WNBA picks today: Best bets include Sabrina Ionescu prop
With two games on the schedule, check out Thursday's WNBA best bets and predictions

There are two games on the WNBA slate on Thursday night, with one of them featuring one of the WNBA's two undefeated teams and the other featuring one of the league's two winless teams. The 4-0 New York Liberty host the 2-2 Golden State Valkyries at 7 p.m. ET in a rematch of Tuesday's matchup, followed by Angel Reese and the 0-4 Chicago Sky squaring off against Paige Bueckers and the 1-4 Dallas Wings in the Windy City at 8 p.m. ET.
Looking to get in on WNBA betting at the best betting sites? Want to play WNBA player props? Let's check out the top plays from this slate -- including a player prop wager -- with odds from FanDuel and DraftKings.
Valkyries +18 -108 (1 unit, DraftKings)
There is an interesting trend with the Liberty during the Breanna Stewart-Sabrina Ionescu-Jonquel Jones Big 3 era when they play the same opponent in consecutive games during the regular season.
There have been nine instances of the Liberty playing two straight games vs. the same team since that trio first joined forces ahead of the 2023 season. In the first leg, the Liberty have won by an average of 14.5 points per game. In the second leg, the Liberty have won by an average of 10.1 per game. That may not seem like too big of a difference, so let me provide more context.
In eight of those nine instances, the Liberty had a bigger win margin in the first matchup compared to the second matchup. The one exception was when they played the Dallas Wings last season, winning their first battle by 14 points before absolutely crushing them by 28 points the second time around. That 28-point blowout was the only time New York won by more than 14 points in a second matchup. In the other eight instances (so if you remove that 32-point victory over the Wings), the Liberty's average win margin is 7.4 in those second matchups.
I'm not sure whether it's due to opponents feeling more comfortable facing the Liberty the second time around, or if it's the Liberty somewhat playing with their food a little bit, but this is certainly a noticeable pattern to me. New York just trounced Golden State by 28 points on Tuesday at home, so this sets up a sleepier spot for the Liberty with these two facing each other once again in Brooklyn on Thursday. An 18-point spread is a tough one to cover, especially if you aren't as sharp, as we've consistently seen with the Liberty facing an opponent for a second straight game.
If there is one weakness for the Liberty, it's their effort on the glass, as they give up a WNBA-worst 11.5 offensive rebounds per game to opponents along with grabbing a WNBA-low 6.3 offensive rebounds per game of their own. This is a Valkyries team that leads the WNBA in 3-pointers attempted per game (33.0) too, so if they're getting more shots up and winning the math battle, I like their chances to cover this giant spread.
Sabrina Ionescu Over 15.5 points -114 (0.5 units, FanDuel)
So if I'm thinking this Valkyries-Liberty rematch will be a closer one the second time around, that would likely mean that the Liberty stars are going to be playing more than the first matchup on Tuesday. As a result, I think this is a nice buy-low spot on Ionescu.
Her points per game average has dropped from 18.2 last season to 13.8 through four games in this campaign. But with the Liberty as the clear best team in the WNBA, there will be times when Ionescu's minutes are cut short because of fourth-quarter blowouts --which has happened in two of the first four games (20 minutes against Sky, 27 minutes vs. Valkyries). Against the Valkyries last time out, in which the Liberty won by 28, she attempted a season-low eight shots and put up only 8 points. Last year, though, there were 14 games the Liberty won by a double-digit margin. In those 14 games, Ionescu averaged 19.3 points, so she has shown that she can feast on inferior competition like Golden State.
The Valkyries have played more zone defense than any other WNBA team, and with how strong the Liberty's passing is, there will be open looks available. I also think the Valkyries will zero in more on Breanna Stewart after she lit them up for 24 points on 10-of-14 shooting on Tuesday.
To be honest, my first look here was to target Ionescu's first-quarter points prop, but I didn't love the value with it being at 5.5 and the Over priced at -132. I think she'll be firing early coming off that lower-scoring effort, but I still like her full-game Over enough to make it a half-unit play.
Season Record: 6-5, +3.94 units
















