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Favorites went 9-7 against the spread in NFL Week 17, with the Bengals, Seahawks and Patriots all covering easily as at least seven-point favorites. But six underdogs won outright, including stunning victories by the Vikings on Christmas Day and the Falcons on Monday Night Football. In NFL Week 18, there are a lot of teams lacking motivation facing squads with a lot to play for. There are seven Week 18 NFL games with spreads of at least a touchdown, including a pair of AFC South matchups. The Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) are trying to clinch the South title and still hold out some hope of earning the AFC's top seed. They are 12.5-point favorites against the 3-13 Tennessee Titans. The Houston Texans (11-5) are also gunning for the AFC South title and are favored by 10.5 against the Indianapolis Colts (8-8).

With so many huge favorites in NFL Week 18, you'll want to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say about the best spread picks you should make. The model picks every NFL game each week, and it enters Week 18 on a 53-37 run on top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024.

Here's a look at our favorite NFL spread picks for Week 18.

Best spread picks for NFL Week 18

Bills -7 vs. Jets

Buffalo (11-5) will still be stinging from its 13-12 loss to the Eagles in Week 17, and the Jets (3-13) have almost no reason to show up. The Jets haven't won at Buffalo since 2019 and have won just two of the 11 meetings since then. Buffalo won both of the past two home meetings by 26 points and has won the past six at home by an average of almost 16 points. The Bills won 20-10 in New York in September, and the SportsLine model has them covering the spread in 64% of its simulations.

Raiders +5.5 vs. Chiefs

Both of the teams are just looking forward to the season's end. The Chiefs are on their third-string quarterback, and the Raiders will be missing players like Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers. This will be an ugly one, and the SportsLine model projects both quarterbacks -- Kenny Pickett for the Raiders and K.C.'s Chris Oladokun -- to throw for less than 200 yards. The model has this coming in Under the modest 36.5 total 63% of the time. The Raiders are winning in 46% of simulations and are covering the spread at a 61% clip, with SportsLine's model projecting a 1-point Chiefs victory.

Chargers +12.5 vs. Broncos

This is a ton of points for a rivalry matchup. Sure, the Chargers don't have much on the line, but denying their AFC West rivals the victory that would clinch them the AFC's top seed is motivation enough. L.A. quarterback Justin Herbert will sit out, but backup Trey Lance has experience. He will have trouble against a very good Broncos defense, but the Chargers have a pretty strong unit of their own. The Broncos are third in the league in yards allowed per game, and L.A. is fourth. The model has Denver winning fairly easily, but the Chargers are covering the spread in 58% of simulations.

Rams -7.5 vs. Cardinals

The Rams should be in a foul mood. Their inexplicable loss to the Falcons on Monday Night Football is certainly still gnawing at them, and they'll use this NFC West matchup to get right for the playoffs. The Cardinals have rarely been competitive in losing eight straight games, and the average losing margin in their past four is 19.5 points. With L.A. coming in on a two-game losing streak, they'll come out firing to get a big lead and rest their stars for the postseason. The SportsLine model has them covering in 58% of its simulations.

Colts +10.5 vs. Texans

The Colts would love to play spoiler here as their rivals try to win the AFC South. The Texans need a victory and a Jaguars loss for that to happen. They should get the win, but the model has the Colts covering in 57% of its simulations. It even has them winning outright 34% of the time, so there is some value on Indianapolis on the money line. The Colts are going with Riley Leonard at quarterback, but they'll lean on Jonathan Taylor, who is second in the NFL with 1,559 rushing yards. The Texans are stout against the run, but Indy will still keep it on the ground to keep the clock running out on their season.