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The Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx will be battling for a $500,000 prize pool in Tuesday night's Commissioner's Cup final at 8 p.m. ET at the Target Center in Minneapolis. The Lynx won last year's Commissioner's Cup final over the New York Liberty, and Napheesa Collier won Cup MVP after putting up 21 points. Caitlin Clark has been dealing with a groin injury which has sidelined her for the last two games and will once again keep her off the floor in this contest. The Lynx opened as 6.5-point favorites in this contest but have now moved to 10.5-point favorites with Clark being ruled out.

Before locking in any WNBA picks or WNBA props, check out the Fever-Lynx best bets from experts Calvin Wetzel and Aaron Barzilai. 

Barzilai is a Ph.D. from Stanford who served as Director of Basketball Analytics for the Philadelphia 76ers. Five years ago, he founded HerHoopStats.com -- a groundbreaking website that unlocks insights about the women's game. Wetzel, the site's lead betting writer, incorporates his mathematical background and strong knowledge of women's hoops to turn the site's prediction model into picks. Wetzel and Barzilai went 202-111-2 (+57.9 units) during the 2024 WNBA season and posted a 147-88-1 (+47.1 units) during the 2024-25 NCAA season. In the 2023 WNBA season, they finished 238-185-1 (+29.5 units).

Here are Barzilai and Wetzel's top Fever-Lynx picks for Tuesday, July 1 (made before Clark was ruled out):

  • Fever/Lynx Under 165.5 points (-110)... with a lean to Fever +6.5 (-110)
  • Kelsey Mitchell Commissioner's Cup MVP (+1600)

Fever/Lynx Under 165.5 (and Fever +6.5 lean)

With the status of Caitlin Clark up in the air for the Commissioner's Cup championship game, it's tough to know how to attack these lines from a betting perspective. However, given the high intensity of the moment and Minnesota's league-leading defense and slow pace, this total is too high even if Clark plays.

If you have to pick a side for now, the Fever look like the move—with so much on the line, it would be surprising if Clark didn't do everything she can to give it a go. However, the better bet is the under, and if Clark sits, that will only look even better by closing.

Kelsey Mitchell Commissioner's Cup MVP

This is not a bet I would recommend going a full unit on—it's a longshot for a reason. But a 0.1-unit sprinkle here is worth it. While the Fever will have to win the game, they are certainly capable of that, and Mitchell is also capable of winning this award even if Clark plays, especially if Clark isn't 100%. The last time we saw Clark, she scored six points on 3-of-13 shooting with eight turnovers, while Mitchell posted a 26/4/4 line on 57% shooting.