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So what is the exact ranking and projection for every QB? Which huge name isn't even in the top 10?... Visit SportsLine now to see Heath Cummings' quarterback rankings and projections, from one of the top Fantasy experts in the nation.

One of the easiest starting points for projecting the upcoming season is looking at seasons' past. So naturally, one of the easiest way to find an edge is filtering out those things from the past that are unlikely to repeat themselves.

Sometimes it's a volume issue because of changes in a player's circumstance, but sometimes it has nothing to do with circumstance at all. Often, what happened in the past is largely unrepeatable, and natural regression -- either positive or negative -- is bound to happen. 

In this piece we'll look at quarterbacks whose production from 2017 is bound to regress in 2018 for one reason or another: 

  • If you've read or heard anything I've said in the last six months, you probably know who is first: Carson Wentz. Last year Wentz had a touchdown rate more than a point higher than Aaron Rodgers career mark. Even if Wentz plays a full 16 games you should expect fewer touchdowns than he threw in 2017. An optimistic projection might give Wentz Tom Brady's career touchdown rate (5.5 percent). That would have cost him nine touchdowns in 2017. There's more to be wary of with Wentz than just a bum knee.
  • Speaking of quarterbacks who tore an ACL and will regress: Deshaun Watson. Watson had a 9.3 percent TD rate and averaged 8.4 Y/A in 2017. I still like him more than Wentz because Watson is further along in the rehab process and he brings so much value with his legs. Just don't expect anything close to his 2017 pace.
  • Speaking of production on the ground, I'd be surprised if Kirk Cousins' rushing touchdowns don't finally regress. And yes, you could have said that for a couple of years now. Cousins scored four times on the ground in 2017 despite accumulating just 179 rushing yards. On the flip side, Alex Smith ran for 355 yards and scored just once. That could absolutely be a result of Washington's approach in the red zone (Cousins has 11 rushing touchdowns over the last three years). If so, that only adds to Smith's sleeper appeal.
  • I expect Andy Dalton will be more efficient this year, at least in terms of Y/A. Dalton averaged just 6.7 Y/A in 2017, his lowest mark since his rookie year. From 2013-2016 he averaged 7.5. How big of a difference would that have made last year? It would have added nearly 400 passing yards. Of course, the Bengals offensive line was responsible for at least part of the drop and they'll have to be improved (it would be hard to be worse) if Dalton is going to get all the way back.
  • Matt Ryan had been the king of exaggerated swings in his touchdown rate again, but that doesn't mean we can just expect it now. In 2015 Ryan had an abysmal 3.4 percent rate; in 2016 it jumped to an unsustainable 7.1 percent before falling back to 3.8 in 2017. While I do expect he has some positive regression coming, his career average is still just 4.6 percent. Expect Ryan to throw more touchdowns than he did last year (20) but he'll still be in the bottom half of the league, especially if his pass attempts stay on the low side.