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USATSI

You already know there's a lot of intrigue surrounding the quarterbacks at the top of the draft. What you might not know is that there isn't a sure thing at the top. Trevor Lawrence? Joe Burrow? Nope. Nobody like those guys. There isn't one of those "can't-miss" quarterbacks here.

So when there isn't a "can't-miss," teams often go to the next-best thing: The potential franchise quarterbacks. The second tier of prospect passers, if you will. And in this draft, there's not one or two of them. There are FIVE of them.

As a result, it's led to teams having to do a lot of work on these players. All five are different. All five come with a bevy of strengths and anywhere from a few too many, many concerns. The one thing they all have in common? They're imperfect and not promised to be good, much less elite.

Not to get dramatic, but it takes scouting these QBs for Fantasy to another level. A guy like Burrow or Lawrence is easy to buy into regardless of where they land -- these guys have to find a good landing spot to further cement their status as a trustworthy Fantasy option.

One will land in Carolina, whose pass-catching corps is a total patchwork of underachievers and older vets, but that's better than a Houston group headlined by *checks notes* Nico Collins and Robert Woods. Some other teams have some great receivers but might not let their rookie play at the start of the season, or at any point this season.

The only step Fantasy managers can take right now is to learn about each quarterback so that they can bridge their strengths and weaknesses to the teams that draft them. What you're about to delve into is just a taste; we have in-depth player profiles on all five of these guys, and our draft analyst counterparts have plenty more on QBs outside of the top five.

Teams with the biggest Fantasy opportunity

  • Detroit
  • Atlanta
  • Seattle
  • Minnesota
  • Indianapolis
  • Washington
  • Las Vegas
  • Tampa Bay
  • Carolina
  • Houston
  • New England
  • Tennessee

I'm thinking long-term here, and I'm thinking about teams with even an inkling of quarterback need that could make a splash move.

Detroit, Atlanta, Seattle, Minnesota and Indianapolis have impressive receiving corps. Those teams also appear to have their coaching staffs in place for the long haul, meaning not a lot of major changes for their offensive playbooks in the coming years. Yes, that includes the Falcons, who could lock Arthur Smith into more time if his team turns those close losses from last year into close wins this year.

There's no denying the Commanders' outstanding wide receiver duo, but they just changed offensive coordinators and may do so again within the next season or two. That puts them in the same tier as the Raiders and Buccaneers, both of whom could also make major coaching changes that could temporarily stifle the growth of their quarterbacks. Those latter two teams also have older perimeter receivers who won't be best buds with their prospect for more than a few years. 

I don't think there are coaching issues with any of the final four teams, at least not for the next three seasons, but they all have work to do in finding quality pass-catchers to help their quarterbacks. 

Consider this your sign that there isn't a QB in the draft who's so talented that they elevate the play of their receivers.

Top five prospects for Fantasy

Anthony Richardson, Florida

Richardson is my favorite athlete at the position and the one with the highest upside because of the numbers he may eventually put up as a passer and as a runner. His arm strength is great, he's not bad at reading defenses and making solid decisions on where to go with the ball and he's a rare breed when he rushes because he's fast and strong. However, Richardson also has some major downside. His footwork has consistently been a problem that's led to inaccuracy going back to his high school days. He doesn't always throw with the proper amount of touch either, resulting in unnecessary drops. He also has to improve his ability to locate open receivers deeper downfield and keep his eyes up when he's avoiding pressure. All of these things are coachable, but you'd like to think he's been taught any or all of them at some point over the past seven years. For whatever it's worth, Richardson's footwork was better at the combine and at his Pro Day.

Would Richardson get taken with a late pick in redraft leagues if he's pegged to a Week 1 starter's role? Absolutely. His upside is Jalen Hurts' 2021 season (QB11, 22.0 Fantasy points per game). But the best thing for his pro career would be to spend his rookie year on the sideline in preparation for a late 2023 run and starting 2024 as the main guy. If that happens, no one will draft him just for 2023 ... but everyone in Dynasty leagues will still prioritize him as a long-term hopeful. Nobody in this class has his statistical upside, which is why in rookie-only drafts I would take him with the 1.01 in Superflex/two-QB and as high as fifth overall in one-QB leagues.

C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

Stroud is my favorite thrower in the draft thanks to his incredible accuracy and decision-making. He's experienced, he's a winner at both the high school and college levels, he can make any throw you could imagine and he was especially good at making plays under pressure. Stroud is also NFL ready in terms of footwork and processing. He might even reveal himself to be a producer of some rushing numbers, though he wasn't asked to do it much in college (or high school), he insists he can and would be willing to add that dimension to his game. He also missed one game over two years in college and four years in high school, so he's durable. The negatives? Some discredit him because he played in a loaded offense at Ohio State, and he did have some misfires on intermediate throws (not nearly as many on deep throws).

There's a very real chance Stroud goes to Carolina with the first pick or Houston with the second pick. Both spots feel the same -- solid offensive lines, solid coaches in place to help develop him without turnover, but the pass-catchers will take time to enhance. By comparison, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Tampa Bay and even Indianapolis would be better for Stroud to put up Fantasy numbers in 2023. It probably means Stroud won't be a sleeper pick in one-QB redraft leagues or a priority No. 2 QB in Superflex/two-QB formats, but he'll be a first-round pick in rookie-only drafts -- closer to fifth overall if you can use two passers.

