playoffs
Brian Flores has named Tua the starter, but here's why Fitz deserves another shot
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4 min read
Brian Flores wasted no time declaring Tua Tagovailoa his starting quarterback following Saturday's important win over the Las Vegas Raiders, in which Tagovailoa's benching injected life into the Miami Dolphins, marking the start of the team's comeback. It was no surprise; the coach has been running an unofficial QB rotation since first making the abrupt decision to turn the keys over to Tua, even going so far as to call Ryan Fitzpatrick a "relief pitcher" over the weekend. But here's the bigger question: Is he doing the right thing?
We're not here to question Flores' methods up to this point, however unorthodox they may be. Both Tagovailoa and Fitzpatrick have appeared content, dare we say jovial, about swapping roles lately. And the Dolphins are 10-5, with a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs, as a result. There's a difference, however, between playing the hot hand in the regular season and doing the same in the postseason. It's one thing to rely on Fitzpatrick for fourth-quarter magic against the Raiders and Broncos. It's another to assume there will even be opportunities for late-game salvation when you're playing the Chiefs or the Bills in mid-January.
That's why it makes all the sense in the world for Flores to do what he hasn't done since Week 6: Name Fitzpatrick the starter.
Let's start with the obvious: In almost every appearance, the 38-year-old gunslinger has both looked and played better than his rookie counterpart. This was evidenced immediately in Saturday's affair, in which Fitzpatrick instantly brought a downfield element to Miami's offense, seemingly unshackled coordinator Chan Gailey's playbook and preserved Miami's playoff life. But it's also been apparent for months. It's not that Tua has been bad. It's just that Fitzpatrick has clearly been the better option.
Take a look at their 2020 numbers:
| Player | Games (Starts) | TD | INT | YPA | Comp. % | Sack % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 9 (7) | 13 | 8 | 7.8 | 68.5 | 5.0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 9 (8) | 10 | 2 | 6.3 | 65.1 | 7.6 |
If you want to count team records for/against the QBs, Tagovailoa has a technical edge since Miami has gone 6-2 in his starts compared to 4-3 with Fitzpatrick, but even that category is essentially a wash considering Fitzpatrick led Saturday's comeback. Otherwise, the QB room's elder statesmen has been better in every area except for interceptions. He's thrown more touchdowns, despite starting one less game. He's pushed the ball downfield. He's been more accurate. And he's taken fewer sacks.
Tagovailoa's TD-INT ratio is respectable, but 10 TDs in almost nine full games speaks to his seemingly constrained role under center. So, too, does his bottom-tier YPA mark, which ranks 30th among all QBs -- behind even struggling vets like Cam Newton and Gardner Minshew. Either the Dolphins want him to be a non-risk-taking game manager, or Tagovailoa can't help but box himself in that way.
The issue, moving forward, is twofold. First, Tagovailoa hasn't even been efficient enough to warrant praise as some kind of elite, "safe" point guard. His 65.1 completion percentage ranks 23rd in the NFL (Fitzpatrick ranks No. 8), and he almost takes enough bad sacks to offset his low INT totals. Even at his best, he's not been a difference-making downfield passer -- a near-necessity in today's NFL, and even more so in the playoffs. Blame it on shaky protection or a banged-up receiving corps if you wish, but why does Fitzpatrick so often seem immune to those issues?
Second, it's fine if the Dolphins have earned 10 wins banking on conservative QB play and high-scoring defense, but if they think that formula will guarantee a legitimate postseason run, they're probably mistaken. Their "D" as a whole has not been a world-beater; the unit is feisty, no doubt, but still ranks 20th in total yards allowed per game (19th against the pass, 17th against the run). Flores can joke all he wants about reserving Fitzpatrick for relief duty, in which he's thrived, but if Miami carries its current strategy into a playoff game against the Chiefs or the Bills or the Titans, it won't have 45+ minutes to waste on "keeping it close" with Tua.
The entire operation has even more pressing big-picture questions (like, what does it say, even early on, that your "star" QB must come off the field every time you absolutely need to win?). But even the short term, see, demands that Fitzpatrick take over. Is his floor lower than that of Tagovailoa's? You can certainly make that case. Interceptions have always been a flaring issue with the journeyman. But there doesn't seem to be a question about which QB has the higher ceiling at this juncture. Miami can play not to lose now, but in the playoffs, you either play to win, or you don't win. It's go big or go home, and no one embodies that like Fitzpatrick.
Can Flores and Tua prove us all wrong? Crazier things have happened (see: Fitzpatrick's last-minute pass to set up Miami's Saturday night win). Can Tua still be the Dolphins' QB of the future? Of course. But unless you're playing a scrap-it-out team like the Steelers at every turn of the postseason, it makes sense to close this promising season with the QB who offers the most promise. Fitzpatrick brings life to the entire team around him when he enters. That seems exactly like the guy you want under center when the games matter most.
