2023 MLB playoffs: How will Phillies, Rangers, others operate with four-man rotations finally needed?
No. 4 starters will finally come into play in the best-of-seven League Championship Series
By
Mike Axisa
•
11 min read
Sunday night the 2023 MLB postseason resumes with Game 1 of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park. The Houston Astros will host their in-state rival Texas Rangers. The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks will begin the National League Championship Series on Monday. Here's the postseason bracket and the postseason schedule.
Because of sweeps and the unusual Division Series schedule -- the NL had off-days after Games 1 and 2 -- the D-backs, Phillies, and Rangers all reached the Championship Series without using their No. 4 starter this postseason. They were able to lean on their top three starters. That will change now that we're into the best-of-seven Championship Series. No. 4 starters are necessary.
Some teams have better No. 4 starters than others, and that is especially true with the four teams still alive this postseason. With the caveat that what happens in Games 1-3 will factor into everyone's decision-making come Game 4, let's break down each team's No. 4 starter candidates, and see which way they might lean.
Houston Astros
Nos. 1-3 starters: RHP Justin Verlander, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Cristian Javier
No. 4 candidates: RHP Hunter Brown, RHP J.P. France, RHP José Urquidy
Might as well get the easy team out of the way first. Houston is the only club still standing that previously used a fourth starter this postseason. The ALDS schedule necessitated it. Urquidy got the ball in Game 4 against the Minnesota Twins after Verlander, Valdez, and Javier started Games 1-3 in that order. Urquidy pitched well (two runs in 5 2/3 innings) and there's no reason to think he won't start Game 4 of the ALCS.
Just to cover our bases: France has not pitched since Sept. 23, though he did warm up in the bullpen at one point in the ALDS. Brown moved into the bullpen in late September and has not started a game since Sept. 24. He has made three one-inning relief appearances since then (one regular season, two postseason). It seems Houston prefers him in that role. Unless they surprise us with France, expect Urquidy to get the ball in Game 4 on Thursday.
Texas Rangers
Nos. 1-2 starters: LHP Jordan Montgomery, RHP Nathan Eovaldi
No. 3-4 candidates: RHP Dane Dunning, RHP Jon Gray, LHP Andrew Heaney, LHP Martín Pérez, RHP Max Scherzer
With the Rangers, it's not clear who will start Game 3, let alone Game 4. Heaney started Game 1 of the ALDS after Montgomery and Eovaldi started the two Wild Card Series games, though he was on a short leash, and Dunning came out of the bullpen and essentially served as a piggyback. Heaney and Dunning combined for 5 2/3 innings in Games 1 against the Baltimore Orioles.
Scherzer threw 60 pitches in a simulated game on Wednesday and he's on the ALCS roster. That lines him up to start Game 3 with two extra days of rest and I have a hard time believing the Rangers will push Scherzer back any further than that. He's coming off an injury and he may not be what he was at his peak, but it's still Max Scherzer. Here's the possible schedule:
| Date | Game | Starting pitcher |
|---|---|---|
Sun., Oct. 15 | Game 1 | Jordan Montgomery (announced) |
Mon., Oct. 16 | Game 2 | Nathan Eovaldi (announced) |
Tues., Oct. 17 | off-day | |
Weds., Oct. 18 | Game 3 | Max Scherzer |
Thurs., Oct. 19 | Game 4 | No. 4 starter |
Fri., Oct. 20 (if necessary) | Game 5 | Jordan Montgomery (normal rest) |
Sat., Oct. 21 | off-day | |
Sun., Oct. 22 (if necessary) | Game 6 | Nathan Eovaldi (extra day of rest) |
Mon., Oct. 23 (if necessary) | Game 7 | Max Scherzer (normal rest) |
Push Scherzer back to Game 4 and he would get only one start in the ALCS, and I have a hard time believing the Rangers would do that. You go out and acquire Scherzer so he can make two starts in a best-of-seven series with the pennant on the line. Expect to see Mad Max on the mound in Game 3 and, if necessary, a winner-take-all Game 7 (he's done that in Houston before).
As for Game 4, Texas could go the Heaney/Dunning tag team route again, though Gray and Pérez are viable fallback plans. Moreso than another other Championship Series team, Games 1-3 will shape what the Rangers do in Game 4. Heaney/Dunning would be the best way to go, but if they're needed out of the bullpen in Games 1-3, they'll be used out of the bullpen.
It should be noted Gray has not pitched since Sept. 25 because of a forearm injury and Pérez has not pitched since Oct. 1, though he did warm up during the ALDS. He hasn't thrown more than 65 pitches since July. Gray and Pérez won't be able to give much length, so, if they do get the ball in Game 4, it would be as part of a bullpen game, not a straight start.
