NFL Week 18 betting roundup: Stafford makes MVP statement, huge Survivor contest pays out
SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein breaks down how bettors and sportsbooks fared in Week 18 of the 2025 NFL season

Matthew Stafford, who had lost the MVP lead entering the final week of the regular season, appeared to seize the award with a four-touchdown performance in Sunday's 37-20 win over Arizona.
BetMGM listed Stafford as the -135 favorite late Sunday night, with Drake Maye getting +105. Before Sunday, the book had Maye as a massive -325 favorite, Stafford coming back at +240. Other books had Maye as even a more prohibitive favorite.
"There's a lot of steam on MVP back toward Stafford," Chrisitan Cipollini, BetMGM trading manager, told CBS Sports. "We kind of felt the Maye hype was a bit overblown and tried to stay shorter on Stafford, but you never know with awards."
All NFL awards will be announced at the NFL honors event Feb. 5. Only regular-season accomplishments are considered.
Stafford, 37, led much of the season as the Rams zeroed in on the NFC's top seed. But L.A.'s stunning overtime loss at Seattle in Week 16 opened things up, even though Stafford played brilliantly. That's because the MVP typically goes to a division winner that finishes as a top-2 seed.
Maye vaulted ahead in Week 17 when the second-year pro threw five touchdowns against the Jets -- the day before Stafford faltered in Atlanta. Stafford's three-interception Monday night performance, in a 27-24 loss, seemingly ended his candidacy.
Things didn't look any better in the third quarter Sunday, with L.A, trailing 20-16 to the lowly Cardinals. Then Stafford led three straight touchdown drives of 76, 66 and 81 yards, capping each with a scoring pass.
Stafford finished with 42 touchdown passes, compared to Maye's 30, and each threw eight interceptions. Stafford threw for more yards too, but Maye bested Stafford in several categories, like completion percentage and yards per attempt.
The award might come down to Stafford playing a much tougher schedule. Voters were reminded of that Saturday night, when the Seahawks' defense completely shut down San Francisco.
In two meetings with Seattle's elite defense, Stafford threw for 587 yards and five touchdowns without an interception.
McMillan closes it out
Tyler Shough's longshot bid for Offensive Rookie of the Year ended in a 19-17 loss in Atlanta.
Shough was in position to lead New Orleans to a comeback win, trailing 16-10 with a few minutes left. It would have been the Saints' fffth straight victory. And the feat would have been super-impressive given Shough didn't have his top weapon, Chris Olave.
But facing third-and-7 from the Falcons' 20-yard line with 3:24 left, Atlanta corner Dee Alford jumped a route and intercepted Shough, returning the ball 59 yards.
That all but sewed up the award for Panthers wideout Tetairoa McMillan. He caught four passes for 85 yards in Week 18 at Tampa Bay, finishing the season with 70 catches for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns. McMillan is now a massive -1000 favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors.
And thanks to the Falcons' win, McMillan is going to the playoffs. Carolina clinched the NFC South via a three-way tie with Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
Five share $18.7M Survivor prize
Six Circa Survivor entries, out of 18,718, were still alive entering Week 18. One contestant, who was on the Bengals, sadly watched the Browns kick a 49-yard, game-winning field goal as time expired.
That allowed the five other entries (two on Minnesota, one apiece on New England, Atlanta and Jacksonville) to take home $3,743,600 apiece.
"The energy inside Circa was at an alltime high with four of the six remaining Circa Survivor contestants on property and six and seven-figure hedges in play," Circa owner Derek Stevens said.
Jeff Benson, Circa Sports' director of sportsbook operations, estimated that next season's Circa Survivor would draw somewhere between 20,000 and 25,000 entries. With each entry costing $1,000, that translates to a $20 million to $25 million prize.















