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In their season opener, the No. 13-ranked Michigan Wolverines looked like a team capable of contending for the Big Ten title. They will look to avoid a letdown Saturday when they host a Michigan State club that would love to erase the memory of its own dreadful season opener by pulling an upset against its in-state rival. Last week, the Wolverines were productive in all phases of their 49-24 road victory over No. 21-ranked Minnesota. Conversely, the Spartans stumbled in a 38-27 home loss to Rutgers in the first game under new coach Mel Tucker. 

Kickoff is set for noon ET from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are 21.5-point favorites, down from opening at -24.5, and the over-under for total points scored is 51 in the latest Michigan vs. Michigan State odds from William Hill. Before making any Michigan State vs. Michigan picks, check out the college football predictions from SportsLine's Mike Tierney, given the impressive run he's on picking games involving these programs.

The veteran sportswriter, whose work has appeared in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, has covered college football of all levels for decades. He has emerged as one of SportsLine's annual leading analysts in all sports and is in the middle of another strong football season for SportsLine members as he heads into Week 9 on a 4-0 run with his against-the-spread college football picks. 

What's more, he has had a keen sense for the trajectories of these programs, posting a 17-5 record on spread picks involving the Spartans or Wolverines. Anyone who has consistently followed him has seen massive returns.

Now, Tierney has set his sights on Michigan vs. Michigan State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college football odds from William Hill and trends for Michigan State vs. Michigan:

  • Michigan vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan -21.5
  • Michigan vs. Michigan State over-under: 51 points
  • Michigan vs. Michigan State money line: Michigan -1700, Michigan State +950
  • MSU: The Spartans have covered five of the last six meetings at Michigan.
  • MICH: The Wolverines have covered their last four games as a home favorite.

Why Michigan can cover

The primary questions surrounding the Wolverines came on offense, where they are looking to replace several key contributors from last season. This started with finding an heir apparent to talented but erratic quarterback Shea Patterson, who went undrafted after two years at the helm but received a tryout with the Kansas City Chiefs. Patterson completed just 56 percent of his passes last year and many of his eight interceptions were drive killers at crucial junctures.

Junior Joe Milton attempted just 11 passes combined in his first two seasons behind Patterson, but his first start in the maize and blue was a resounding success. He completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 225 yards and two scores without turning the ball over. He also showed the dual-threat ability that coach Jim Harbaugh prefers at the position as the 6-5, 245-pound signal-caller used physical runs to pick up numerous first downs and to find the end zone once from short yardage. Milton also appeared confident going through progressions as nine different Wolverines caught passes, led by Ronnie Bell with four for 74 yards.

Why Michigan State can cover

The Wolverines will need to be sharp again to fight off a challenge from is bound to be a hungry and desperate Spartans club that suffered some embarrassment with a home loss to Rutgers as a two-touchdown favorite.

Mistakes were the story of their downfall, highlighted by seven turnovers that repeatedly handed short fields to the Scarlet Knights. Michigan State fell behind early by 18 points and never recovered, but there were still some bright spots in the first game under the leadership of Tucker, who joined the program following one year at Colorado.

When the Spartans weren't committing turnovers, they were fairly efficient on offense and ended up with a 369-276 edge in total yardage. Rocky Lombardi completed 31-of-43 passes for 319 yards and three scores to go along with two interceptions. Four Spartans had at least five catches and Jaylen Reed led the way with 11 grabs for 128 yards and two scores.

How to make Michigan vs. Michigan State picks

Tierney has analyzed this matchup and while he's leaning under the total, he has discovered a crucial x-factor he believes makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Michigan State vs. Michigan? And what crucial x-factor causes one side of the spread to hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Michigan vs. Michigan State spread to jump on Saturday, all from the expert who's on a 17-5 spread run picking games involving the Spartans or Wolverines, and find out.