2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Who should I take at No. 5 overall in non-PPR?
Heath Cummings is almost always starting with Antonio Brown if he has the fifth pick, but it's a great place to build balance after that.
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Editor's note: Our latest PPR pick-by-pick series was done in August prior to the third preseason game and is a three-man draft with Heath Cummings, Jamey Eisenberg and Dave Richard, with each one selecting four teams in this 12-team mock. The goal of this series is to show you positions to draft in these spots as much as the players selected, so take that into account when viewing each team.
Building a team from every draft slot in PPR and non-PPR
If there's one thing abut drafting No. 5 in a draft of any format it's that I'm likely to take Antonio Brown. That's partially because the top four picks consistently seem to be running backs, but it's mostly because of how awesome Antonio Brown is. And he was on pace to have one of his best seasons yet before getting hurt in Week 14 against the Patriots.
Brown had 99 catchers for 1,509 yards and nine touchdowns in his first 13 games last year. How good is that compared to the running backs? It was better than every running back besides Todd Gurley and Le'Veon Bell in this format. In PPR, Brown was the highest scoring non-QB in Fantasy before his injury.
Once you have Brown, this is a good place to look for balance.
Here's my team from No. 2 overall:
- 1.5 Antonio Brown, WR, PIT
- 2.8 Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL
- 3.5 Tyreek Hill, WR, KC
- 4.8 Josh Gordon, WR, CLE
- 5.5 Rex Burkhead, RB, NE
- 6.8 Sony Michel, RB, NE
- 7.5 Tevin Coleman, RB, ATL
- 8.8 Kyle Rudolph, TE, MIN
- 9.5 Jamison Crowder, WR, WAS
- 10.8 Chris Thompson, RB, WAS
- 11.5 Philip Rivers, QB, LAC
- 12.8 Matthew Stafford, QB, DET
- 13.5 Brandon Marshall, WR, SEA
- 14.8 Broncos DST
I took balance, with three running backs and three receivers in my first six picks, but I also took a lot of upside. That's obvious with Tyreek Hill and Josh Gordon, but people are sleeping on Devonta Freeman's upside. Freeman, the No. 1 running back in 2015, is seemingly viewed more like a No. 2 running back than a top-12 guy. I get why that is when you look at his 2017 numbers, but unless you're just avoiding him because you're scared of concussions costing him time, I don't get it.
Freeman played in 14 games last year, but he only played two snaps in one of them. When you look at the other 13 games, he looks a lot like the same guy he was in 2015. Freeman averaged 66.5 yards per game on the ground and 24.4 yards in the passing game. That's on pace for 1,456 total yards, a slight downturn from the 1,541 he had in 2016. His per-carry and per-reception numbers were both higher than his career average. As long as he stays healthy, he'll be well worth a second round price tag.
Favorite pick: Jamison Crowder
The Adrian Peterson signing aside, I'm not sure how Washington is going to run the ball effectively in 2018. That leads me to believe the team should again be pass-happy, and Jamison Crowder is the receiver I expect will be the biggest beneficiary. Crowder had a weird year in 2017, catching only three touchdown passes after scoring seven times in 2016. I expect that will normalize this year and he could see a small increase in targets for him as well. Even if the targets don't go up, he was a top-30 receiver in non-PPR in 2016 with just 99 targets. That's a great value in Round 9.
Pick I might regret: Rex Burkhead and/or Sony Michel
What could go wrong spending a fifth- and sixth-round pick on Patriots running backs? My expectation since the team drafted Michel is that Burkhead will be the team's lead back early in the year, and Michel will take over more of that role as the season goes on. I do think both of these backs will have stretches where they're worth for more than their ADP, but there's also a non-zero chance we get a stretch where Jeremy Hill is handling the early downs and James White is dominating passing downs. If that happens, pairing these two will look foolish at best.
Player who could make or break my team: Josh Gordon
You know the drill with Gordon. He has top-five upside or we could find out in a week that something has happened off the field that will cost him the season. But the fourth round is the point where his upside makes me brave enough to take on his downside. I don't think he has much of a chance to match the 159 targets he saw in 2013, but Tyrod Taylor is the best quarterback he's ever played with, and Baker Mayfield may be an upgrade over Taylor at some point this season. Gordon is my No. 3 receiver on this team, which seems like a great deal, but the combination of taking him in the fourth and the Patriots running backs the next two rounds could be disastrous.
