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The Indiana Pacers will attempt to do something they have yet to do in these playoffs Wednesday when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Despite some late-game heroics and epic comebacks, the Pacers have actually lost every Game 3 they have played in this postseason, with two of those losses coming on their home floor. The Thunder haven't been particularly stellar in Game 3s either, though all three they've played in these playoffs have come on the road. Oklahoma City is 1-2 in Game 3s, with the most recent loss being a 42-point blowout at the hands of the Timberwolves. This is a crucial contest as the series is tied 1-1 after the Pacers took the opener and Oklahoma City responded with a convincing Game 2 win.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC

SportsLine Projection Model's top picks

  • Under 229 (-110)
  • Tyrese Haliburton Over 7.5 assists (-154)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 33.5 points (-110)
  • (Same-game parlay odds: +501)

After squandering a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Thunder did not make that mistake in Game 2 and ultimately secured a 123-107 victory without much fuss. Oklahoma City did get a big game from league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (34 points), but it was 38 combined points off the bench from Alex Caruso and Aaron Wiggins which ultimately carried the Thunder to a win. The Pacers showcased their usual balance with seven players hitting double figures and didn't turn the ball over as much but couldn't overcome Oklahoma City's precision from the floor and free-throw line.

Game 1 went Under 229 points and Game 2 went Over, but the model feels strongly about Game 3 staying Under this line, as it hits in 59.9% of simulations. Two of Indiana's Game 3s in these playoffs have remained Under 229 and the lone Over came at 230 total points. Oklahoma City has also stayed Under 229 in two of its three Game 3s. Haliburton only logged six assists in both Games 1 and 2 but the model is projecting him at 10.4 assists Wednesday, well above his line at 7.5. The model is also bucking the trend on SGA's points prop, backing Under 33.5 despite the guard scoring 34 or more points in each Finals game.

The Thunder are 5-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, priced at -221 (wager $221 to win $100) on the money line. Indiana is a +182 (wager $100 to win $182) home underdog and the total sits at 229. You can see the model's latest projections, along with expert picks for Thunder-Pacers Game 3, at SportsLine.

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