NFL predictions: Each NFC team's best road to Super Bowl 60

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model have crunched the numbers and identified the best and worst matchups for every NFC team, from Seattle to Carolina

By Gene Menez

Jan 7, 2026 at 10:02 am ET • 5 min read

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The 14-team NFL playoff field has been finalized, and the seeds have been set. The road to Santa Clara, Calif., and Super Bowl 60 begins this weekend with six playoff games, three each in the AFC and NFC.

The Seahawks are the favorites to lift the Lombardi Trophy, listed at +330 at DraftKings. As the No. 1 seed in the NFC, they have the most enviable path to the big game on Feb. 8.

But even Seattle has an optimal road to the Super Bowl. Luckily, the SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model have crunched the numbers and identified the Seahawks' and every other NFC team's most favorable path to the title. And according to the model, all of the NFC teams, with the exception of the Rams, have one thing in common: They should all be rooting for the Panthers.

Seahawks

Seattle being the Super Bowl favorite is no surprise. As the No. 1 seed in the NFC, Sam Darnold and the Seahawks are enjoying a bye week and will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, gives Seattle at least a 50.9% chance to beat every other team still alive in the postseason.

But the model says that the Seahawks should be big fans of Carolina on Saturday against the Rams. According to the model, Seattle has a better chance to win against the Panthers (74.4%) than any team remaining in the playoffs, including the perceived worst teams in the AFC. In addition, a Carolina win would knock out the Rams, who have the best chance (43.6%) to beat the Seahawks of all of the NFC squads in the model's simulations. Los Angeles and Seattle split their two matchups this year, with each team winning at home.

Should the Seahawks get to the Super Bowl, the model gives Jacksonville the best chance against them, at 49.1%.

Opponent	Seahawks' average win %
Bears	68.5
Eagles	57.6
Panthers	74.4
Rams	56.4
49ers	65.9
Packers	65.8

Bears

The Projection Model is not a big fan of the NFC North champs. Even though Chicago is the No. 2 seed in the NFC, the model says Caleb Williams & Co. have a better than 50.0% chance to win against only the Panthers (67.1%), Packers (54.5%) and 49ers (52.8%) in the NFC. So the Bears will be rooting hard for Carolina over the Rams on Saturday prior to taking the field against rival Green Bay. (Chicago is a 1.5-point underdog at DraftKings despite playing at home.)

If the Bears navigate the NFC to get to the Super Bowl, the model gives them a better than 50-50 chance against only one AFC team: the Chargers.

Opponent	Bears' average win %
Seahawks	31.5
Eagles	47.1
Panthers	67.1
Rams	44.9
49ers	52.8
Packers	54.5

Eagles

Like the rest of the teams in the NFC, the reigning Super Bowl champions would be best served if they didn't have to face the Seahawks. According to the Projection Model Philadelphia would have at least a 52.9% chance against any NFC team not named Seattle. And in a matchup between the No. 2-seeded Bears and the No. 3-seeded Eagles, the model prefers Philadelphia even though that game would be played in Chicago.

Interestingly, the Eagles are one of two NFC teams (the Panthers are the other) that the model says would have their worst chance against the Texans over any other AFC team in the Super Bowl.

Opponent	Eagles' average win %
Seahawks	42.4
Bears	52.9
Panthers	70.1
Rams	55.5
49ers	60.6
Packers	61.5

Panthers

Carolina is the longest shot at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl (+20000), and the Projection Model agrees that the Panthers' road to lifting the Lombardi will be tough. But just how tough? According to the model, Carolina has only a 24.4% chance to beat the Rams on Saturday, even though the Panthers already beat the Rams this season, 31-28. That's Carolina's worst average win percentage against any team remaining in the playoffs, even worse than having to face the top-seeded Seahawks in Seattle (25.6%).

But since we're discussing hypotheticals, let's throw out the most unlikely hypothetical of them all. If the Panthers knock off Los Angeles on Saturday, their dream path to the Super Bowl title would be a Divisional Round matchup against the 49ers, an NFC Championship Game meeting against the Packers and a Super Bowl battle against the Chargers.

Opponent	Panthers' average win %
Seahawks	25.6
Bears	32.9
Eagles	29.9
Rams	24.4
49ers	36.0
Packers	39.1

Rams

The Projection Model loves L.A. The simulations give Matthew Stafford & Co. the third-best chance to win the Super Bowl (10.0%), behind only the Seahawks (22.3%) and Broncos (16.2%) despite being a wild card team and the No. 5 seed in the NFC.

Interestingly, the model says Los Angeles would have almost as difficult a time against the Eagles (44.5%) as it would against the Seahawks (43.6%). The Rams, however, would have a much easier time against the Bears (55.1%).

If Los Angeles gets to Santa Clara, the model likes the team's chances against all but two AFC teams: the Jaguars and Texans.

Opponent	Rams' average win %
Seahawks	43.6
Bears	55.1
Eagles	44.5
Panthers	75.6
49ers	61.0
Packers	63.5

49ers

Losing the Week 18 showdown against the Seahawks really diminished San Francisco's chances to reach — and win — the Super Bowl. According to the Projection Model, the 49ers, who now have to face the Eagles in Philadelphia instead of being at home for the rest of the postseason, have a better than 50% chance to beat only two NFC teams: the Panthers (64.0) and Packers (53.4). And if San Francisco beats the Eagles on Sunday, there's a more than significant chance that the 49ers will have to knock off either or both NFC West postseason rivals, the Seahawks and Rams, to get to the Super Bowl.

If San Francisco gets to the big game, the 49ers will have the advantage of playing at home, at Levi's Stadium. But that advantage may not be as big as you may think. The model gives them a better than 50% chance of winning against just two AFC teams: the Chargers (55.3%) and Steelers (53.8%).

Opponent	49ers' average win %
Seahawks	34.1
Bears	47.2
Eagles	39.4
Panthers	64.0
Rams	39.0
Packers	53.4

Packers

With Green Bay the No. 7 seed in the seven-team NFC bracket, the team's path is pretty well laid out. If the Packers beat the Bears on Saturday, Jordan Love & Co. will have to face the top-seeded Seahawks in Seattle in the Divisional Round. The Projection Model gives the Packers a 45.5% chance to conquer Chicago and just a 34.2% chance to slay the Seahawks.

The good news? If Green Bay reaches the NFC Championship Game, the road gets easier; no remaining possible opponent offers a more difficult matchup for Green Bay than Seattle, according to the model.