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Paul Blackburn takes the mound for the first time since Aug. 23 when the New York Mets visit the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday for the opener of a four-game series between the division leaders. Blackburn was acquired from the then-Oakland Athletics last July and went 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA in five starts with the Mets before being shut down for the season due to a spinal leak in his back. The 31-year-old right-hander then experienced inflammation in his right knee during training camp, delaying his 2025 debut.

The Mets have won seven of their last eight contests to move one game ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the National League East. New York, which is beginning a seven-game road trip, posted a 5-3 victory over the Colorado Rockies on Sunday to complete a three-game sweep.

Los Angeles, which lost two of three at New York in the first rematch of last year's NL Championship Series less than two weeks ago, will counter with Dustin May (3-4, 4.20), who is coming off back-to-back victories. The 27-year-old righty has been much better at home than on the road this season, posting a 2.96 ERA at Dodger Stadium against a 5.40 mark in opposing stadiums. 

The Dodgers sit two games ahead of the San Diego Padres in the NL West despite having their bid for a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees dashed with a 7-3 loss on Sunday. 

Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player prop for May (Over +114, Under -150) at 5.5 but have not set one for Blackburn. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates May Over 5.5 as a 3.5-star play on its five-star scale.

However, the model has found better value on Monday's seven-game schedule. There are three pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 4.5 stars, including one that would pay plus money. Here they are:

Richard Fitts Over 3.5 strikeouts (+141) vs. Angels (7:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts

Fitts remains in search of his first major-league win as he makes his ninth career start and fifth this season. The 25-year-old right-hander worked three scoreless innings against the Milwaukee Brewers last time out as he was returning from a stint on the injured list due to a right pectoral strain and recorded just two strikeouts. But he went Over this number in each of his first three turns this year and set a career high by fanning five batters over five frames versus the Chicago White Sox in the outing prior to his injury.

Stephen Kolek Over 3.5 strikeouts (-130) vs. Giants (9:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

Kolek was credited with the win against the Miami Marlins in his last outing despite allowing six runs and recording only three strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings. The 28-year-old righty went Over this number in each of his first four starts this season, the first four of his major-league career. Kolek fanned at least four batters in each of those turns and set a personal best on May 10 with seven strikeouts as he tossed a five-hit shutout against the Rockies in his second career start.

Logan Webb Over 4.5 strikeouts (-156) vs. Padres (9:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts

Webb is fourth in the NL and tied for seventh in the majors with 84 strikeouts across 73 1/3 innings this year. The 28-year-old righty has gone Over this number in all but one of his 12 starts in 2025 and posted his third double-digit strikeout performance of the season in his last outing, fanning 10 batters over six frames against the Detroit Tigers. Webb faced the Padres in San Diego on Apr. 29 and struck out six in five innings.