How matchup with Rams will impact Lions' playoff chances for rest of season

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model say that Detroit can boost its postseason chances immensely with an upset win on Sunday at the Rams

By Gene Menez

Dec 10, 2025 at 12:51 pm ET • 2 min read

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Ever since his now-famous introductory press conference in January 2021 in which he said the Detroit Lions would "bite a kneecap off" during his tenure as coach, Dan Campbell has never minced words.

So on Monday, when he was asked about the Lions being in chase mode in the NFC playoff race as they enter the Week 15 game against the Los Angeles Rams, he didn't back off.

"We've got to win; we need to win," Campbell said. "We're trying to get back to [the playoffs]. So all that matters is this one [game]."

However, the SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model don't necessarily agree with Campbell that Sunday's game against the NFC West-leading Rams (10-3) is a must-win game for Detroit. Los Angeles is a 5.5-point favorite over the Lions.

Certainly a victory on Sunday would help Detroit's chances immensely. The Lions (8-5) sit in third place in the NFC North behind the Packers (9-3-1) and Bears (9-4). Also, if the season ended today, Detroit would just miss out on the playoffs as the No. 8 team in the seven-team NFC postseason bracket.

Because the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is not projecting a Lions upset over Los Angeles, Detroit would boost its playoff chances from 52.0% to 71.4% with an unexpected win over the Rams. However, its chances only drop to 36.9% with a loss.

Why would the Lions still have a greater than 1/3 chance to reach the postseason if they lose on Sunday? The schedule gives them a chance to make up ground on the team they need to catch: Chicago.

Remember: Even though Detroit is one game behind the Bears, the Lions beat Chicago in Week 2. If Detroit beats the Bears in the regular season finale and finishes with at least the same record, the Lions would get into the playoffs before Chicago because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. (The Projection Model gives Detroit a 56.0% chance to beat the Bears in Week 18.)

In addition, according to the model, the Lions have a much easier remaining schedule than Chicago. The model gives Detroit a 56.0% chance or better to win in three of its final four games but gives the Bears a 45.0% chance or less to win in three of its final four games.

	Lions' win chance	Bears' win chance
Week 15	47% (at LAR)	74% (CLE)
Week 16	68% (PIT)	45% (GB)
Week 17	71% (at MIN)	40 (at SF)
Week 18	56% (at CHI)	43% (DET)

"[To make the playoffs] Detroit probably has to win at least 11 games and just needs to win the games it is favored in the rest of the way," according to Stephen Oh, SportsLine's principal data engineer and the man behind the model.

Sunday's game will be the fourth time that Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and Lions quarterback Jared Goff have faced their former teams since they were traded for each other in March 2021. Goff and Detroit have won the last two meetings, including last season's matchup in Week 1.

"We want to kind of be on this up ramp by the time we hit the playoffs where we are this dangerous team who can kind of go toe-to-toe with anybody," Goff said earlier this week. "That's what you want, and we're right there. If we're able to win one at a time, who knows what can happen?