2025 NFL playoff predictions: Bills a projected lock to reach postseason, plus AFC best bets
The SportsLine Projection Model shares its playoff projections for every AFC team while identifying three best bets
The Kansas City Chiefs have been a fixture in the NFL playoffs for the last decade, as they last missed the postseason with a 9-7 record in 2014. Kansas City has reached double figures in wins each of those 10 seasons and appeared in the Super Bowl five times in the last six years, winning three championships.
One of the main reasons for the Chiefs' current success has been their dominance of the AFC West. They have won nine consecutive division titles after capturing just one in 12 seasons from 2004-15.
Another AFC team that has become a regular in the playoffs is the Buffalo Bills. With the fall of the New England Patriots, the Bills have assumed the role of the dominant force in the AFC East, finishing atop the division each of the last five seasons and making six straight playoff appearances.
Several other clubs in the conference have qualified on a fairly regular basis of late, including the AFC North-rival Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. Baltimore has reached the postseason six of the last seven years, while Pittsburgh has made the playoffs eight times in the last 11 campaigns.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets have gone 14 seasons without a playoff appearance after reaching back-to-back AFC Championship Games in 2009 and 2010. And the Denver Broncos ended their eight-year drought by going 10-7 and earning a wild-card berth last year.
According to the SportsLine Projection Model, the Bills and Ravens are near-locks to make the postseason in 2025, while the Chiefs are likely to extend their streak. The Los Angeles Chargers also are good bets to qualify for the playoffs for the third time in four campaigns.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, already has crunched the numbers on the 2025 season. The model has projections on each team's playoff probability, as well as their win total and chances to win the division, the AFC and the Super Bowl. And based on the odds being offered at the top sportsbooks, there is value to be had.
AFC playoff projections and odds
AFC | Model's % | ||||
Buffalo Bills | 99.0% | -700 | -750 | -700 | -650 |
Baltimore Ravens | 93.8% | -450 | -550 | -500 | -550 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 78.0% | -360 | -380 | -400 | -400 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 72.3% | -120 | -140 | -112 | -130 |
Houston Texans | 66.6% | -140 | -135 | -142 | -140 |
Denver Broncos | 55.7% | -125 | -115 | -112 | -105 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 48.7% | +140 | +145 | +164 | +150 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 45.1% | -175 | -160 | -168 | -170 |
Miami Dolphins | 35.1% | +160 | +155 | +172 | +150 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 27.6% | +160 | +155 | +168 | +160 |
New York Jets | 23.0% | +425 | +475 | +490 | +475 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 16.1% | +260 | +370 | +285 | +310 |
Tennessee Titans | 16.0% | +425 | +370 | +440 | +400 |
Indianapolis Colts | 14.1% | +160 | +200 | +172 | +170 |
New England Patriots | 7.5% | +160 | +135 | +160 | +155 |
Cleveland Browns | 1.5% | +800 | +800 | +820 | +700 |
While -650 at BetMGM on the Bills to make the playoffs is extreme value based on the model's projection of 99.0%, a bettor still has to wager $650 to win $100 and lock up that money for months to do so. The same can be said of a wager on the Ravens and, to a lesser extent, the Chargers and Texans. According to the model, there is better value on teams such as the Broncos, Steelers and Jets.
Now we'll take a closer look at the model's top three plays to make the 2025 NFL postseason.
1. Los Angeles Chargers (-112, FanDuel)
- Playoff probability model projection: 72.3%
Los Angeles went 10-7 and qualified for the postseason in 2022 but struggled mightily the following year, posting only five victories as head coach Brandon Staley was fired with three games remaining. Enter former Chargers quarterback Jim Harbaugh, who left the University of Michigan less than three weeks after guiding the school to the national championship to accept his second head-coaching job in the NFL.
The Chargers responded to Harbaugh, posting an 11-6 record to finish second in the AFC West and return to the playoffs. And they did so without an exceptional season from Justin Herbert, who threw for fewer than 4,000 yards (3,870) and 25 touchdowns (23) for the second straight year after reaching or eclipsing those plateaus in each of his first three NFL campaigns.
Kansas City remains the favorite to win the division, but the club likely won't record 15 wins again in 2025. Los Angeles, which added Najee Harris to its backfield and brought back veteran receiver Mike Williams, could give the Chiefs a run for their money, however, and the model believes it can make consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since a four-year run from 2006-09.
2. Houston Texans (-135, DraftKings)
- Playoff probability model projection: 66.6%
The Texans were the only team from the AFC South to reach the playoffs each of the last two seasons, as they captured the seventh and eighth division titles in franchise history. It's no coincidence that C.J. Stroud has been under center for those two campaigns.
Selected with the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Stroud made a seamless transition from Ohio State to the Texans. He threw for 4,108 yards and 23 TDs with only five interceptions en route to being named the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Stroud didn't exactly take a step forward last campaign, but he certainly avoided the dreaded sophomore slump, recording 3,727 passing yards and 20 scoring tosses. More importantly for the Texans, they posted their second straight 10-win season after recording a total of 11 victories over the three years prior to Stroud's arrival.
Houston allowed wideout Stefon Diggs to depart as a free agent after just one season during which he appeared in only eight games due to a torn ACL and replaced him with Christian Kirk, whose 2024 campaign with the Jaguars also was limited to eight contests because of a broken collarbone.
But the model still sees the Texans approaching 10 wins again in 2025, projecting them to record 9.2. It feels that will be enough for Houston to finish atop the AFC South and make the playoffs for the third straight season.
3. Denver Broncos (-105, BetMGM)
- Playoff probability model projection: 55.7%
The AFC West has gone from being a dreadful division to one of the most competitive in the NFL. Three teams qualified for the postseason last year, with the Broncos joining the Chiefs and Chargers.
Some may have been surprised that Denver ended its lengthy drought, but they shouldn't have been. Sean Payton, who guided the New Orleans Saints to nine playoff appearances and the only Super Bowl championship in franchise history during his 15 seasons in the Big Easy, helped the Broncos improve from five wins in 2022 to eight in his first campaign after taking a year off from coaching.
Payton then put his faith in Bo Nix, who was taken 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the product of the University of Oregon did not let his coach down. Nix registered 3,775 passing yards in his first campaign and finished sixth in the league with 29 touchdown tosses as he led the Broncos to their first playoff appearance since they won the Super Bowl in 2015 and was a finalist for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
Nix formed a strong connection with receiver Courtland Sutton, who made a career-high 81 catches while eclipsing the 1,000-yard plateau (1,081) for the second time in seven NFL seasons. Denver added another weapon for Nix in tight end Evan Engram, who was limited to nine games with Jaguars last year due to a torn labrum after setting career highs with 114 receptions and 963 receiving yards in 2023.
The model thinks that with Payton's guidance, Nix can help take the Broncos to the postseason for the second straight year.
