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One of the easiest starting points for projecting the upcoming season is looking at seasons past. So naturally, one of the easiest ways to find an edge is filtering out those things from the past that are unlikely to repeat themselves.

Sometimes it's a volume issue because of changes in a player's circumstance, but sometimes it has nothing to do with circumstance at all. Often, what happened in the past is largely unrepeatable, and natural regression — either positive or negative — is bound to happen. 

In this piece we'll look at running backs likely to regress in one direction or another and how it will affect their Fantasy value:

  • You can't talk about running back regression without talking about Alvin Kamara. No, I didn't have the guts to put Kamara in my running back busts article (coming later this week), but if not for the Mark Ingram suspension it would be a pretty easy argument to make. Kamara averaged 6.1 yards per carry last season. No one repeats that. He averaged 10.2 yards per reception. That's a ridiculous average for a running back. He scored once every 15.5 touches. Not likely to happen again in his career. I'm bullish on Kamara's talent, and I'm projecting 5.0 YPC and 8.5 YPR. I'm projecting he scores once every 22 touches. Just know even those are optimistic projections, and at those rates he'd have lost 269 yards, four scores and 51 Fantasy points last year. He shouldn't be drafted in the first 10 picks of a non-PPR draft.
  • Another pass-catching back due for regression is Chris Thompson. Obviously, the addition of Derrius Guice will limit his rush attempts, but it's the touchdowns I'd be worried about. Thompson scored six times on 103 touches in 2017. That rate might be sustainable for a goal line back, but not for Thompson. He scored half of those touchdowns from outside of the red zone. Maybe he's just a big play back? He had one touchdown in his career of more than 17 yards coming into last year. Thompson also compiled 15 percent of his receiving yards and 21 percent of his rushing yards on two separate plays last year. Those two plays were the longest rush and reception of his career, respectively. Add in that he may not be at full strength until November even if he plays, and this is a big risk. With fewer touches and fewer touchdowns, Thompson is a bust at his ADP in either format. 
  • Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis also compiled a big chunk of their rushing total on one play. The Titans still have a very good offensive line, so I'm not sure how much I want to downgrade their projected YPC, but if they split carries close to evenly, any reduction at all could make it hard for them to be productive. 
  • On the bright side, I'd anticipate Isaiah Crowell going the opposite direction when it comes to scores. Coming into 2017, Crowell had 19 touchdowns on 531 carries. He toted the rock 206 times in 2017 and scored twice ... and one of those came on a 59-yard rush. Crowell is currently a value as the 38th running back off the board; he finished 31st last year even with the terrible touchdown luck.
  • This same argument applies to Jay Ajayi, but his ADP indicates everyone already knows that. Ajayi had one rushing touchdown last year despite 208 attempts. If you believe, like I do, that the Eagles are going to throw fewer touchdowns this year then you should be expecting more rushing touchdowns. The only question is what percentage of the Eagles' carries (and scores) Ajayi will receive. I expect a true committee.
  • Joe Mixon caught 88 percent of his targets and averaged 9.6 yards per reception last year. His teammate Giovani Bernard, a very good receiver, caught 72 percent of his targets. Expect Mixon will regress towards Bernard's catch rate. With Bernard also cutting into his target share, that could spell trouble in PPR.