Fantasy Football: What will the historic 2019 rookie wide receiver class do for an encore?
The 2019 rookie wide receiver class was fantastic, and sorting them out before their second seasons could play a significant role in who wins Fantasy Football leagues in 2020.
By
Ben Gretch
•
10 min read
In 2019, rookies A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Darius Slayton and Diontae Johnson were all top-40 wide receivers in PPR Fantasy leagues. Marquise Brown, Preston Williams, Mecole Hardman and Hunter Renfrow all had strong stretches as well, contributing to Fantasy rosters at various points throughout the season. It was, without question, a fantastic year for rookie wide receiver production in the NFL.
And yet, none of these players finished inside the top 20 at the position, with A.J. Brown just missing the cut at WR21. As we head into 2020, it seems almost inevitable we'll see some take that step and become legitimate weekly starters. But the question is, who? With so many intriguing names entering their second seasons, and optimism surrounding nearly all of them plus some unlisted youngsters, sorting out the right bets to make in this class could play a significant role in who wins your Fantasy Football league for 2020.
So let's go through them all, ranked by Average Draft Position, and look at who could be difference-makers for 2020. One important piece of research I will reference here is from Blair Andrews at RotoViz which outlines that if we break wide receiver scoring into expected Fantasy points based on the volume they received, rookie wide receivers who perform above expectation tend to dramatically outproduce inefficient rookies the following year. Blair's work further shows that these efficient rookie wide receivers both tend to see substantially more Year 2 volume and also tend to continue to be more efficient.
In other words, while efficiency regression is always a concern, fade early-career efficiency at your own risk, because good young players will earn more work. And the 2019 class is loaded with those such players.
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A.J. Brown is a polarizing figure, mostly due to the offense he plays in. You'd be hard pressed to find anyone who closely follows Fantasy Football that would argue Brown isn't going to be a great player. He was a phenomenal prospect, and after an impressive early-season run as a part-time player, he was the PPR WR6 in Fantasy points per game from Week 10 until the end of the season — the period from when he first crested a 70% snap share and was officially a full-time player.
Of course, Brown's efficiency was legendary, and he disappeared at times when the Titans controlled games and took the air out of the ball, including their two playoff wins where they threw just 16 and 15 passes. In all, Brown saw just 84 targets as a part-time player who earned a larger role for a Titans team that threw the fourth-fewest passes of any team in the past half decade. I've laid out the case for why Brown is one of my favorite picks at his current WR17 ADP, and a big part of it is expecting at least 110 targets in 2020.
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One of the cases I've made in favor of Brown is a reconsideration of how dominant he was at the college level considering he was playing alongside DK Metcalf, now that we know Metcalf went on to post 900 yards as a rookie at the NFL level. That argument works both ways — one of the only knocks on Metcalf as a prospect was a lack of consistent production, but given what Brown did as a rookie and the injuries Metcalf dealt with at Ole Miss, it's fair to cut him some slack there.
Still, I can't help but be a bit wary of Metcalf. Player Profiler graded him as having the 11th-best Target Quality Rating in 2019 and the 103rd-best True Catch Rating, meaning he was an efficient player mostly due to his elite quarterback and that he left some plays out on the field. That's not to say he can't improve — of course he can, and he still gets to play with Russell Wilson — but any step forward for him in Year 2 may not come as easily or as aggressively as one would assume given he already saw 100 high-value targets in a low-volume offense as a rookie. I expect his volume to rise, as the trends for efficient rookies suggest, but Metcalf can't expect much better play out of his quarterback and has to take a step forward himself.
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Terry McLaurin is an example of one player I personally have ranked ahead of Metcalf, and I'm more optimistic about McLaurin's potential to jump into something close to the elite tier. For starters, McLaurin has far less competition, which is to say he has essentially no competition whatsoever. There's no No. 1 in the NFL with less.
Secondly, Washington was one of just two teams since 2006 to run fewer than 900 plays, the 2018 Dolphins being the other. With a new coaching staff that actually led an up-tempo offense in Carolina last year, Washington could add as many as 100 plays in 2020, which could create the type of underrated Fantasy potential that we saw in Miami in 2019, when they themselves added more than 100 plays to their 2018 total. McLaurin would be the clear top option to benefit — his elite 41% share of Washington's air yards in 2019 is hardly in jeopardy, and he was among the most efficient of all rookie wide receivers. All he needs is a little help on the team level.
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Yet another player from the 2019 rookie class we can put in the "efficient" category, Marquise Brown dealt with foot injuries that limited him at times in 2019 but is poised to see a substantial uptick in his Year 2 volume. In what's becoming a trend, we once again have to wonder whether team passing volume will hold back a second-year breakout, but the Ravens were the one team that threw even fewer times than the Titans in 2019, and it's hard to imagine that won't tick up at least a little bit in 2020.
I've made the case projecting team volume can be more difficult than it seems, and while the Ravens won't likely be anywhere near league average pass attempts, it wouldn't be a major surprise to see them add something like 50 to their 2019 total. I'll always target players like Brown given the knowledge the only thing keeping his ADP down is projected team-level pass attempts.
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With JuJu Smith-Schuster ailing and without Ben Roethlisberger for much of 2019, Diontae Johnson emerged as a consistent threat in the old Antonio Brown role. There has been some discussion about how James Washington was even more productive, but Washington is more of a downfield threat, and second-round rookie Chase Claypool figures to compete for that role. Johnson, it seems to me, is locked into a starting role entering his second year.
