Inside Mayweather-Pacquiao: What you need to know, and a pick
Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will finally tangle Saturday night. Here's your definitive preview, and a prediction.
Wow … so what you're saying there's actually a fight to dissect?
Yes indeed, though it's been discussed, rumored and openly fantasized about for what feels like much longer than six years, the time has finally arrived to assess the plusses and minuses that Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao figure to bring to the MGM Grand ring Saturday night.
Though their respective ages -- Mayweather turned 38 in February, Pacquiao has been 36 since December -- suggest far greater proximity to retirements than peaks, both men remain fixtures at the premier ends of the most highly regarded talent assessments. In fact, The Ring slots Mayweather No. 1 and Pacquiao No. 3 in pound-for-pound ratings on its website, and the Independent World Boxing Rankings have them at first and second, respectively, in this month's rundown for the 147-pound class.
In other words, the fight remains relevant not only for the star power the fighters possess, but just as much for the world-class acumen they've carried into their twilight years.
And now that the opening bell is near, the discussion can at last turn from supposition to strategy.
A case for Pacquiao
The Filipino superstar toiled in anonymity for a while after turning pro in 1995 at age 16, but began building the "PacMan" brand after arriving on short notice to erase Lehlo Ledwaba in a 122-pound title bout six years later. He claimed trophy-sized heads across the lower weights through a June 2008 demolition of 135-pound space-filler David Diaz, then went global with a vicious battering of Oscar De La Hoya that necessitated the "Golden Boy's" surrender in an MGM Grand showcase that December.
The Pacquiao that earned raves and collected title belts all the way through a late 2009 pummeling of a catch-weighted Miguel Cotto possessed irrepressibly fast hands, agile feet and enough pop in his left to either render a foe loopy with one shot -- paging Ricky Hatton, circa May 2009 -- or to make it impossible for said foe to keep him still long enough to deliver an impactful reply of their own.
His success against Mayweather, though, will depend on how much of that dynamo still exists.
Yes, Pacquiao has won eight of nine outings since dethroning Cotto, but he hasn't stopped a single man since Cotto, had middling tactical frustration across two fights with Timothy Bradley and was knocked face-first to the floor in a fourth go-round with Juan Manuel Marquez.
It seems clear that the Pacquiao who faces Mayweather will need to be a lot more of the 2008-09 vintage than what he's shown lately. In fact, if he hasn't got the strength to land a single paradigm-altering shot (a la Hatton), or the juice to stand on the gas for multiple rounds and sap his foil's willingness to compete (a la De La Hoya), it'll be a sad night in Manila. But the man is fast. And powerful. And even on the backside of his prime, he's still perhaps the stiffest competition Mayweather has ever faced. If PacMan can ride the energy of the night and land a few meaningful blows in the early going, there's no doubt he still packs enough punch to finally strip Mayweather of that zero next to his name.
A case for Mayweather
Some love him, many hate him. But few objective observers will argue that Mayweather isn't the best fighter in the sport today. He is. And it's largely for the very same reasons he ascended to that position years ago.
Even well into his 30s and armed with a financial arsenal most governments would covet, he still prepares for each match like a hungry 20-something seeking a first big break. And because he's managed to get through 47 fights with few prolonged violent skirmishes, neither his reservoir of ring intelligence nor his myriad physical abilities seem to have diminished much with advanced age.
He still stands well within punching range, yet his rough-and-tumble opponents are unable to either find him with single paralyzing shots or disassemble his defensive matrix, even from in close.
In Pacquiao, though, he faces the potential for a threat unlike any in recent memory.
Though 2014 dance partner Marcos Maidana was as determined and physical as they come, neither his fundamentals nor his athletic prowess come close to what the Filipino has possessed. And though Canelo Alvarez was younger, bigger and stronger in 2013 than Pacquiao, his toolbox was also nowhere near as advanced as what PacMan, even at 35, showed as recently as November.
Same goes for Victor Ortiz, Cotto and Robert Guerrero, whom Mayweather beat in succession from 2011 to 2013 thanks largely to the same edges he had over Alvarez and Maidana. In fact, one has to go all the way back to Shane Mosley -- who had Mayweather in more trouble he's been in at any point in five years and 74 rounds since -- to find a Floyd foe who presents an all-around challenge of speed, power and ring smarts like Pacquiao's.
But here's the thing: everyone says they are going to make Floyd Mayweather fight for full rounds. They say that, and then they can't do it. As lauded as Mayweather's defensive wizardry is, in reality it's even more impressive. Guys can't touch him. Through the prime years of his career opponents landed punches at less than a 20 percent clip while Mayweather connected at close to 50 percent.
He might not be quite the fighter he used to be, but he's still the best in the world. It will take something special to knock him off that throne.
