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Former Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom faces his old team for the first time when the Texas Rangers and New York Mets open a three-game series at Citi Field in Queens on Friday. Between 2014 and 2022, deGrom went 82-57 and won two Cy Young Awards while pitching for the Mets. He also helped lead New York to three playoff appearances, including a World Series berth in 2015. After the 2022 season, he signed a free agent contract with the Rangers.

Both Texas and New York enter the series fighting for their playoff lives. The Mets (76-71) have lost six in a row and are clinging to a 1.5-game lead over the Giants and Reds for the third and final wild card spot in the National League. Meanwhile, the Rangers (77-70) have won four in a row and are just two games behind the Astros for the last wild card spot in the American League. 

On Friday, deGrom (11-7, 2.78 ERA) will square off against New York righty Jonah Tong (1-1, 4.09). Top sportsbooks have set both deGrom's and Tong's total pitcher strikeout prop at 5.5. The SportsLine Inside the Lines team model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Tong Under 5.5 as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and deGrom Over 5.5 as a 3.5-star play.

However, neither play is among the model's top three pitcher strikeout props on Friday's schedule. Instead, the model has found three pitcher strikeout props are rated at 4.5 stars, including two that would pay plus money.

Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts

This is a strangely low total for the Orioles lefty, who is pitching arguably better than any starter in baseball right now. Rogers (8-2, 1.51) has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in 12 of 15 starts this season, including seven in a row. He also has gone deep in games, pitching at least six innings in 10 of his last 11 starts. Even though the Blue Jays don't strike out much at all (averaging a league-low 6.77 strikeouts per game this season), they have yet to face Rogers this year.

Luis Gil Over 4.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

The 27-year-old Yankees righty is coming off the best start of 2025: one run on three hits in six innings against the AL East-leading Blue Jays. Even though he has gone Over 4.5 strikeouts in just three of seven starts this season, Gil (3-1, 3.31) showed swing-and-miss stuff against the Red Sox last year, striking out nine and six batters in two starts. Boston averages 8.80 strikeouts per game this season; just six teams average more.

Luis Castillo Under 6.5 strikeouts vs. Angels (10:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.4 strikeouts

This is the ITL model's best pitcher strikeout prop for Friday. Castillo (9-8, 3.85) has gone Under 6.5 strikeouts in 25 of 29 starts this season, including eight starts in a row. Even though the Angels strike out more than any team in baseball (9.87 strikeouts per game), they hit the Mariners righty hard in their only game against him this season: six runs on eight hits in five innings on June 7. Also, Seattle is in a dogfight with the Astros for the AL West title, so Castillo doesn't figure to have a long leash if he gets into trouble.