Can No. 25 Alabama hold on to the fifth spot in the SEC? Plus, other best bets for Wednesday

The under is 8-1 in Alabama's last nine games against teams with a winning record

By Tom Fornelli

Mar 2, 2022 at 4:45 pm ET • 5 min read

The Arizona Cardinals announced contract extensions for general manager Steve Keim and coach Kliff Kingsbury earlier today. The timing of the moves was interesting, considering all the drama with quarterback Kyler Murray and his desire for a contract extension of his own. Many speculate that a Murray extension could soon follow, considering that Murray and Kingsbury share an agent.

That might matter, but it shouldn't. The Cardinals have nothing to gain from a business and team-building perspective by giving Kyler the deal he wants now. Murray's performance or the team's belief in his abilities are irrelevant to the discussion. The only relevant information the Cardinals need is that there is nothing more valuable in the NFL than a QB on a rookie contract, especially when that QB is The Guy for your franchise.

Quarterbacks are expensive! There's a significant chance that Mitch Trubisky will sign a contract to be somebody's starting QB this offseason, and he'll be paid more than Kyler Murray in 2022. That's ridiculous from a production standpoint, but that's the market, and that's why Arizona would be foolish to give Murray a new deal now. If they want to do it next offseason to reduce the risk of hurt feelings and Murray hitting the open market after 2023 (assuming they pick up his fifth-year option, which, I mean, duh), fine. But not now.

What they should do now is read these stories.

Now, if Kyler Murray needs more money, maybe I can help him win some with these picks.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

🏀 Texas A&M at No. 25 Alabama, 7 p.m. | TV: SEC Network

The Pick: Under 151.5 (-110)
Key Trend: The under is 8-1 in Alabama's last nine games against teams with a winning record.

Late November and March are my favorite times of the college basketball season for one simple reason: afternoon basketball. Conference tournaments have begun, which means I'm watching fine student-athletes competing on the court as I write this, and if given the option of having music or sports on in the background while writing, I'm choosing sports every time.

Of course, while some conferences have entered their postseason, others are still wrapping up the regular season. That includes the SEC, where Alabama hopes to finish in the top four and get the additional bye. However, they still need a win to hold off the glut of Florida, South Carolina, LSU and Mississippi State behind them. Tonight's game is Senior Night and the most winnable of the two remaining games on the Tide's schedule -- but I'm not interested in the spread. I'd lean the Aggies if forced to, but there's so much more value on this total as I have it being nearly five points too high.

The Aggies are not a great team. They've won three of their last four, but two came against Georgia and Ole Miss. Overall, this is a team that's struggled offensively against better teams. It hasn't struggled nearly as much defensively and has been better on that end during conference play than Alabama. Neither of these teams shoots well from beyond the arc -- they're both under 30% from three in conference play -- but they are decent inside the arc and formidable defensively in that area. Also, A&M is good at forcing turnovers, which is an area Alabama struggles with as it tries to move at 100 mph all the time.

One sloppy stretch of basketball in this game will put the over in serious jeopardy, and last I checked, this is college basketball. There's always a sloppy stretch right around the corner.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model has a strong lean toward one side of the total as well. The only question is are we're aligned, or if things are about to get awkward.

💰 The Picks

🏀 College Basketball

Notre Dame at Florida State, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN2

The Pick: Florida State +3 (-110) -- I'm good friends with the only Notre Dame graduate in history to care more about the basketball team than the football team, and he assures me there's no way the Irish should be favored on the road against anybody. Now, since he's one of my friends, there's no reason to trust his judgment, so his opinion has no impact on this play, but I'll admit that it was nice to hear the reassurance.

Because Notre Dame is in second place in the ACC, and it's not that good of a basketball team. The Irish might be 21-8 on the season, but they're only 2-6 against teams ranked in the top 50 by KenPom. If you prefer the NCAA's NET rankings, the Irish are 2-6 against Quad 1 opponents, too. In other words, they've taken advantage of the ACC being bad this season.

Now, Florida State isn't a Quad 1 opponent. The Seminoles are one of the primary reasons the ACC is down this season because they've failed to live up to their own standards. Still, in this matchup, at home, their length should cause the Irish enough problems to allow them to cover the spread at a minimum.

Key Trend: Notre Dame is 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite.

🏀 NBA

Blazers at Suns, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN

The Pick: Blazers +13 (-110) -- This might come as a shock to you, but the Suns aren't as good without Chris Paul as they are with him. I know -- it's earth-shattering stuff. With Paul, Phoenix is a team capable of winning an NBA title. Without Paul, it's merely pretty good. On the season, Phoenix ranks third in the NBA in offensive rating at 113.6 and first in net rating at 7.8. In three games without Chris Paul, the team's offensive rating has risen to 115.6 (10th), but its defensive rating has spiked to 114.1 (20th) for an overall net rating of 1.5 (15th).

Well, the spread for tonight's game is taking into account Phoenix's entire season, not the last three games. And it should. A three-game sample size doesn't tell us nearly as much as over 60 games do, but this is still a spot we can exploit. The Blazers haven't been good since the NBA trade deadline, but they haven't been awful, either. The market hasn't paid much attention to this, which led to this spread being a few points too large. I don't expect this line to have stayed here by tip-off, but if you can still get Portland anywhere better than +11, take it.

Key Trend: The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model's favorite NBA play of the day is on the spread between the New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings.