Fantasy Football Draft Prep 2023: Drafting from No. 5 overall in a PPR league
Here's how it played out picking from the fifth position
By
Chris Towers
•
3 min read
If I knew what I know now, would I have still taken Cooper Kupp with the No. 5 overall pick? Kupp left practice Tuesday with a hamstring injury that is expected to keep him on the sidelines for a few weeks, but isn't currently expected to cost him any regular season time. That's the good news. The bad news is that, well, he's currently hurt. Predicting injuries is hard, and avoiding injury risks in your draft is often impossible, but one sure way to invite injury risk is to take players who are already injured a week into training camp.
We drafted before we learned about the injury, and if I had known, I would've passed on Kupp. I could have taken Travis Kelce or Austin Ekeler in that spot instead, and the rest of my draft probably wouldn't have gone much differently – and, if Kupp had been there when I picked in the second round, I absolutely would have taken him there if he fell. I'm worried about the injury, sure, but I also know no other wide receiver has shown the kind of upside Kupp has over the past two seasons with the exception of Davante Adams during his peak in Green Bay. I'm downgrading Kupp because of the injury, but I still think I would take him ahead of every other wide receiver not named Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs.
Which is to say, I wouldn't have changed too much from the No. 5 spot, even knowing what I know now.
As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Here's my squad from the fifth pick:
1.5: Cooper Kupp
2.9: Patrick Mahomes
3.5: Travis Etienne
4.9: Breece Hall
5.5: Chris Godwin
6.9: Marquise Brown
7.5: Mike Williams
8.9: Dalvin Cook
9.5: Rondale Moore
10.9: Devin Singletary
11.5: Dalton Kincaid
12.9: Rashee Rice
13.5: D'Onta Foreman
14.9: Justyn Ross
Of course, if I had gone a different route and ended up with either Kelce or Ekeler in the first and Kupp in the second, there's no guarantee I would have ended up with a difference maker at quarterback, and that's a big priority for me in drafts this year. One of Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts in the late second round is a great pick; if either of them would have been there when I was picking in the third round, I might have kicked myself for taking Mahomes where I did.
But all three were off the board, so I didn't have any regrets about the way I handled it. The choice from there was RB or WR with Mark Andrews off the board just before my pick. I opted for Travis Etienne ahead of Chris Olave and Tee Higgins, and then took Breece Hall the next time around. Partially, it's because I think the No. 2 RB class is probably a bit stronger at the high end than the No. 2 WR group, but also because I think there are more viable options at WR than at RB.
That doesn't mean I'm in love with my WR corps, especially if Kupp's injury lingers. I think Chris Godwin is probably being underrated with the loss of Tom Brady, and I'm happy to get him in the third round; Marquise Brown also has plenty of upside with DeAndre Hopkins out of the picture, though he's also knocked down some boards due to a questionable QB situation. Despite waiting a bit for my No. 2 and 3 WRs, I still ended up with two of my top 24 and three of my top 30, though I'll acknowledge there's plenty of risk involved in that approach.
If I had to do it over again, I might have passed on Hall for one of Deebo Samuel or DK Metcalf, with the knowledge that I could have taken Godwin in the fifth and someone like Cam Akers in the sixth; it's a lower-upside move, but I probably could have afforded to take on less risk with this build.
If all works out, this will be a formidable squad. But there are question marks aplenty, and only one of them was out of my control when I drafted.
Favorite pick
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Moore's career has been pretty disappointing so far, but there have been definite flashes from the former second-round pick. He only played eight games last season, as he missed the first three and final six with injuries; he wasn't fully up to speed in his first game and left his eighth with an injury, so we won't count those. In the six fully healthy games Moore played? He was on a 108-catch, 1,142-yard pace, and figures to be the clear No. 2 option in this offense behind Marquise Brown. The QB questions here are significant, even when Kyler Murray is healthy enough to play, but Moore's after-the-catch ability should make him a productive option when the Cardinals want to dial up easy completions. He's not a superstar, but he could be a high-volume starter in PPR formats.
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Pick I might regret
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At the time I made my first-round pick, I didn't know it was as big a risk as it would eventually look, which changed the outlook of the rest of the team. It probably made Hall too much of a risk to justify here. He hasn't been fully cleared in his return from a torn ACL, and while I still think he's a fine fourth-round pick in a vacuum, it looks worse within the context of a bunch of other risky picks. Hall has huge upside – I maintain if he hadn't gotten hurt last season, we might be talking about him as a candidate for the No. 1 overall pick this season – but he also might not make an impact for the first month of the season while he's getting up to speed. Any kind of setback for Kupp could leave me in a significant hole.
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Make or break player
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How could it be anyone else? Kupp left practice at camp the day after we drafted, immediately making him one of the riskiest first-round picks on the board. There isn't another receiver we can project for anything close to the kind of production Kupp has shown over the past two seasons, so if he gets past this injury without incident and stays healthy, I'm pretty sure he's going to be a gigantic difference maker – he's basically been a 25-PPG player in full PPR the past two seasons. I just can't assume he'll be healthy by Week 1 now.
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