NFL predictions: Here is every AFC's team's best path to Super Bowl LX

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For just the second time in seven years, the AFC will have a team other than the Kansas City Chiefs as its representative in NFL's championship game. The road to Super Bowl LX begins with Wild Card Weekend but will not be traveled by the Chiefs, who appeared in the "big game" five of the last six seasons but posted a 6-11 record this campaign and failed to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

The Denver Broncos (14-3) finished as the No. 1 seed in the conference and received a first-round bye. Two AFC wild card games take place Sunday, with the third-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) hosting the No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5) on CBS at 1 p.m. ET and the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) visiting the No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3) at 8 p.m. ET. Wild Card Weekend concludes Monday night as the No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) host the fifth-seeded Houston Texans (12-5) at 8:15 p.m. ET.

Denver is the favorite to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy among the AFC teams as it is listed at +650 at DraftKings Sportsbook. However, the Broncos are only the third favorite to win the "big game" behind a pair of NFC West rivals, as the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks are +330 and the No. 5 Los Angeles Rams are +425.

The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and its projection model have crunched the numbers and have a slightly different take. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has Denver winning the championship in 16.2% of its simulations, second only to Seattle (22.3%).

The ITL team's model has identified each AFC team's most favorable paths to Santa Clara on Feb. 8. Here they are:

Denver Broncos

As the No. 1 seed, Denver needs only two victories to make its first trip to the "big game" since 2015, when it defeated the Carolina Panthers 24-10 in Super Bowl 50 for its third championship. The Broncos will play their first playoff game - and should they win it, also their second - at home, where they went 7-1 during the regular season.

The model gives Denver more than a 53% chance to defeat every other AFC team in the postseason and a better than 52% chance to beat four of the seven NFC clubs in the "big game." It says the Broncos should be pulling for the Chargers to upset the Patriots on Sunday, as it feels Denver has the best chance to post a win against Jim Harbaugh's squad (65.1%) than any other team in the conference. Conversely, the model views Jacksonville (46.5%) as the AFC club most likely to knock off the Broncos, especially since the Jaguars posted a 34-20 victory at Denver in Week 16.

Seattle is the obvious team the Broncos - and every other AFC club - would want to avoid in the Super Bowl should they get there, and the model's simulations have them beating the Seahawks a mere 42.5% of the time. It also doesn't like their chances against two other clubs as they defeat the defending champions Philadelphia Eagles in only 46.7% of the simulations, even though Denver won 21-17 in the City of Brotherly Love in Week 5, and the Rams just 47.2% of the time.

OPPONENT	BRONCOS' AVERAGE WIN %
New England Patriots	54.4
Jacksonville Jaguars	53.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	62.7
Houston Texans	57.2
Buffalo Bills	57.4
Los Angeles Chargers	65.1

New England Patriots

After back-to-back 4-13 seasons under two different head coaches, the Patriots made an incredible turnaround in their first year with Mike Vrabel at the helm and ended Buffalo's five-year reign in the AFC East. They only faced two of the conference's other six playoff teams during the regular season, however, and went 1-2 against them.

The model says Patriots got the second-best matchup they could in the wild card round, as they defeat the Chargers in 61.5% of simulations. They'll be hoping Buffalo and Pittsburgh emerge victorious this weekend, which would set up a meeting with the Steelers in the divisional round. According to the model, New England's best matchup in the AFC is against Pittsburgh, which it defeats 62.2% of the time in the simulations.

Since Seattle is the worst Super Bowl matchup for every AFC team, the Patriots - like Denver - should want to avoid the Eagles and Rams the most if they make it to Santa Clara. The model says New England defeats Philadelphia in just 47.4% of its simulations and the Rams 47.6% of the time.

OPPONENT	PATRIOTS' AVERAGE WIN %
Denver Broncos	45.6
Jacksonville Jaguars	50.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	62.2
Houston Texans	53.0
Buffalo Bills	55.7
Los Angeles Chargers	61.5

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars enter the postseason with an eight-game winning streak and went 3-1 against AFC playoff teams during the regular season. During the eight-game run, Jacksonville became the lone club to defeat Denver at Empower Field in 2025.

