NFL predictions: Quantifying the difference between the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds in the NFC, according to model
How much more beneficial is the No. 5 seed versus the No. 6 seed in the NFC? The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model have the answer
A degree in rocket science is not required to conclude that earning the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoff bracket is more beneficial to being the No. 6 seed. But just how much more beneficial is it?
The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model have crunched the numbers, and the answer is significant.
To review: The coveted No. 1 seed in the NFC will go to the winner of Saturday's showdown between the Seattle Seahawks (13-3) and San Francisco 49ers (12-4). The No. 2 seed will be either the NFC North champion Bears (11-5) or the NFC East champion Eagles (11-5), while the No. 3 seed will be the other. And the No. 4 seed will be the champion of the NFC South, either the Carolina Panthers (8-8) or Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9).
The intrigue begins with the No. 5 seed. Any of the Seahawks, 49ers or Rams (11-5) could end up in that spot. It's a nice consolation prize for not winning the NFC West and earning the No. 1 seed because the team with the No. 5 seed would play a wild card playoff game on the road against either the Panthers or Buccaneers. The alternative would be the No. 6 seed, which would mean a road game against either the Bears or Eagles.
The Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, releases a weekly power rating, and in the latest version, Tampa Bay (17th) and Carolina (25th) are the two worst teams in the entire league still vying for a playoff berth. Meanwhile Philadelphia, the defending Super Bowl champion, remains No. 2 in the power ratings and would be a much more daunting opponent than the NFC South champion, according to the model.
| NFL rank | Team | Neutral win% |
| 1 | Seahawks | 65.7% |
| 2 | Eagles | 63.8% |
| 3 | Rams | 63.6% |
| 5 | Packers | 61.7% |
| 9 | 49ers | 58.5% |
| 15 | Bears | 54.2% |
| 17 | Buccaneers | 49.4% |
| 25 | Panthers | 42.8% |
The SportsLine Inside the Lines team ran simulations on each of the three NFC West teams' chances to win the NFC and Super Bowl based on their possible seeding scenarios. According to the model, a team's chance to win the NFC and Super Bowl decreases by roughly 40% when dropping from the No. 5 seed to the No. 6 seed.
| Seahawks | Chance to win NFC | Chance to win Super Bowl |
| As 1 seed | 39.7% | 22.5% |
| As 5 seed (vs. Panthers) | 20.5% | 11.7% |
| 49ers | Chance to win NFC | Chance to win Super Bowl |
| As 1 seed | 29.0% | 14.3% |
| As 5 seed (vs. Panthers) | 11.0% | 5.4% |
| As 6 seed | 6.4% | 3.1% |
| Rams | Chance to win NFC | Chance to win Super Bowl |
| As 5 seed (vs. Panthers) | 16.7% | 9.1% |
| As 6 seed | 10.8% | 5.9% |
If the 49ers beat the Seahawks on Saturday to win the NFC West and No. 1 seed, then Seattle will be the No. 5 seed. However if the Seahawks win, then the No. 5 seed will go to the Rams (with a win over the Cardinals on Sunday) or San Francisco (with a Los Angeles loss or tie).
The Rams are a 7.5-point favorites over Arizona in the latest odds from DraftKings, but those odds could change drastically, especially if the 49ers win, locking Los Angeles into the No. 6 seed.
"At the end of the day, it's about us," Rams defensive lineman Kobie Turner said after Monday night's loss to the Falcons. "Like I said before, I don't care where we go. I don't care who we have to play. I'm taking my guys and my team over anybody else."