Rangers manager Bruce Bochy has shown he manages for today's win in the postseason, then he'll figure out tomorrow when it comes. I reckon the Rangers aren't even 100% sure how they'll approach Game 4 yet. They'll worry about that when Game 4 arrives. They have Montgomery and Eovaldi in Games 1 and 2, and presumably Scherzer in Game 3. Texas is not short on options for Game 4. It's just a matter of who's freshest and available that day.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Nos 1-3 starters: RHP Zac Gallen, RHP Merrill Kelly, RHP Brandon Pfaadt
No. 4 candidates: RHP Slade Cecconi, RHP Bryce Jarvis, RHP Ryne Nelson
The D-backs are essentially a 2.5-starter team this postseason. It's Gallen and Kelly, then whatever they can get out of Pfaadt. Pfaadt was great against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS (4 1/3 scoreless innings) and not so great against the Milwaukee Brewers in the Wild Card Series (three runs in 2 1/3 innings). He's their clear No. 3 starter.
Jarvis spent most of the season in Triple-A and worked as a starter, though his big-league time came as a reliever. He made one start and was effectively an opener: 38 pitches and 2 2/3 innings on Sept. 28. Jarvis has not thrown more than 51 pitches in a game since late July. Hard to believe he's capable of being anything more than a 2-3 inning guy right now.
Nelson made 27 mostly ineffective starts this season (5.53 ERA as a starter) and found himself in the bullpen late in the season. He retired only one of the four batters he faced in his Wild Card Series relief appearance. Cecconi was effective in four starts and three relief appearances late in the season. He might be Arizona's best shot at a 4-5 decent innings right now.
Needless to say, the D-backs lack quality No. 5 starter options, which is why their best (and the most likely) option for Game 4 is a bullpen game. They don't have a reliable No. 4 starter so why force it with Cecconi or Nelson? Phillies manager Rob Thomson has used two different lineups this postseason:
| vs. RHP | vs. LHP |
|---|---|
1. DH Kyle Schwarber, LHB | 1. DH Kyle Schwarber, LHB |
2. SS Trea Turner, RHB | 2. SS Trea Turner, RHB |
3. 1B Bryce Harper, LHB | 3. 3B Alex Bohm, RHB |
4. 3B Alec Bohm, RHB | 4. 1B Bryce Harper, LHB |
5. 2B Bryson Stott, LHB | 5. C J.T. Realmuto, RHB |
6. C J.T. Realmuto, RHB | 6. RF Nick Castellanos, RHB |
7. RF Nick Castellanos, RHB | 7. 2B Bryson Stott, LHB |
8. LF Brandon Marsh, LHB | 8. LF Cristian Pache, RHB |
9. CF Johan Rojas, RHB | 9. CF Johan Rojas, RHB |
Marsh and Pache are a platoon and the middle of the lineup gets rearranged a bit depending on the opposing starter, but those are Thomson's lineups. Bohm's having a tough postseason and Castellanos was great in the NLDS, so swapping them would make sense, though Thomson typically errs on the side of "we're winning, so I'm not going to change anything."
Point is, Philadelphia's lineup has some nice lanes -- parts of the lineup that match up well for certain relievers -- to attack with a bullpen game. The D-backs have three lefty relievers (Joe Mantiply, Kyle Nelson, Andrew Saalfrank) they can use against the Schwarber to Harper lane and plenty of righties to match up against the lower part of the order.
The concern with a bullpen game is that, well, it's a bullpen game, and you're going to wear down your bullpen. Consider the NLCS schedule and Arizona's potential pitching plans:
| Date | Game | Starting pitcher |
|---|---|---|
Mon., Oct. 16 | Game 1 | Zac Gallen (announced) |
Tues., Oct. 17 | Game 2 | Merrill Kelly (announced) |
Weds., Oct. 18 | off-day | |
Thurs., Oct. 19 | Game 3 | Brandon Pfaadt |
Fri., Oct. 20 | Game 4 | bullpen game? |
Sat., Oct. 21 (if necessary) | Game 5 | Zac Gallen (normal rest) |
Sun., Oct. 22 (if necessary) | off-day | |
Mon., Oct. 23 | Game 6 | Merrill Kelly (extra day of rest) |
Tues., Oct. 24 (if necessary) | Game 7 | Brandon Pfaadt? (normal rest) |
A bullpen game in Game 4 could be tough with Pfaadt, who has operated with a short leash this postseason, going in Game 3. The D-backs could be looking at back-to-back bullpen games in Games 3 and 4. That said, it's the postseason, and you have to do what puts your team in the best position to win today. A bullpen game in Game 4 seems preferable to a full start from Cecconi or Nelson.
