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USATSI

Most rookie tight ends don't top 1,000 yards as Kyle Pitts did or even score seven touchdowns like Pat Freiermuth. No, most rookie tight ends are bad, and that's why we tell you to avoid them in re-draft. As a reminder:

Mark Andrews, the only tight end in Tier 1 with Pitts, totaled 552 yards and three touchdowns in his rookie season. Tier 2 stalwart George Kittle had 515 yards and two scores. Travis Kelce didn't play his rookie year and Darren Waller posted 18 yards in six games. 

So rightly, we're patient with rookies in Dynasty. And that's why Noah Fant and Cole Kmet are still in Tier 4 with Freiermuth despite relatively disappointing starts to their careers. But they really need to do something in 2022 if they want it to stay that way.

Despite the fact that Fant has been better, it's actually easier to see a path to a Kmet breakout this season. The Bears let Allen Robinson walk and have not yet added anyone who would challenge Kmet as the second-best option in the passing game for the Bears. And we may have seen the start of a breakout last year. From Week 9-18 he was on pace for 72 catches and 784 yards. Unfortunately, he scored zero touchdowns in that stretch, or all season.

For a true Kmet breakout to come, he will have to get into the end zone regularly. Considering he was the first tight end since they started recording targets with 90 targets and zero touchdowns, we should definitely expect him to score more. How much more probably depends on how much Fields and the offense improves, and a measure of good fortune. I would expect regression at least puts he and Freiermuth in a similar touchdown neighborhood, all other things being equal.

As for Fant, it's trickier because of the trade. In Denver, he'd shown us multiple hints at a breakout but couldn't quite get over the hump because of injuries and poor quarterback play. The second part could have been fixed had Fant not been shipped to Seattle in the trade. Then they re-signed Will Dissly for a surprising amount of money, and Fant's perception has taken a major hit.

There are enough trade rumors in Seattle that I'm not ready to accept that Fant will be behind both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett while catching passes from Drew Lock. If that's the case, even I have to reconsider this tiering. But he still has Round 1 pedigree, elite athleticism for the position, and career efficiency that is better than his QB play would suggest.

The actionable thing here is if anyone has given up on these two. I would happily give up a Round 3 pick for them and I would consider a late second. Maybe more actionable would be if you have Freiermuth or Albert Okwuegbunam and were able to deal them for Fant or Kmet and a pick. I'm not sure there's much separation between the four of them.

Here are my updated Dynasty tiers at tight end: