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Touchdowns are the ultimate Fantasy football currency. They rarely comprise the bulk of a player's production for the season, but they often make or break a week or season.

Pick the right running back, one who racks up a bunch of goal-line carries on a good offense, and you'll probably be happy with his production even if he doesn't do much else. A touchdown can turn a four-catch, 38-yard showing into a respectable Fantasy performance, and take a 100-yard game to the next level. But should you chase TDs?

When you're drafting, should you look at last season's top touchdown scorers, with the expectation they'll continue to find the end zone at a high rate?

Not necessarily. I've always tried to avoid players who rely on touchdowns for a large chunk of their Fantasy production, because of the somewhat fickle nature of touchdowns. Take Calvin Johnson, whose season-to-season TD production has fluctuated drastically. Look at his season totals since 2007:

That 2012 season is a massive outlier -- Johnson famously was taken down inside the 5-yard line eight times -- but the overall line is all over the place. Most of the time, you can expect a very healthy touchdown production from Johnson, but there's a big difference between 12 and 16 scores, let alone 8 and 16.

But maybe Johnson is just an outlier? Maybe, because of the defensive attention he garners, his production naturally will fluctuate. To put that to the test, I took a look at the past five seasons worth of data and picked out every player who had at least 10 rushing touchdowns, 10 receiving touchdowns or 30 passing touchdowns to see how they fared the following season.

Turns out, Megatron doesn't stand out in this way.

10-plus rushing touchdowns: Because so much of their production is based on finishing off drives with a goal-line plunge, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that running back TD production fluctuates from year to year. In 2014, there were only 40 rushing touchdowns scored beyond 25 yards; there were 279 scored inside the 10-yard line. Here are the numbers:

Note: Numbers in red indicate a decrease from the previous season

Players who had 10+ rushing touchdowns in a season, 2010-2014
Name Year TD Fantasy points TD next year FPts next year
Cam Newton 2011 14 370 8 323
Arian Foster 2010 16 327 10 256
Jamaal Charles 2013 12 308 9 210
Adrian Peterson 2012 12 307 10 204
Ray Rice 2011 12 299 9 222
DeMarco Murray 2014 13 292 N/A N/A
LeSean McCoy 2011 17 281 2 145
Marshawn Lynch 2014 13 265 N/A N/A
Doug Martin 2012 11 262 1 56
Arian Foster 2012 15 262 1 87
Arian Foster 2011 10 250 15 262
Marshawn Lynch 2012 11 247 12 239
Alfred Morris 2012 13 241 7 169
Adrian Peterson 2010 12 241 12 189
Marshawn Lynch 2013 12 239 13 265
Knowshon Moreno 2013 10 237 1* *
Peyton Hillis 2010 11 236 3 90
Chris Johnson 2010 11 230 4 171
Rashard Mendenhall 2010 13 220 9 162
Marshawn Lynch 2011 12 217 11 247
Michael Turner 2010 12 216 11 218
Michael Turner 2011 11 214

10

 157
Eddie Lacy 2013 11 208 9 231
Adrian Peterson 2013 10 204 0* *
Trent Richardson 2012 11 204 3 108
Stevan Ridley 2012 12 199 7 120
Adrian Peterson 2011 12 188 12 307
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2010 13 187 11 149
Beanie Wells 2011 10 166 5 54
Mike Tolbert 2010 11 158 8 152
Michael Turner 2012 10 157 ** **
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 2011 11 149 6 152
AVG   12.0 236.9 8.1 183.1
*Missed all but one game following season
**Retired following season

Of the 30 players who had at least 10 rushing touchdowns in a single season from 2010 through 2014, only five actually matched or improved on their number from the previous season. They collectively went from an average of 236.9 Fantasy points on the strength of their touchdown totals (232.6 if you take out Cam Newton) to 183.1 (177.8 sans Newton) the following season. 

Only 10 of 30 had at least 10 touchdowns the following season, though the dropoff isn't quite as stark as that might make it seem, because 17 of them still had eight the following season, while three more didn't play at all or appeared in fewer than three games the following season. 

Unsurprisingly, scoring 10-plus touchdowns on the ground was a pretty good indicator of Fantasy relevance the following season, regardless of whatever dropoff occured. Over the past five seasons, the average No. 10 finisher among running backs in standard leagues scored 175.6 Fantasy points for the entirety of the season, and 12 of our sample met that criteria the season after their double-digit touchdown season. Seven of the others scored 150 or more, a total that should make you a starting caliber back most seasons. If your team gives you enough work to get you 10 scores on the ground, you're probably pretty good. 

Given his track record and the fact he signed with a team that also added Ryan Mathews, it wouldn't be a surprise to see DeMarco Murray fall off in a big way this season. He might be just as good on a per-carry basis as last season, but if he and Mathews split carries 60-40 or even 70-30, a massive regression is likely. Especially if Mathews sees some goal-line work.

The other rusher who had 10-plus last season, Marshawn Lynch, is a very good bet to get there again. The final play of the Super Bowl notwithstanding, Lynch has his coach's confidence near the goal line and has been a model of consistency, with four straight double-digit touchdown seasons. If he's healthy, he'll get there. 

The players who really disappointed coming off their breakout seasons fall into a few categories:

The Injured: Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Beanie Wells

Wells actually scored five touchdowns in eight games in his following season, putting him on pace for double-digits in consecutive seasons, however he averaged just 2.7 yards per carry and never played again after suffering a torn ACL the following season…

The Flukes: Doug Martin, Peyton Hillis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Trent Richardson, Chris Johnson

Richardson really scored 11 touchdowns as a rookie. He actually was someone we were kind of excited about going into his second season. However, he averaged only 3.6 yards per carry in his rookie season -- a career-high so far. Chris Johnson scored 34 touchdowns in his first three seasons, so it wasn't exactly a fluke. However, he has only 17 in four years since, so it's hard to call his last double-digit scoring season anything but a fluke. Doug Martin could have been gone under the "injured" category, but with only three touchdowns and a 3.6 YPC over 17 games his past two seasons, it's probably fair to say he rookie season is the outlier. Especially since 251 yards and four of his touchdowns came in one game…

12-plus receiving touchdowns: All that stuff about running backs being dependent on goal-line work? It doesn't exactly apply for wide receivers; 217 touchdowns were scored beyond the 25-yard line, compared to 387 from within the 10-yard line. Relative to running backs, wide receivers and tight ends are threats to score from anywhere on the field, which means they are comparatively less dependent on field position to score.

But that doesn't mean receiving touchdowns are any less prone to fluctuation. In fact, because there are so many other places for a quarterback to look -- as opposed to one or maybe two options for rushing touchdown opportunities -- receiving touchdowns might have even less predictive power from year to year:

Players with 10+ receiving in a season
Name Year TD Fantasy points TD next year FPts next year
Calvin Johnson 2011 16 266.2 5 220
Antonio Brown 2014 13 251.9 N/A N/A
Rob Gronkowski 2011 17 240.9 11 143
Jordy Nelson 2014 13 229.9 N/A N/A
Dez Bryant 2014 16 228 N/A N/A
Demaryius Thomas 2013 14 227 11 230
Calvin Johnson 2013 12 221.2 8 156
Jimmy Graham 2013 16 217.5 10 145
Jordy Nelson 2011 15 216.3 7 119
Dez Bryant 2012 12 207.7 13 203
Dwayne Bowe 2010 15 205.6 5 147
Brandon Marshall 2013 12 205.5 8 118
Odell Beckham 2014 12 204 N/A N/A
Dez Bryant 2013 13 203.4 16 228
Randall Cobb 2014 12 202.4 N/A N/A
Greg Jennings 2010 12 196.4 9 149
Calvin Johnson 2010 12 188.2 16 267
Eric Decker 2012 13 184.4 11 194
Rob Gronkowski 2014 12 184.4 N/A N/A
Mike Evans 2014 12 177.1 N/A N/A
James Jones 2012 14 162.4 3 100
Vernon Davis 2013 13 161 2 37
Antonio Gates 2014 12 154.1 N/A N/A
Julius Thomas 2013 12 148.8 12 121
Julius Thomas 2014 12 120.9 N/A N/A
AVG   13.3 200.2 9.2 161.1

One thing that stands out is the fact nine different players had 10 or more receiving touchdowns last season; only 16 had managed that many in a season from 2010-13. That could be the result of a more pass-oriented league, or it could be a one-year fluke. Supporting the latter theory is the fact only two of seven who managed the feat in 2013 didn't see their total fall off in 2014. Of course, four of the seven still scored in double figures, and two others had at least eight; Vernon Davis' dropoff from 13 to two was the most extreme outlier.

