2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Who should I take at No. 4 overall in PPR?
Picking fourth is an enviable spot in 2019, as you can sit back and nab whichever elite running back is there for you. But it's how you approach things from there that gets interesting, says Ben Gretch.
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Ben Gretch
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PPR draft slot: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
Picking at four isn't very stressful in the first round this year. There are four running backs everyone covets, and even people who see one or two of them as being a slight step down (like me, with Ezekiel Elliott) are likely targeting all four before other players.
I would have taken Elliott at four in this draft, but was happy to get my No. 2 back Christian McCaffrey instead. In the second round, Melvin Gordon was still on the board, and while I'm concerned about his holdout, I knew taking him there would free me up to hammer the wide receiver position over the next several rounds. Had I taken Zach Ertz, who went two picks later, I probably would have approached the next several rounds the same way.
Here's how things shook out:
- 1.04 Christian McCaffrey, RB, CAR
- 2.09 Melvin Gordon, RB, LAC
- 3.04 T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND
- 4.09 D.J. Moore, WR, CAR
- 5.04 Calvin Ridley, WR, ATL
- 6.09 Corey Davis, WR, TEN
- 7.04 Will Fuller, WR, HOU
- 8.09 Cam Newton, QB, CAR
- 9.04 D'Onta Foreman, RB, HOU
- 10.09 Justice Hill, RB, BAL
- 11.04 Alexander Mattison, RB, MIN
- 12.09 Duke Johnson, RB, CLE
- 13.04 Jordan Reed, TE, WAS
- 14.09 Benny Snell, RB, PIT
- 15.04 Baltimore Ravens, DST
I waited very late to address the tight end position in this draft, which I think is a viable strategy this year, especially if you can nab Reed, who has averaged at least 5.8 targets per game in every season of his career. Reed falls in drafts almost exclusively because of injury risk, but in the late rounds that risk isn't as big of an issue, while his per-game upside is a boost for however many games he's active. If he somehow has his first 16-game season, he's a steal; if he doesn't, I move on to the waiver wire.
At first glance, my running backs look very thin if Gordon does hold out. But between Foreman, Hill, Mattison, and Snell, I have four backs who look to be in great position to land significant workloads in good situations if the starter on their respective teams misses time. Johnson also probably fits that bill, at least as long as Kareem Hunt is suspended (and Johnson himself is still a Brown), but where he differs somewhat is he might have more standalone value and a reception specialist, and my selection of him was at least in part influenced by the idea he might be my Week 1 starting RB2 if Gordon is indeed not active.
Favorite Pick
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Once I'd committed to both Christian McCaffrey in the first and D.J. Moore in the fourth, I was pretty clearly committed to a scenario where Cam Newton is healthy and the Panthers offense is highly productive. If that doesn't happen, my team might already be dead in the water. So doubling down on that by selecting Newton in the eighth round maximized the potential payoff of a bet I'd already made.
Pick I might regret
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This one speaks for itself, but if Gordon is serious about his holdout, this is a wasted second round pick. I don't have much insight on his thinking, but I do think the Le'Veon Bell fears are a little unfounded as Bell sitting out an entire season was pretty extreme. It's possible Gordon holds out into the regular season but still returns some time. At a certain point, he becomes a draft value, but it's hard to put your finger on where that point is. Clearly, I'm not totally sure I chose correctly.
Make or break pick
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While my WR depth means Moore being a disappointment might not actually break my team, per se, there is plenty of uncertainty behind him on my depth chart, and I drafted him in a fairly aggressive spot. If Moore is what I think he is, he could certainly make this roster tough to beat. In 2018, Moore didn't play more than 50% of Carolina's snaps until Week 8, and broke 90% for the first time in Week 12. That 90% number is notable, because he went on to stay above that threshold for the rest of the year, save an 82% rate in Week 17. That puts his 960-total-yard rookie year in a little more context, and in 2019 it looks clear he'll be playing 90% or more from Week 1 on.
