Starting pitchers who get off to blazing starts are ideal for Fantasy leagues. Having a pitcher carry your squad to the top of the standings early is a luxury. But on the other end of the spectrum are pitchers who take awhile to heat up. They might rebound and dominate during the second half of the season, but they can also bury you in the standings at the beginning.
To help prepare you for such pitfalls, we provide a list of starters who have gotten off to slow starts in recent seasons. This isn't an endorsement for avoiding them in Fantasy auctions or drafts. It's simply a warning. If you pursue some of these pitchers, beware that they might start slowly again. Build your Fantasy rotation so that you can absorb a slow start from one of your pitchers. Consider adding those who generally start strong for balance. Also, if you are unable to get these slow starters in a draft or auction, keep them in mind. If they do start slowly, your fellow owners might be looking to pawn them off in May or June.
Kevin Appier, Anaheim
"Ape" was 6-7 with a 4.69 ERA before the All-Star break last season and 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA afterwards. He experienced similar problems with the Mets in 2001: 5-8 with a 3.86 ERA before the break and 6-2 with a 3.23 ERA the rest of the way. Despite his ups and downs, Appier should be a quality fourth or fifth Fantasy starter in AL-only leagues.
Miguel Batista, Arizona
After he finished well in 2001 -- 7-3 with a 3.14 ERA after the break -- Arizona hoped Batista could be the team's third starter in 2002. But he repeated the pattern, going 4-5 with a 4.85 ERA before the break. Batista was only 4-4 after but with a 3.75 ERA. He was 4-5 with a 3.56 ERA before the Midsummer Classic in 2001. The demand for Batista isn't as high this season, but he is still worth a flier in NL-only leagues.
Ryan Clement, Chicago Cubs
Clement was 6-6 with a 3.85 ERA and 115 strikeouts in his first 17 starts. But he was slightly better afterward, going 6-5 with a 3.38 ERA and 100 strikeouts in his final 15 starts. The disparity was even greater in 2001, when Clement was 4-6 with a 5.47 ERA before the break, 5-4 with a 4.46 ERA afterwards. Clement continues to get better every season, so don't be surprised if he gets off to a strong start. Prepare to spend between $12-$15 for him in NL-only leagues.
Wade Miller, Houston Astros
Miller is generally not a slow starter, but a pinched nerve in his neck hindered him in the beginning of the 2002 season and even landed him on the disabled list. Miller was 4-3 with a 5.43 ERA before the break, but was sensational afterward as the pain igradually subsided, going 11-1 with a 2.00 ERA. He has been healthy during the exhibition season. Look for Miller to get off to a strong start. Prepare to bid between $22-$28 for him in NL-only leagues.
Kevin Millwood, Philadelphia Phillies
He has looked good during spring training but has perennially been a slow starter. In the past three seasons, Millwood is 12-16 with a 4.63 ERA before the break, 23-12 with a 3.46 ERA after. Being the Phillies' ace might make matters worse, because he will now have to face opposing aces in contrast to the No. 3 starters he used to get while with the Braves. If Millwood gets into an early funk, his win total might suffer drastically. Some expect him to be a 20-game winner for the Phillies, but it is more reasonable to rely on him for 14 to 16 victories.
The Oakland Three
The A's arguably have the best 1-2-3 punch in baseball, but Barry Zito , Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson all have a knack for starting slowly. Zito wasn't exactly bad in the first half of 2002, going 11-3 with a 3.49 ERA, but he was much better after the break: 12-2 with a 1.92 ERA. Zito was horrible before the break in 2001, going 6-6 with a 4.58 ERA. He rebounded with a 11-2 record and a 2.29 ERA the rest of the way. Mulder doesn't exactly struggle before the All-Star break (18-11, 3.88 ERA in the past two seasons), but is noticeably better after (22-4 with a 3.09 ERA).
Hudson generally has most of his trouble in the first few months of the season. From 2000-2002 he was a combined 14-11 with a 4.24 ERA in April and May. The overall success of this trio is well-chronicled, so don't hesitate to bid for them. Mulder and Zito are both reliable Fantasy aces for AL-only leagues. Hudson is also capable of being a good No. 1 Fantasy starter in AL-only leagues but will be best used as a No. 2.
Kirk Rueter, San Francisco Giants
Rueter has fared better in the second half throughout his career. He has a career 4.39 ERA before the break and a 1.40 WHIP. After the break, he boasts marks of 3.73 and 1.29. Rueter also has a career ERA of 4.69 for April. Last season was no different. He was 7-5 with a 3.45 ERA in his first 18 starts, 7-3 with a 2.93 after. A slow start is likely in order for Rueter, but he should still win between 10 and 14 games.
C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians
Many overlooked the 4.72 ERA he had as a rookie in 2001 because he won seven games during that span and finished with 17 wins. But it's hard to overlook the 6-7 record and 4.97 ERA he contributed before the break in 2002. Sabathia finished strong going 7-3 with a 3.81 to finish 13-11 overall. But the verdict is in: Sabathia is not a good first-half pitcher. That might change this season, but don't expect Sabathia to have a low ERA in the first half. Don't rely on Sabathia to be anything more than a third Fantasy starter in AL-only leagues.
Steve Trachsel, New York Mets
Since joining the Mets, Trachsel has been trashy before the break and superb after. He was like night and day in 2002, going 2-10 with a 6.72 ERA before the break, 9-3 with a 2.74 ERA after. Trachsel was more respectable in the first half of 2002, going 6-7 with a 3.87 ERA. He went 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA after. The Mets have a plethora of young pitchers primed to break into the rotation, so don't expect them to be as patient. Don't spend more than $5 for his services.
Randy Wolf, Philadelphia Phillies
The past two Aprils have been rather unkind to Wolf: He is a combined 2-5 with a 6.46 ERA in nine starts. Prepare for a rocky first month if you get Wolf, but he should be reliable afterward. He has won 11 and 10 games in each of his past two seasons. An improved offense should allow him to win between 12 and 15 this season.
Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs
Wood's luck winning games doesn't vary much because of the ineptness of his team, but he is more prone to giving up runs before the All-Star break. He had a 4.21 ERA before the break from 2000-2002 but has been significantly stronger after the break in the past three seasons, compiling a 3.41 mark. May and June have been especially tough for Wood; he has a combined ERA of 4.55 for those months during the past three seasons. Taking on the role of staff ace will make it even more difficult for Wood to win games if he starts off slowly, but he is worth the risk. He should win between 13 and 15 games while providing a solid WHIP and at least 200 strikeouts.
Dan Wright, Chicago White Sox
Wright started off slowly last season in his first full year as a starter, going 5-8 with a 5.72 ERA before the break. He rebounded by going 9-4 with a 4.64 ERA the rest of the way. Wright is struggling so far this spring, so another slow start might be in his future. Nevertheless, he is still worth a bid of between $3 and $5 in AL-only leagues.
