jamal-murray-nuggets-imagn.jpg
Imagn Images

The No. 1-seed Oklahoma City Thunder have a chance to close out the series against the No. 4-seed Denver Nuggets on Thursday. The Thunder are on a two-game win streak after they picked up a 112-105 victory in Game 5. That helped them gain a 3-2 series lead, but they will have to do so on the road. Tipoff for Game 6 is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET at the Ball Arena in Denver. The Thunder are favored by 4.5 points, and the over/under is 217.5 points in the latest Nuggets vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Oklahoma City's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 31 points in Tuesday's win and is +450 to be the first points scorer tonight.  

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the second week of the conference semifinals of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 159-117 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, here are the model's top-three picks in the Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP on Thursday. You can bet it right now at DraftKings and get $200 in Bonus Bets instantly.

Oklahoma City -4.5 (-115)

The Thunder were last in the Western Conference Finals in 2016 and have a shot to go back. The model predicts that the Thunder will finish with a five-point victory. Two of their three wins in this series have already been by at least seven points. Meanwhile, OKC is 23-16-2 against the spread as the road favorite.

Jamal Murray 20+ points (-175)

Murray is a three-level scorer and averages 22.3 points, while shooting 44.7% from the field and 37.8% from beyond the arc. In the 2025 NBA Playoffs, Murray has scored 20-plus points in eight of his 12 outings. In the Game 5 loss, Murray totaled 28 points. Playing on his home court in a must-win matchup will give him an extra boost on Thursday night.

Jalen Williams 2+ 3-pointers (-160)

Williams gives Oklahoma City a floor spacer in the frontcourt. He can score off-ball but can also create his shot when needed. In the regular season, he made 36.5% of his 3-point attempts. The 24-year-old has knocked down at least two 3-pointers in six of his past eight playoff games, including going 2-of-5 in his previous contest.

Looking for a potential +350 payout? Bet our 3-leg NBA SGP parlay at DraftKings right now, and get $200 in bonus bets instantly on a $5 bet.

Want more NBA picks for today?

You've seen some of the model's top NBA playoff best bets for Thursday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top NBA picks from expert Larry Harstein, who's on a sizzling 52-35 (+806) roll on his last 87 NBA player props picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who's up more than 21 units.