NFL predictions: How Jaguars vs. Broncos impacts AFC South race

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model say Jacksonville's hopes to win the division could hinge on Sunday's result at Denver

By Gene Menez

Dec 17, 2025 at 4:26 pm ET • 2 min read

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Now that the Kansas City Chiefs' three-year reign atop the AFC is over, the royal rumble to take over the throne is on.

The Denver Broncos (12-2) have ridden 11 straight wins to the best record in the conference, while the New England Patriots (11-3) feature MVP candidate Drake Maye, who leads the NFL in completion percentage (70.9). The Buffalo Bills (10-4) are never out of a game with the arm and legs of quarterback Josh Allen, and the ascending Houston Texans (9-5), who are allowing just 16.3 points per game, own one of the league's best defenses in years.

The Broncos (+300), Bills (+370), Texans (+500) and Patriots (+600) are the top four favorites to win the AFC at DraftKings Sportsbook.

But where are the Jacksonville Jaguars? In the free-for-all that is this year's AFC race, the Jaguars are getting no love. Even though they have the third best record (10-4) in the conference and lead the AFC South, they are just +650 to win the conference, behind all four teams above.

That could change on Sunday if Jacksonville knocks off Denver at Empower Field in a game with enormous ramifications for the Jaguars. With three games remaining in the regular season, Jacksonville enters Week 16 with a one-game lead over Houston in the division. The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model say the Jaguars have a 50% chance to win the AFC South.

If they beat the Broncos on Sunday, that percentage jumps to 74.5%. But if Jacksonville loses to Denver, that chance crashes to 37.2%.

	Entering Week 16	With win	With loss
Chance to win division	50.0%	74.5%	37.2%

After facing the Broncos, the Jaguars play the struggling Colts (8-6) and quarterback fossil Philip Rivers in Week 17 in Indianapolis and the Tennessee Titans (2-12) in Week 18. Jacksonville is likely to be favored in both.

That's why the Jaguars can apply a hammerlock on the AFC South title with a victory on Sunday. Jacksonville is a 3-point underdog against the Broncos at DraftKings.

Conversely, a loss would be detrimental to the Jaguars' division hopes. The second-place Texans host the Raiders (2-12) on Sunday and are favored by more than two touchdowns. If Jacksonville loses and Houston wins, the Texans would overtake the Jaguars for the lead in the division based on a better division record. Houston also would have the better conference record.

The Texans' last two games are at the Chargers (10-4) and against Rivers and the Colts, so Jacksonville would still have some hope if it falls in Denver but wouldn't control its destiny.

The Jaguars enter Week 16 playing arguably their best ball of the season. They have won five in a row and are coming off a 48-20 win over the Jets in which quarterback Trevor Lawrence set career highs in passing touchdowns (five), touchdowns accounted for (six) and passer rating (136.7).

On Sunday, Lawrence and Jacksonville will face a Broncos defense that is tied for third in the league in points per game allowed (18.6).

"Getting to go play a competitive, meaningful game in December is really what it comes down to," Jaguars coach Liam Coen said Wednesday. "Hostile environment. A very quality opponent. A team that's won the fourth quarter in a lot of football games over the last two years. It's a great opportunity for us to go compete and earn everything we get."