USA Portraits - FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022
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Nothing like four years of work coming down to 90 minutes. That's what we're in store for when the United States men's national team and Wales square off. I'm Mike Goodman and I'm writing the Golazo Starting XI newsletter trying desperately not to chew off the remainder of my fingernails as the nerves set in. If you're new to this space, do me a favor and make sure you sign up for our new newsletter covering the beautiful game in all its glory, including daily updates about the World Cup, here.

Here's what's at stake ahead of the USMNT opener at Al Rayyan Stadium: A win and they're in phenomenally strong position to advance while a loss leaves them needing to get a result against England, who just trounced Iran in the early game. And if you lose to Wales, then getting results against England sure sounds like pure fantasy. We've got an ex-USMNTer giving you the keys to the game, then a look at what else is going on around the tournament, and finally some picks as the World Cup rolls into high gear.

Here's what's on tap Monday:

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⚽  The Forward Line

USMNT-Wales: Jimmy Conrad's 3 keys to victory

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CBS Sports

Over on the In Soccer We Trust podcast, retired USMNT defender Jimmy Conrad had some thoughts about what exactly the team needs to do to walk away from the Wales match with three points. You should check out the entire video here and make sure to watch their big-game preview episode and subscribe to the pod. They'll also be going live following the game to give their instant reaction. Anyway, here are the main takeaways.

1. Score goals from set pieces

This is something good international teams have to do. Defenses often sit back and play conservatively and Wales, particularly, won't want to have the ball much. They'll be happy to try and keep it tight defensively and hope the USMNT overcommits, which is a real worry if both Sergino Dest and Antonee Robinson start at fullback. The way to overcome that approach is to score from dead-ball situations. As Jimmy notes, midfielder Weston McKennie is strong in the air and a force when he can get on the end of deliveries in the box. He says he's healthy and ready to go, and if that's the case, look for the USMNT to try and exploit his abilities in the air whenever they can.

2. Get the ball to the best attacking players

Jimmy is 100% right when he talks about how the team needs guys like Christian Pulisic, Gio Reyna and Timothy Weah running at people. But the longstanding problem for this team is that they can struggle to pass the ball up the field. First choice midfielder Tyler Adams is tasked with sitting at the base, so that McKennie can get forward as a mobile destroyer and goal threat while Yunus Musah could play roughly between the two. Musah is only 19 years old, and while he has moments of breathtaking skill on the ball, he's not yet the kind of volume passer who can conduct a game and consistently feed the ball up the field to attackers. That often leaves the job of getting the ball up the field to the fullbacks. And while it might feel feasible, it can also leave the team vulnerable. If the USMNT struggle to attack and their creative stars seem unable to shift the match in their favor, it may simply be because the rest of the group is unable to get them the ball enough to do so.

3. Defenders need to not drop too deep and not play too high

I agree with this one, mostly because it's fairly tautological. Jimmy is right: The defense needs to play well. A good way to determine exactly how the USMNT fare defensively (other than if they're picking the ball out of their own net) is to watch the fullbacks. If Robinson and and Dest (if he starts) are consistently pinned in their own half, that spells danger. Same thing applies if they're constantly caught out of position in attack with Welsh players running in behind them. What you want is a goldilocks "just right" scenario where they're influencing the match in attack without getting caught out in defense. It's easier said than done.

More on the USMNT opener:

🔗  Midfield Link Play

Oh hey, the World Cup started yesterday!

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It wasn't exactly the most dramatic start to a tournament, Ecuador and Qatar got things started after and opening ceremony which featured Morgan Freeman, Jung Kook and a bunch of other ... let's call them interesting moments. The game itself was fairly unremarkable aside from the fifth minute when a complicated offside decision ruled out what would have been the fastest goal in World Cup history for Ecuador. Ultimately, the Video Assistant Referee got the call correct, showcasing a process you'd know all about if you checked out our referee Christina Unkel's pre-tournament refereeing preview.

Now, let's hit some links:

💰  The Back Lines

Best bets

Let's pick some World Cup matches!

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

  • USMNT vs. Wales, Monday, 2 p.m. ET 
    💰 THE PICK: To Score, Christian Pulisic (+400). He's the team's best attacker and biggest threat. More importantly, he's definitely going to play. My heart wants to pick the team but at only +135, the line knows my heart wants to do it and is trying to punish me for it. It's reasonable to pick Wales at +235, but emotional hedges are for the weak. Pulisic is a bet that gets some value for your rooting interest.
  • Argentina vs. Saudi Arabia, Tuesday, 5 a.m. ET 
    💰 THE PICK: Over 3.5 (+155). Argentina might be one of the best two teams in the tournament and Saudi Arabia might be one of the worst two. These are the kinds of matches where running up the score happens. You can also grab the over 2.5 goals at -160, but going for the bigger number here adds some excitement.
  • Denmark vs. Tunisia, Tuesday, 8 a.m. ET 
    💰 THE PICK: Denmark (-215). This is a really good Denmark squad, especially in comparison to Tunisia. A team like Germany would be getting a much worse price against Tunisia than the Danes are (Germany are priced at -230 against a feisty Japan side). By the time we hit the quarterfinals, look for Denmark to be getting odds more similar to the more heralded European sides, so get some value while you can.