Fantasy Football Draft Prep 2023: Drafting from No. 11 overall in a PPR league
Here's how it played out picking from the 11th spot
By
Chris Towers
•
3 min read
A lot of people will tell you you can't win your Fantasy Football league with your first-round pick, but you sure can lose it with the wrong pick. I don't quite buy that view point, as you can see with how I approached picking from the No. 11 spot in our pick-by-pick series.
With my first-round pick, I took Josh Jacobs. Yep, I know he's not at camp with the Raiders yet, as he continues to hold out after being hit with the franchise tag. There's certainly risk inherent to that pick, though not necessarily from Jacobs just never showing up – the NFL CBA actively disincentivizes players from holding out, so while I can't say there's no chance Jacobs won't show up, I'm not too worried about that. The concern for me comes from how skipping most or all of training camp might impact Jacobs' readiness for the season.
It's a real concern, but as long as Jacobs reports, I'm pretty confident he's going to be a top-five RB this season. He was No. 3 last season in total scoring and per-game scoring, and he's tied to a Josh McDaniels offense that has been top-10 in Fantasy points by running backs every year since 2016. This is just a great spot to be in for a running back, and Jacobs is a proven workhorse. We're hoping Nick Chubb can be more involved in the passing game this season while remaining an efficient, high-volume runner; we've already seen Jacobs do that.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my squad from the 11th pick:
1.11: Josh Jacobs
2.2: Davante Adams
3.11: Calvin Ridley
4.2: Keenan Allen
5.11: Justin Herbert
6.2: Kenneth Walker
7.11: Pat Freiermuth
8.2: Michael Thomas
9.11: Kadarius Toney
10.2: Jamaal Williams
11.11: D.J. Chark
12.2: Damien Harris
13.11: Jalin Hyatt
14.2: Marvin Mims
Where some drafters may struggle with this approach was how I punted running back for a while after that pick and took another injury-risk RB in Kenneth Walker in the sixth round when I did. You might want more sure things at the RB position, in which case, you could double up on running backs from No. 11 overall, the way Dan Schneier did from the No. 12 spot. But doing that is going to necessarily leave you shorthanded somewhere else, and I'd rather aim for upside at RB and deal with absences where they crop up there than anywhere else.
Of course, you'll still have to deal with apparent weaknesses somewhere. That's always going to be true when building a Fantasy team, but it seems especially true when you're drafting from the ends because you might have to "reach" to get someone you really want there.
In this case, I opted for a relatively balanced build, but Pat Freiermuth isn't exactly a difference maker at tight end, so there's a relative weakness, potentially. And, while I'm pretty happy with my wide receiver group, there are reasons to be concerned about Adams and Allen in particular, given their ages.
But the thing you have to keep in mind is, every team is going to have some apparent weakness on Draft Day. You just have to figure out which ones you're most willing to stomach. From the 11 spot, I'll shoot for upside with Jacobs and Adams and deal with the fallout if it comes.
Favorite pick
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Last season was a down one for Herbert, who played through a rib injury for much of the season and had injuries along his receiving corps to deal with. This season, he's healthy, has a new offensive coordinator with a track record of leading great offenses, and added a new first-round wide receiver. Herbert's 2020 and 2021 seasons saw him average 26 Fantasy points per game in six-point-per-TD scoring, or better than Joe Burrow has managed in any season to date. Burrow's price has slipped since his calf injury, but I was still able to snag Herbert after Burrow went off the board, and as long as that remains the case, I'll be thrilled every time I take him.
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Pick I might regret
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This represents about a 20-pick drop from where Walker's ADP has been, which feels reasonable given the uncertainty surrounding his groin injury. It's a concern both because he had surgery for a groin issue last training camp and because we just don't have any details on the severity of this latest issue yet, but that goes both ways – it truly might be a minor issue that we'll completely forget about come Week 1. However, I already had concerns about Walker coming into the season after the addition of Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the NFL Draft, so the groin injury is just another risk. The discount is fine, but if this ends up being a serious injury, it's a wasted pick. Given the risk I've already taken on, it might be too much for most players to stomach.
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Make or break player
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This one is fairly obvious. If Jacobs repeats what he did last season, he's a steal at the No. 11 pick, let alone where he tends to go in a lot of other drafts. If he doesn't report, he's the worst possible first-round pick. There might be more ways for things to go wrong than for them to go right with a player who is seemingly intent on skipping training camp – he'll be trying to get into football shape while everyone else has been working out daily for four or five weeks, which isn't a great situation to be in – but I also feel like dropping to 11th overall already devalues Jacobs plenty. Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard might be safer picks, but I don't think either has the same path to easy top-three production, and I'm shooting for upside here.
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