The other option is going old school and starting Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt on short rest, something none of them has ever done in their big-league careers. It's a lot to ask, especially with Gallen already up to 221 1/3 innings, but the postseason is when you ask a lot of your players, right? Given their No. 4 starter situation, it's at least worth considering. This would be the short rest schedule:
| Date | Game | Starting pitcher |
|---|---|---|
Mon., Oct. 16 | Game 1 | Zac Gallen (announced) |
Tues., Oct. 17 | Game 2 | Merrill Kelly (announced) |
Weds., Oct. 18 | off-day | |
Thurs., Oct. 19 | Game 3 | Brandon Pfaadt |
Fri., Oct. 20 | Game 4 | Zac Gallen (short rest) |
Sat., Oct. 21 (if necessary) | Game 5 | Merrill Kelly (short rest) |
Sun., Oct. 22 (if necessary) | off-day | |
Mon., Oct. 23 | Game 6 | Brandon Pfaadt (short rest) |
Tues., Oct. 24 (if necessary) | Game 7 | Zac Gallen (short rest again) |
Unless they're willing to push Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt on short rest, a bullpen game looks to be the best option for the D-backs in Game 4. And really, they don't have to make that decision right now. They can see how Games 1-3 play out, then decide. Maybe they'll be down 3-0 and decide to go with Gallen on short rest to save their season in Game 4. A lot will change in the coming days.
Arizona has the most difficult No. 4 starter decision because they simply lack good options. Manager Torey Lovullo can go with the inexperienced Cecconi, the ineffective Nelson, Gallen on short rest, or a straight bullpen game. Winning Games 1-3 would make the Game 4 decision easier. Build up some breathing room and go into Game 4 with a little cushion in the series.
Philadelphia Phillies
Nos. 1-3 starters: RHP Zack Wheeler, RHP Aaron Nola, LHP Ranger Suárez
No. 4 candidates: RHP Michael Lorenzen, LHP Cristopher Sánchez, RHP Taijuan Walker
Those are three pretty excellent No. 4 starter options, relatively speaking. Lorenzen and Walker are been there, done that veterans and Sánchez had a strong regular season. For what it's worth, it appears the No. 4 starter decision is down to Sánchez and Walker, which makes sense seeing how Lorenzen shifted into a bullpen role in September. He last started a game on Sept. 11.
The #Phillies will need a fourth starter in the NLCS. Neither Taijuan Walker nor Cristopher Sánchez has pitched in a game since Sept. 30. They were supposed to throw a simulated game today, according to Rob Thomson, but it got rained out. Try again tomorrow.
— Scott Lauber (@ScottLauber) October 14, 2023
Sánchez and Walker are similar in that they're low-90s sinker guys who use an offspeed pitch as their go-to secondary -- Sánchez uses a changeup, Walker a splitter -- though the similarities end there. Sánchez, a lefty, had the better regular season, especially when it comes to generating strikeouts and ground balls. The right-handed Walker was better at limiting hard contact.
The D-backs performed slightly better against righties than lefties during the regular season, though it's worth digging a little deeper. Here's how Arizona fared against lefty and righty pitch types:
| Pitch | AVG | SLG | Whiff% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
RHP sinker | .302 | .443 | 10.9% | 55.6% |
RHP splitter | .213 | .340 | 28.0% | 55.7% |
| Pitch | AVG | SLG | Whiff% | GB% |
LHP sinker | .278 | .396 | 14.3% | 53.4% |
LHP changeup | .244 | .376 | 28.5% | 50.9% |
The sample size against right-handed splitters is not especially big -- the D-backs saw only 468 splitters from righties during the regular season, with nearly 20% of them coming from San Francisco Giants split master Alex Cobb -- though I think those numbers against righty sinkers are hard to ignore. The D-backs hammered righty sinkers this year. They didn't swing and miss much either.
Also, Sánchez's changeup is not any old changeup. It's one of the best changeups in baseball and really one of the best individual pitches in the sport. Therein lies another question: is it better to give Sánchez the Game 4 start, or use him out of the bullpen so he and his elite changeup can impact more games? I guess the answer is the Phillies didn't need him in relief in the Wild Card Series or NLDS, did they? José Alvarado, Gregory Soto, and Matt Strahm are three pretty good bullpen lefties as it is.
There is one more thing to consider: Walker has minimal bullpen experience. He's made four relief appearances as a big leaguer and three of them came back in 2014, his rookie year. Sánchez has pitched out of the bullpen plenty. If Walker doesn't get that Game 4 start, then what's his role? How comfortable is he coming out of the bullpen and how comfortable is Thomson using him out of the bullpen? Walker might be nothing more than the emergency long man if he's not starting Game 4.
I think the fact Sánchez had the (much) better regular season and the D-backs fare well against right-handed sinkers (like Walker's) are good enough reasons to go with the young lefty. Of course, with the way Thomson has operated the last two postseasons, it could turn into a quasi-bullpen game. We could even see an opener in Game 4. In Sánchez and Walker, the Phillies have to good No. 4 starter candidates. I'd go Sánchez, though the case can be made for Walker, or even a bullpen game.
