Second round, second round, third round, fourth round, third round, third round.
That's where Giancarlo Stanton has gone in each of our first six mock drafts so far, and the consensus rankings on FantasyPros.com have him going 36th overall, barely inside the third round.
That wouldn't be such a bad spot for a player like Freddie Freeman, who has risen to that level after a gangbusters second half. But for one like Stanton, it's a stunning change of course. He has been a fixture in the first round since he was old enough to vote, is still in the thick of his prime at 27 and, just a few months ago, confirmed his standing as the most powerful hitter in the game with a Home Run Derby for the ages.
And if you don't know where he stacks up in terms of exit velocity, you can find out here. Yup, 20 of last year's 50 hardest-hit balls belonged to him.
So regardless of Stanton's actual numbers, his ability to whack a baseball is still in a different stratosphere from everyone else. That hasn't changed.
But maybe our sensibilities have.
See, for all of his raw power, he has never once turned in a 40-homer season. And maybe that's just a technicality, a side effect of all the games he has missed. By the percentages, it's pretty obvious he knows how to actualize his power. But he has had 6 1/2 seasons to meet that not-so-lofty threshold, and he hasn't. Not once.
We've rationalized it in the past by pointing out that the injuries were the result of freak accidents and not at all predictive in nature. A groin strain here, a shoulder bruise there, a broken hand there, a smashed face here -- it was more a serious of unfortunate events than an actionable pattern.
But after 6 1/2 years, that excuse is wearing thin. Only once in the past five years has he played even 125 games, which is about a month less than a typical everyday player, and he has averaged 115.4 during that stretch.
You know the definition of insanity, right? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results? It's a tired cliche, but cliches become cliches because of the wisdom therein. At some point, you have to stop blaming forces of nature and instead look in the mirror and admit you were wrong for drafting him where you did.
I think we've finally reached that point. He has burned enough people over the past five years, repeatedly ranking outside the top 40 outfielders in Head-to-Head points leagues -- again, because of all the injuries and not how he performed when healthy -- and they may not have won because of it. It's hard to tally up wins when your best player is sidelined for so long.
The timing is also notable because last year was the first of his many injury-plagued years when the production didn't measure up. He still hit 27 home runs in 413 at-bats, which was a fairly normal rate for him, but his batting average (along with his line-drive rate) declined by so much that he averaged 2.66 Head-to-Head points per game. For comparison, Nick Markakis averaged 2.64.
Oh, you and your Head-to-Head points leagues. I play on Super Sports Site X, and they don't cater to these goofy formats.
OK, fine. Let's talk standard Rotisserie. I'll admit Stanton has held up better there since the end totals are all that matter and not the starts and stops along the way.
Let's say last season was just an aberration. He's still in his prime, after all, and started the year pretty miserably, batting .193 over his first 2 1/2 months. Maybe he just didn't get enough time to correct that number. Let's even say this is the year he manages to avoid the freak injury. It's bound to happen at some point. We'll take the enormous leap that it's now. So he hits his usual .265 and finally crosses that 40-homer threshold.
Would it be all it's cracked up to be?
With the way offense has trended lately, I'm not so sure. Home run totals have exploded over the past two years, to the point that they're not exactly a priority in the early rounds. And that's mostly what Stanton provides. Some RBI as well, but those go hand in hand with home runs.
Wouldn't he be just as affected by the power spike and possibly eclipse 50 homers? Maybe not. The middle class of power hitters has benefited most from the league-wide trend:
| | ||||||||
| 20-29 | 30-39 | 40-49 | 50-plus | |||||
| 2012 | 52 | 21 | 6 | 0 | ||||
| 2013 | 56 | 12 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 2014 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| 2015 | 44 | 11 | 9 | 0 | ||||
| 2016 | 73 | 30 | 8 | 0 | ||||
A healthy Stanton would be sort of like Mark Trumbo was last year. Maybe he'd have more run-scoring potential because of his superior on-base ability, and certainly he'd be at lower risk of bottoming out. But the Trumbo who led the majors in home runs last year --with nearly 50, by the way -- wasn't exactly pulling even with Mookie Betts and Kris Bryant. He ranked between Nelson Cruz and Ryan Braun in Rotisserie leagues.
That's not first-round material. That's more like third-round material. And that's assuming Stanton stays healthy and doesn't face the calamities we all expect him to face while also bouncing back from a down year.
And that's Stanton bursting your watermelon-sized bubble. On second thought, maybe Round 3 is too early.