What the judges will consider
Clean punching: Criterion No. 1 on the minds of Burt Clements, Glenn Feldman and Dave Moretti would appear -- based on past performances -- to be a Mayweather strong point. "Clean" punches are ones that land on the face or side of the head, or to the front or side of the torso. Mayweather hasn't historically shown the one-punch pop his rival has, but when it comes to precision few have been better. Advantage: Mayweather
Effective aggressiveness: When it comes to consistently and successfully moving forward in a controlled manner, it's a matter of taste. Pacquiao's brand of aggression is often effective, but can be labeled reckless as well, and has been exploited by counter-punchers. Mayweather isn't a guy who'll barrel anyone over with perpetual motion, but when he does move forward to walk a guy down, it usually works to his advantage. Advantage: Even
Ring generalship: An amorphous variant that's most often defined in favor of the fighter who controls the pace and style of the bout. And even more so than effective aggressiveness, its beauty can be viewed in different ways by different beholders. Moretti scored seven rounds in Pacquiao's favor in his third Marquez bout, while HBO's Harold Lederman saw it 8-4 the other way and readers of Ring Magazine voted the Filipino's win as 2011's biggest scorecard robbery. It's a matter of taste. Advantage: Pacquiao
Defense: The last criterion is the easiest to define -- rewarding the boxer that most skillfully incorporates defensive maneuvers and absorbs the least meaningful blows -- and the most one-sided in Saturday's matchup. While Pacquiao's reaction to an opponent's offensive burst is to take a shot or two, slap his gloves together and prepare a reply, Mayweather's ability to slide his feet, tuck his chin and elude punches by inches is artistry to observers and maddening to foes. He's not only defensively superior in this bout, he's one of the best ever. Advantage: Mayweather
What-ifs to watch for
What if it's Hagler-Hearns, 30 years removed? If Saturday's first round looks anything like a slugfest, it'll mean Pacquiao has succeeded where so many others have failed. He's presumably made Mayweather fight every minute of every round. And if that occurs, expect to see a lot of happy Filipinos at the post-fight betting windows.
What if the fans are booing in the first 30 seconds? Maybe it's the logical knee-jerk response to spending thousands of dollars for a fight that's been in the works for five years. And Vegas crowds are known to be impatient anyway. But if the fight looks more like Stratego than Twister, it's probably because Mayweather wants it that way.
What if Kenny Bayless acts like the sport's best referee? He is, so chances are he will. But most PPV viewers will consider Bayless' performance inversely proportionate to the number of times they see his torso or hear his voice. He was criticized by some for being too quick to step in when Mayweather fought Maidana last September, an approach which could blunt Pacquiao's swarming lean.
What if the fight ends early? Again, it's probably a good sign for the Pacman supporters. Though he's not knocked anyone out since 2009 and has had a harder time denting the chins of welterweights than he had with flyweights, bantamweights and featherweights, a quick end likely means he was able to land a left hand with some mustard on it. If Floyd wins quickly, prepare for worldwide "TBE" immersion.
What if there's a questionable -- or outright awful -- decision? Short of an injury at the weigh-in or a malfunction at the beer concessions, it's the doomsday scenario for boxing. As much as this fight has been billed as a savior for the sport or a starting point from which recovery can be mapped, a dubious set of scorecards would make Sunday headlines for all the wrong reasons. And rather than fading away quickly like judging stinkers of the recent past, this one would linger. No pressure, Burt, Glenn and Dave. No pressure at all.
What if it's a good competitive fight, and the right guy wins? It depends on whose arm is raised. If Pacquiao wins a close fight -- and in spite of the claims made by Bob Arum and others that it was a promotional headache not to be revisited -- the reality will still be that Pacquiao can't make as much money elsewhere as he can by doing it again, especially as an A-side. So if that occurs, book the hotel rooms early. The circus will be back in the fall.
If Mayweather wins a close one over the man perceived as his greatest generational rival, it seems far less likely that he'd feel the need to re-flex his A-side muscles. In fact, though he's insisted he'll take one more victory lap at the MGM to max out his Showtime deal, the guess here is that he plunks down a few million for a customized, horse-shaped Rolls Royce… and rides it off into the 48-0 sunset.

The prediction
It may have been a better boxing match in 2010. It's unquestionably a bigger financial amusement park in 2015. But one reality hasn't changed. Mayweather, with his myriad skills, seems to be a more significant step up in class from Pacquiao's most recent opponents than Pacquiao is from his.
The 38-year-old has been in with bigger, stronger welterweights and junior middleweights, and will enter the ring with physical advantages that he's not possessed over a foe in years. In fact, no less an authority than four-division world champion Roy Jones Jr. told CBSSports.com that he anticipates Mayweather will actually be the power-puncher in the fight, not Pacquiao.
Couple that with other-worldly defensive prowess, ring smarts and Pacquiao's vulnerability to counter shots, and it looks like a mixture bound to yield a Mayweather win. It won't be easy and the underdog will surely have some moments, but the tide will turn definitively in the middle rounds and a motivated favorite will press the gas to register a stoppage in the late going.
Mayweather by TKO in 10.














