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The Indiana Pacers were just one quarter away from taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the NBA Finals, carrying a 7-point lead into the fourth quarter of Game 4. But the Oklahoma City Thunder rallied for a 111-104 victory on the road, as MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander came up huge with 15 points in the fourth quarter. Now the series goes back to Oklahoma City, where Monday night's matchup tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Here are the NBA best bets and player props for Game 5 of the NBA Finals from the SportsLine Projection Model. Those interested in NBA betting can also check out the latest bet365 bonus code, where you can get $150 in bonus bets after placing a first bet of at least $5. 

Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC

SportsLine Projection Model's top picks

  • Thunder -9.5 (-110)
  • Tyrese Haliburton Over 25.5 points + assists (-112)
  • Myles Turner Over 6.5 rebounds + assists (+116)
  • (Same-game parlay odds: +681)

Three of the four NBA Finals games have been decided by single digits so far, with the one exception being Game 2, where the Thunder cruised to a 16-point victory at home. Despite the tight series, Oklahoma City opened as a 9-point favorite for Game 5 and has been bet up to -9.5, per SportsLine consensus odds. The SportsLine Projection Model is backing the favorite here, with the Thunder covering the sizable spread in 70% of simulations. 

Even with the model projecting a big Thunder win, it's also rolling with two Pacers Overs. Haliburton has gone Over his points + assists prop in 12 of his last 21 road games when facing a top-10 defense, averaging 28.9 points + assists over that span. The SportsLine Projection Model has him calculated for 29.1 points + assists in Game 5, along with 7.8 rebounds + assists for Turner. With Turner's Over for that prop at +116, that discrepancy makes his rebounds + assists worth including in this same-game parlay.

The Thunder are -424 (wager $424 to win $100) on the money line, while the Pacers are +327 (wager $100 to win $327) to take a 3-2 series lead back to Indiana. The total sits at 224.5 points, a number that has only been exceeded once so far this series. You can see the model's latest projections, along with expert picks for Pacers-Thunder Game 5, at SportsLine.

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