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USATSI

Less than five weeks remain until the starting gate opens for the 2025 Kentucky Derby to the roar of more than 150,000, and this weekend will be the most important weekend for horses trying to make the 20-horse Derby field. Four Derby prep races are set for Saturday—the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial and UAE Derby—with the first three races expected to have major implications on who's in the field—and who's the favorite—for the first leg of this year's Triple Crown.

Entering Saturday, the current favorite for the Run for the Roses is San Felipe Stakes winner Journalism. Trained by Michael McCarthy, who's best known for training Rombauer to a win in the 2021 Preakness Stakes, Journalism has won his last three starts and is set to run in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday at Santa Anita Park. In the pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which opens Thursday and closes on Saturday prior to the prep races, Journalism is the 4-1 favorite to win on May 3.

The current second choice is Arkansas Derby winner Sandman, at 8-1. He is coming off a powerful stretch-running victory at Oaklawn Park in which he capitalized on a pace meltdown to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Reigning juvenile champion Citizen Bull (10-1), Florida Derby winner Tappan Street (10-1) and Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty (10-1) round out the top five choices in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager odds.

Santa Anita Derby

No race on this year's road to Kentucky Derby will have more star power than Saturday's Santa Anita Derby (post time: 7:30 p.m. ET). Though the race has just five entrants, it will feature the current Kentucky Derby favorite (Journalism), the reigning juvenile champion (Citizen Bull), a $3.2 million purchase (Barnes) and a regally bred colt who's a brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch (Baeza).

The race also will have trainer Bob Baffert, who is back on the Kentucky Derby trail after a three-year absence. The six-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer is done serving a suspension, which was handed down by Churchill Downs in 2021 when his Medina Spirit failed a postrace drug test after crossing the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby. (Medina Spirit was later disqualified.) Baffert trains both Citizen Bull and Barnes.

Bonus: SportsLine racing analyst Michelle Yu, who already has hit the winners of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Saudi Cup and San Felipe Stakes this year, has provided her Santa Anita Derby picks, wagers and analysis at SportsLine.

Blue Grass Stakes

Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes (5:52 p.m. ET) is a head-scratching handicapping exercise between several evenly matched horses. Five of the seven entrants are listed between 5-2 and 9-2 on the morning line. Fountain of Youth Stakes runner-up River Thames is the lukewarm 5-2 favorite, just ahead of East Avenue (3-1), Owen Almighty (3-1), Chancer McPatrick (7-2) and Burnham Square (9-2).

The theme for the race is redemption. The starting gate is slated to have three horses who were, at some point, among the top three favorites for the Kentucky Derby but are all coming off losses. Burnham Square surged to near the top of the Derby contenders after a resounding win in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 1 but then ran a flat fourth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes one month later as the favorite. Chancer McPatrick emerged as a hot Derby prospect in the fall when he won two Grade 1 races as a 2-year-old, but he has finished sixth and second in his two starts since then. And East Avenue was terrific in winning the Breeders Futurity last fall and earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, but he has finished ninth and 10th in his two subsequent starts.

Wood Memorial

Once one of the most important Kentucky Derby prep races, the Wood Memorial has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since the gutsy gelding Funny Cide donned the blanket of roses in 2003, and this year's edition of the Wood (6:10 p.m. ET) has attracted arguably a second-rate field. Only one entrant, Captain Cook at 25-1, is listed at shorter than 40-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

The 5-2 morning-line favorite for the Wood Memorial, Rodriguez, ships in from California for Baffert, who doesn't normally take the Wood Memorial route to Churchill Downs. But Baffert already has Citizen Bull and Barnes in the Santa Anita Derby, so Rodriguez has been tabbed to take the business trip to New York. The move may benefit Rodriguez, who went gate-to-wire in his scintillating maiden score on Jan. 4 only to sit behind stablemates Citizen Bull and Barnes in his next two starts, both losses. With Rodriguez finally free from his stablemates on Saturday, his early speed can be unleashed from the rail draw, which makes him a threat to take this relatively soft field gate-to-wire. 

Bonus: Yu is looking past the favorite in this race as the key part of her Wood Memorial wagering strategy, which you can find in full at SportsLine.

UAE Derby

The Brad Cox-trained Flood Zone is taking an unconventional route to Louisville. Instead of running in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where he won the Gotham Stakes impressively on March 1, Flood Zone has been shipped almost 8,000 miles to Meydan Racecourse in Dubai for the UAE Derby (11 a.m. ET), which has never produced a Kentucky Derby winner. He enters the race as the horse to beat, given his win by more than three lengths in the Gotham.

Flood Zone is looking to continue Cox's success on this year's Derby trail. On March 22 Cox's Final Gambit won the Jeff Ruby Steaks, and on Saturday his Tappan Street took home the Florida Derby.

Bonus: SportsLine horse racing writer Gene Menez, who crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders' Cup Saturday for $5,303 and gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby las year, has identified his pick for the UAE Derby in Dubai over at SportsLine.