A solid if unspectacular prospect out of Toledo, Johnson generated a ton of buzz for a brief spell earlier this offseason, before his ADP settled in right near a pretty substantial tier drop in the 2020 Fantasy wide receiver ranks. While I'm high on a Smith-Schuster bounceback season, I've got Johnson as worth his ADP, too.
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Deebo Samuel fit in with so many names already listed in this article before a Jones fracture early in the offseason workout period put his status for Week 1 in question. Samuel's rookie season was defined not just by his efficiency as a receiver, but also substantial rushing production for a wide receiver, and he looked ready to step into the No. 1 wide receiver role in the 49ers offense following the departure of Emmanuel Sanders.
That role, of course, comes behind George Kittle, the true No. 1 in the offense. But Samuel makes for an interesting later-round option when he falls behind ADP, and he should be a consistent producer when fully healthy. There is always a question with foot injuries, however, about whether lingering issues might impact explosiveness or lead to reinjury.
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Just behind Samuel's WR39 ADP is Darius Slayton at WR40, and surprise, we have yet another second-year receiver who was an efficient player in his first season. Slayton's eight touchdowns might be hard to match in 2020, and much of his production came while teammates missed time with injuries.
With Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate and Evan Engram likely to play more combined games in 2020, Slayton could find himself struggling to see that substantial target increase we're hopeful for with many of these youngsters. But one thing working in his favor — and why I support his ADP as the first Giants' receiver off the board — is his downfield target profile that could allow him to continue hitting on the types of splash plays that often drive plus efficiency. In other words, he has the best chance to be a solid Fantasy producer without big target numbers of the Giants' receiving trio.
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While I'm clearly optimistic about this class overall, Mecole Hardman is one player in particular I have made a point to draft in plenty of leagues. Hardman played only sparingly after a brief early-season stretch where he filled in for an injured Tyreek Hill — after playing at least 60% of the snaps in each of the first five games of the season, he eclipsed that marker just once more in the 2019 season. But Hardman was a particularly young rookie who was incredibly efficient when he did get on the field, seamlessly fitting into the high-powered Chiefs offense. After averaging a ridiculous 13.1 yards per target as a 21-year-old rookie, it seems almost ludicrous to think the Chiefs would go into 2020 without adjusting some things to ensure he's more consistently in the game plan.
That's the line of thinking that is keeping his ADP down — that his 2019 usage essentially indicates a backup role — but if we play that string out we're to assume he's only on the roster as an insurance policy should Hill miss more time. What about in 2021? Or 2022? Is Hardman never going to see an uptick in snaps? Of course not. And as a Fantasy bench receiver at his draft cost, you're not likely to start him until that playing time is secure, at which point — in this offense, and with his explosiveness — he'll feel like a fourth- or fifth-round value. He's a great Draft Day target.
Later-round names to watch
- Preston Williams (ADP: 139.3) - While Williams had a promising rookie season, it's worth noting he's the first name on this list who underperformed his expected Fantasy points based on the targets he saw. Some of that was due to inconsistent quarterback play early in the season, with Josh Rosen playing much more substantially before Ryan Fitzpatrick took over for good. Some of it was also because Williams averaged more expected points than any of the players above him on this list, as he immediately played a significant role in Miami's offense. If he sees anything close to the 7.5 targets and 1.3 red zone targets per game he saw in 2019, there's plenty of reason for optimism in 2020.
- N'Keal Harry (ADP: 158.7) - An impressive prospect who many agreed had the best age-adjusted production profile among the 2019 class, Harry missed substantial preparation time early in the season due to injury and was slow coming along late, finishing with a disappointing rookie season both in terms of volume and efficiency. A new offense with Cam Newton under center could be reason to hope, as could the fact that Harry saw targets on 18.7% of his routes run, a solid figure that outpaced some of the above names like Metcalf, Slayton and Hardman.
- Hunter Renfrow (ADP: 164.8) - Speaking of targets per route run, Renfrow's 23.1% was a strong rate for a rookie slot receiver, comparing favorably to Cooper Kupp and out in front of guys like Tyler Boyd and Jamison Crowder who led their teams in targets. Renfrow was also efficient on that volume, and while the Raiders added a ton of receiving weapons this offseason, he seems likely to be a solid player at the NFL level for years to come.
- Parris Campbell (ADP: 183.8) - Campbell is another who battled injuries in 2019, but if he earns the slot role in Indianapolis, there's reason to hope he could have a strong second season, particularly as Philip Rivers looks for a reliable short and intermediate target to replace Keenan Allen. Campbell was inefficient as a rookie but did draw a solid number of targets per route run at 19.3%.
- Steven Sims (ADP: 217.4) - Despite scoring four times in the final three games of the season, Sims still comes out as a slightly inefficient player relative to his 2019 opportunity, thanks in large part to a putrid 5.5 yards per target figure. He did see a target on a whopping 24.4% of routes run, and the opportunity should be there for Sims to take a step forward in 2020.
Which players are poised for breakouts, which sleepers do you need to jump on, and which busts should you avoid at all costs in your Fantasy football league? Visit SportsLine now to get early rankings, plus see which WR is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