Still, of the 16 double digit touchdown seasons from 2010-13, 12 of those players failed to match their total the following season. On average, they went from an average of 13.6 scores per game to 9.2 the following season. That is still a very healthy total, and certainly nothing to scoff at, but it should impact how you view players coming into the season. These players' average Fantasy scores for the season went from 200.2 to 161.1 the following year' that's the difference between a fifth-place among WR last season to 13th.  

Tight ends and secondary options might be the most prone to these kinds of falls, with Davis and James Jones the most obvious examples of the folly of chasing breakout touchdown seasons. They generally just don't have the overall volume of production to make up for the loss of even a handful of scores. If you're looking for the most likely players to fall off from last year based on an outlier touchdown season, Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates are your best bets, for fairly obvious reasons.

Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith and Terrance Williams also relied on touchdowns for their value to a pretty absurd degree, and seem extremely unlikely to maintain that level of success. Steer clear. 

30+ passing touchdowns: Quarterbacks have a lot more control over their personal production. In this sample, the average quarterback falls from 36.2 touchdowns to 32.8 the following season -- only a 9.4 percent drop:

Players who had 30+ passing touchdowns
Name Year TD Fantasy points TD next year FPts next year
Peyton Manning 2013 55 412 39 311
Drew Brees 2011 46 394.6 43 346
Aaron Rodgers 2011 45 394.4 39 344
Tom Brady 2011 39 364.3 34 340
Drew Brees 2013 39 357.7 33 305
Aaron Rodgers 2014 38 356.1 N/A N/A
Andrew Luck 2014 40 355.7 N/A N/A
Drew Brees 2012 43 345.6 39 358
Aaron Rodgers 2012 39 343.6 17 171
Matthew Stafford 2011 41 342.3 20 276
Tom Brady 2012 34 340.3 25 252
Peyton Manning 2012 37 311 55 412
Peyton Manning 2014 39 310.7 N/A N/A
Ben Roethlisberger 2014 32 310.2 N/A N/A
Drew Brees 2014 33 305 N/A N/A
Matt Ryan 2012 32 304.9 26 248
Tom Brady 2010 36 298 39 370
Andy Dalton 2013 33 288 19 223
Philip Rivers 2013 32 287.4 31 266
Peyton Manning 2010 33 284.8 ** **
Philip Rivers 2010 30 282.6 27 265
Tom Brady 2014 33 280.1 N/A N/A
Tony Romo 2011 31 282 28 279
Eli Manning 2014 30 269.5 N/A N/A
Tony Romo 2014 34 266.3 N/A N/A
Philip Rivers 2014 31 265.6 N/A N/A
Tony Romo 2013 31 264.9 34 266
Drew Brees 2010 33 264.2 46 396
Eli Manning 2010 31 241 29 289
AVG   36.2 314.6 32.8 300.9
*Missed following season

Of course, the Peyton Mannings, Drew Breeses, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Bradys of the world are going to put up their huge numbers pretty consistently -- and that helps these overall numbers.

It is the lower-tier players who have trouble maintaining success. Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Andy Dalton have only one or two seasons featured before 2014 each, and their numbers are not super promising; that group averaged 33.2 touchdowns and 291 Fantasy points in their first season, numbers which dropped to 25.3 and 261.2. That's the difference between the 15th and 19th quarterbacks in Fantasy scoring last season, so it isn't a huge dropoff.

So, maybe there is some reason to worry about Ben Roethlsberger or Andrew Luck, 2014's first-time members of the 30-TD club? Our projection system still has both players hitting that total for this season, especially because neither is likely to dial back their passing attempts. Last year's club could see a number of repeat performances, and they might even be joined by the likes of Ryan and Joe Flacco, if our projections hit.

This is a quarterback's league, so it shouldn't come as much of a surprise the great ones tend to stay great. Whether the one-year wonders can sustain that is the bigger question.