According to the model, the Jaguars have favorable matchups against every team in the conference other than the Broncos and Patriots, defeating all four in at least 51% of its simulations. The model also says the AFC South champions get past every NFC club not named the Seahawks more than 50% of the time, with Philadelphia (49.8%) giving them the most difficult battle.

OPPONENT	JAGUARS' AVERAGE WIN %
Denver Broncos	46.5
New England Patriots	49.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.6
Houston Texans	59.9
Buffalo Bills	51.0
Los Angeles Chargers	66.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

The model is not a big supporter of the Steelers, who won four of their last five regular season games and edged the Baltimore Ravens 26-24 in a drama-filled finale to capture their first AFC North title since 2020. Pittsburgh went 1-5 against all NFL playoff teams this campaign and lost two of three versus AFC clubs, although the lone victory was recorded in New England in Week 3.

The Steelers have unfavorable matchups with every team in their conference except the Chargers, whom they beat in almost 60% of the model's simulations. Surprisingly, those simulations say Pittsburgh defeats two NFC clubs more than 50% of the time, with Carolina (64.8%) being its most preferred opponent in the Super Bowl and Chicago (51%) coming in second.

OPPONENT	STEELERS' AVERAGE WIN %
Denver Broncos	37.3
New England Patriots	37.8
Jacksonville Jaguars	34.4
Houston Texans	48.6
Buffalo Bills	48.4
Los Angeles Chargers	59.7

Houston Texans

While Jacksonville is red hot as it enters the postseason, the Texans are downright sizzling. Houston, which began the regular season with a three-game losing streak, won its final nine contests and finished just one game behind the Jaguars in its quest for a third consecutive AFC South title.

The Texans posted wins against three of the four AFC playoff teams they faced in 2025, and the model believes two of those clubs (Bills and Chargers) provide their best matchups in the postseason. Its simulations say Houston defeats both the Chargers (67.3%) and Buffalo (63.4%) more than 63% of the time while giving the Texans a 51.4% chance to beat Pittsburgh, their actual opponent in the wild card round.

Like the Jaguars, Houston has a better than 50% chance to win against every NFC playoff team other than Seattle in the "big game," according to the model. It says Carolina (69.4%), Chicago (58.1%) and San Francisco (57.2%) are the clubs the Texans should hope to meet in Santa Clara should they get there.

OPPONENT	TEXANS' AVERAGE WIN %
Denver Broncos	42.8
New England Patriots	47.0
Jacksonville Jaguars	40.1
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.4
Buffalo Bills	63.4
Los Angeles Chargers	67.3

Buffalo Bills

The Bills won five of their final six regular season contests but still were unable to overtake New England and win their sixth consecutive AFC East title. Still, with Kansas City and Baltimore failing to reach the postseason, reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen will feel immense pressure to lead Buffalo to its first Super Bowl appearance since its unprecedented four-year run from 1990-93.

Only two matchups are favorable for the Bills in the AFC playoffs, as they defeat the Chargers in 67.6% of the model's simulations and the Steelers 51.6% of the time. If Buffalo manages to get over the hump and make it to Santa Clara, the model says it would have unfavorable matchups against the NFC's big three in Seattle (41.9%), Philadelphia (45.9%) and the Rams (46.6%).

OPPONENT	BILLS' AVERAGE WIN %
Denver Broncos	42.6
New England Patriots	44.3
Jacksonville Jaguars	49.0
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.6
Houston Texans	36.6
Los Angeles Chargers	67.6

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers still were in the hunt for their first AFC West title since 2009, when they resided in San Diego, before ending the regular season with losses to the Texans and Broncos. They also were defeated by the Jaguars in Week 11 before going on their bye and then reeling off four consecutive victories.

As expected for a No. 7 seed, the Chargers don't have a favorable matchup in the AFC playoffs as the model's simulations give them a better than 39% chance against only the Steelers. Should the club become the first seventh seed to make it to the Super Bowl, the only opponent the model sees them beating in the Panthers (61.3%).

OPPONENT	CHARGERS' AVERAGE WIN %
Denver Broncos	34.9
New England Patriots	38.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	33.5
Pittsburgh Steelers	40.3
Houston Texans	32.7
Buffalo Bills	32.4