NFL player props for Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield on Thursday Night Football

NFC South rivals face off on Thursday night and we break down the best quarterback player props for the Week 15 contest

By Chinmay Vaidya

Dec 11, 2025 at 7:00 am ET • 2 min read

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The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet in Week 15 of the 2025 NFL season on Thursday Night Football in a battle of division rivals trending in opposite directions. The Falcons are rolling with Kirk Cousins, as Michael Penix Jr. is sidelined for the rest of the season, while the Bucs hope Baker Mayfield can deliver another victory over Atlanta like he did in Week 1 of this season. These two quarterbacks had a thrilling Thursday showdown in 2024, highlighted by Cousins throwing for 509 yards and four touchdowns, including the game-winning score to KhaDarel Hodge in a 36-30 overtime win. Will Cousins repeat that performance here, or will Mayfield lead a sweep of the season series for Tampa Bay?

We'll look at the best NFL player props for Cousins and Mayfield, with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and recommendations from the SportsLine Projection Model. If you're interested in a full game forecast for Falcons vs. Buccaneers or want more NFL player prop recommendations, head over to SportsLine.

Passing yards props

Kirk Cousins: 205.5 (Over -113, Under -111)
Baker Mayfield: 218.5 (Over -113, Under -111)

Top pick: Baker Mayfield Under 218.5 passing yards (4.5 stars)

Mayfield only threw for 167 yards in the Week 1 win over Atlanta and he only managed 180 in the wild Thursday Night Football matchup between these sides a year ago. The Falcons have a solid pass defense and Mayfield is dealing with a shoulder issue, so it makes sense for Tampa Bay to lean on the ground game more. The model projects Mayfield for 175.6 passing yards.

Passing attempts props

Kirk Cousins: 31.5 (Over -102, Under -125)
Baker Mayfield: 31.5 (Over -114, Under -111)

Top pick: Kirk Cousins Under 31.5 pass attempts (4 stars)

Cousins has gone Over this particular line just once in his appearances this season, throwing 33 times in a 27-24 loss to the Jets. The veteran quarterback might be tasked with doing more against a shaky Bucs secondary, but the Falcons are also down Drake London and could be without Kyle Pitts too. They could focus on running the ball more. The model projects Cousins to throw the ball 25.2 times.

Passing touchdowns props

Kirk Cousins: 1.5 (Over -259, Under +198)
Baker Mayfield: 1.5 (Over -142, Under +111)

Top pick: Baker Mayfield Under 1.5 passing TDs (4 stars)

Despite the sportsbook odds suggesting both passers will connect on two or more scores through the air, the model is taking the Under for both quarterbacks in this market. Mayfield has thrown for just one touchdown in each of his last four games but has gone Over 1.5 passing touchdowns in four of his last five games against Atlanta. The model has Mayfield at 1.0 passing touchdowns on Thursday.