Justin Turner has had a lot of trouble staying healthy in his career. Going back to his time with the Mets, here are the injuries that have landed Turner on the DL, according to ProSportsTransactions.com:

  • Sprained right ankle (May, 2011)
  • Strained intercostal muscle (June, 2013)
  • Strained left hamstring (June, 2014)
  • Skin infection in right thigh (July, 2015)
  • Strained right hamstring (May, 2017)

He's played more than 130 games just once in his career, in 2016, so going into 2018 you had to think he was at least at a heightened injury risk. However, since most of his injuries were not of the recurring sort, you could at least see him having a season where everything broke right and he got into 150 games again. If he did that, it wasn't hard to see him finishing as one of the elite third baseman -- he was one on a per-game basis last season.

Of course, since bad luck seems to be about as much of a defining characteristic of Turner's career as his glorious beard, he didn't even make it to Opening Day without an injury. This time, it came in the form of a 94 mph Kendall Graveman fastball that got away from him, plunking Turner on the left wrist. He left the game Monday and X-rays confirmed a non-displaced fracture of the left wrist, an injury that will likely keep him out for the next two months of action.

We'll try to figure out what the Dodgers will do in his stead shortly, but for now, let's examine what this means for Turner's Fantasy value in 2018.

Heath Cummings included Turner in his Busts 2.0 column, arguing that his No. 66 overall ADP was too rich a price to pay, and this injury certainly makes that look prescient. However, there wasn't unanimous agreement on that in our office, as both Scott White and I believed he was a value at that price.

Turner had turned himself into the West Coast version of J.D. Martinez, combining above-average batted-ball tendencies with the ability to make consistent contact. That led to a .303/.378/.502 triple-slash line as a Dodger, and he showed even more improvement last season. Big things were in store for the late-career breakout star.

Now? It's a lot harder to get excited about him, and not just because of the missed time. Turner should be back by mid-to-late May, but there's no guarantee he'll be back to himself. Wrist and hand injuries have a tendency to sap power, and it can sometimes take a lot longer to get it back than the typical injury recovery timeline.

For instance, Freddie Freeman was back from his fractured wrist after eight weeks last season, but went from hitting .341/.461/.748 before the injury to .292/.375/.515 after. He wasn't bad, but Freeman complained of a lack of strength in the wrist for the rest of the season, and the batted-ball data backed that up: His hard-hit rate dropped from 41.3 to 35.3 percent after the All-Star break.

If Turner sees a similar drop in his production and batted-ball profile, he starts to look a lot less special. There is, of course, no guarantee that he suffers the same fate as Freeman – Trea Turner increased his OPS .151 points after returning from his own fractured wrist last season – but this certainly makes Turner riskier.

Four months of the Turner we expected to see before this injury is still a plenty valuable player, probably one worth drafting around 100 overall. Four months of a potentially limited Turner is a lot less interesting. The fact that we don't know which one to expect to see makes it a lot harder to justify the investment. Take him in the 150 range on Draft Day, but make sure you have a viable replacement for at least the first month and a half -- and possibly even longer. 

How will the Dodgers replace him?

MLB.com's story about Turner's injury indicates the Dodgers will move Logan Forsythe to third base, with a platoon of Chase Utley and Enrique Hernandez taking over at second. That would be a pretty boring outcome for Fantasy purposes, though it is a nice reminder that Forsythe is still around – the 31-year-old has an ADP in the 370s, but hit .264 with 20 homers and six steals in just 127 games in 2016, and can be a sleeper at second base.

However, the more interesting note to take away from that story is something else Dave Roberts said, which is that catcher Austin Barnes could see time at second base. You'll want to keep an eye on what the Dodgers do with their 25-man roster, because if third-string catcher Kyle Farmer makes it, that could be a sign that Barnes could be at least an occasional option there.

Barnes played 76 2/3 innings at second in the majors last season, but played the position primarily at times in his minor-league career, logging almost 1,500 innings there. He likely won't be more than a once-or-twice-a-week option in the middle infield, but even that would be sure to boost his Fantasy value for at least a little while. He is slated to be the smaller part of the catcher time share with Yasmani Grandal, but could come close to matching Grandal in playing time if he is comfortable at second base.

It shouldn't be enough to move Barnes up your rankings too much, but it's a nice possible hedge against playing time concerns for both he and Grandal.