Bryce Young, Alabama

Young is NFL ready. His footwork is sharp and his throwing motion is well-practiced. Young has a glut of experience, helping him understand what defenses are doing and taking advantage of them. He's also cool in the pocket, unafraid of pressure and especially gallant at moving to avoid it while keeping his eyes downfield. And best of all, he's very accurate and can nail targets with anticipatory throws and with darts when a guy gets open. Oh, and he's a winner at both the high school and college levels. And as far as his slight frame goes, the kid has missed one game since he started in high school. The slight frame will make some folks squeamish, and his rushing ability shouldn't be overrated, but those are the only negatives aside from occasional lapses in footwork and downfield vision.

Like Stroud, Young is likely ticketed for Carolina or Houston. Neither destination suggests he'll be a Fantasy must-start in 2023. But once his receivers get upgraded and his offensive line gets solidified, expect some good numbers. His fit in Houston's offense where quarterbacks with enhanced mobility tend to do well would especially be appealing. It's unlikely he'll wind up with any other team but obviously if he's paired with quality wideouts and tight ends then his 2023 Fantasy stock will rise. You should expect to see someone in your redraft leagues to take Young with a late rounder on the value his name carries, but that doesn't mean it's a wise pick. Focus on Young in Dynasty where he should be able to deliver a full career of solid numbers as a top-15 type of passer. He'll get picked around third or fourth overall in Superflex/two-QB drafts and around eighth to 10th overall in one-QB.

Will Levis, Kentucky

Levis has the size and strength that makes coaches go bananas. He had ideal size and arguably has the strongest arm and throws with the most velocity among this year's prospects. He also is willing to run and has thrived in short-yardage situations. But the past two years have been a mixed bag for Levis -- he played through some serious injuries in 2022 that seemed to make him more tentative and in turn more inaccurate. But even in 2021 Levis had some accuracy concerns due to some suspect footwork. That can be worked on, as can his tendency to throw with touch instead of rocket every pass attempt as hard as he can. His decision-making also needs to be refined. He figures to be a pretty big project for whoever drafts him, but not one without significant reward since he has some uncoachable traits very few quarterbacks in this draft have.

Levis' trajectory as a project-type quarterback (who will already be 24 years old when the season starts) will keep his Fantasy stock low. But if he winds up with a team that has good coaching staffs in place and time on their side -- Detroit, Minnesota and Seattle come to mind -- his game could be refined and Levis could emerge as a fantastic Fantasy quarterback. Other teams that ultimately start Levis and have some quality receivers to help him out, like the Falcons, Colts or Buccaneers, could also create some buzz for him this year but it would probably take him playing well first. Levis isn't a likely pick in redraft and may fall into early Round 2 in rookie-only Dynasty leagues that use just one quarterback. In Dynasty leagues that use two, Levis will make Round 1 but it'll be after Richardson, Stroud and Young for sure.

Hendon Hooker, Tennessee

If you like dual-threat quarterbacks with some potential to be good, you'll like Hooker. If you dislike older prospects or players who might need at least a full year to be ready to play, you'll dislike Hooker. The bottom line is that the 25-year-old has a lot of quality traits in his profile, including his throwing mechanics from head to toe and his mobility/rushing ability, but needs a lot of assistance translating all of that to the pro game. That's because the style of offense he ran at Tennessee involved a lot of pre-determined reads based more on the play calls his coaches made and less on the defense's coverage. His progressions absolutely need refinement after he was asked to get the ball out quickly to one, sometimes two possible targets from play to play. Hooker also seemed pressure sensitive, something that may be underscored moving forward as he's coming off of a torn left ACL suffered in November 2022.

Given his injury and his lack of command of a pro-style offense, it's a near-certainty that Hooker won't get drafted by a team that needs a quarterback now. In fact, bank on his draft capital to help determine whether a team will take him with 2024 in mind, or if he's just a long-term backup. The longer he waits to get picked, the more likely he won't be a great Fantasy asset. Naturally, we'd love to see Hooker get snagged by the Lions, Raiders or Vikings, virtually any team that would give him the starting job as soon as 2024. If that happens then he would probably draw attention in Dynasty leagues as a long-term quarterback, but he might only be a first-rounder in Superflex/two-QB leagues. 

Favorite sleeper

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA

Everyone thinks the only dual-threat quarterback prospect in the draft is Richardson, but Thompson-Robinson can also get the job done. Frankly, he's a lot like Richardson in that he has a lot of the raw basics that make for monster quarterbacks in this era of the NFL but needs serious help with his technique. Specifically, Thompson-Robinson's eyes aren't as well-trained as other passers you've read about, nor is he as patient in the pocket. He also has the same footwork concerns that Richardson and Levis have. However, he does have good arm strength and did manage to complete nearly 70% of his throws last year, so perhaps his accuracy isn't so much of a problem.

Thompson-Robinson will be a popular backup quarterback option on teams that run an offense that relies on a quarterback with good arm strength and good mobility. Immediately, the Ravens come to mind as a landing spot for Thompson-Robinson given their contractual issues (and injury fears) with Lamar Jackson. Other teams who also fit this specific profile are the Giants, Seahawks, Eagles, Packers, Chargers, Browns and Bills, many of whom could install Thompson-Robinson as a long-term backup before trying to flip him to become a starter in two years. Thompson-Robinson will be a pick in Round 3-plus in rookie-only drafts.