As Astros and Red Sox jockey for MLB playoff seeding, American League postseason bracket gets muddier

Is facing the Yankees or the Mariners a better option for the Wild Card Series?

By Mike Axisa

Sep 17, 2025 at 10:50 am ET • 3 min read

Getty Images

If you're a fan of postseason races, the American League is where the action is this year. Only the third wild card spot is up for grabs in the National League, and we're talking about a bunch of .500-ish teams trying to catch the Mets there. Such is life with the third wild card spot. Teams that really have no business being in the postseason discussion are nonetheless in the race.

In the AL though, we have an honest-to-goodness division race and enough of a wild card race to keep everyone interested for at least another few days. The Astros are chasing the Mariners in the AL West, the Red Sox are trying to catch the Yankees for the top wild card spot, and several teams are trying to run down the Astros and Red Sox for a wild card spot in general.

Here are the most hotly contested AL races:

AL West	AL wild card
1. Mariners: 83-68	1. Yankees: 84-68 (+2 GB)
2. Astros: 83-69 (½ GB)	2. Astros: 83-69 (+½ GB)
3. Rangers: 79-73 (4 ½ GB)	3. Red Sox: 82-69
	4. Guardians: 79-71 (2 ½ GB)
	5. Rangers: 79-73 (3 ½ GB)

The Mariners and Astros will play three games in Houston this weekend in what could very well be the most important series of the 2025 regular season. It will help decide the AL West title and it is not a given the second-place team will go to the postseason. It's possible the AL West runner-up will miss the playoffs entirely.

On Tuesday night, the Astros beat the Rangers (HOU 6, TEX 5) while the Red Sox lost to the Athletics (ATH 2, BOS 1), which moved Houston into the second wild card spot and bumped the Red Sox down into the third wild card. If the season ended today, which it very much does not, the AL postseason field would shake out like this:

BYE: Blue Jays (AL East) and Tigers (AL Central)
WC: Red Sox (WC3) at Mariners (AL West)
WC: Astros (WC2) at Yankees (WC1)

If that holds, we would get yet another Astros vs. Yankees postseason series. That rivalry has been very one-sided, though the Astros look more vulnerable now than they have at any point in the last 7-8 years. Yordan Alvarez (ankle), Josh Hader (shoulder), and Isaac Paredes (hamstring) all have significant injuries and may not return in time for the Wild Card Series.

The Red Sox close the regular season at home. The difference between the second and third wild card is the difference between a quick trip to New York or a cross-country flight to Seattle for the Wild Card Series. The Red Sox have dominated the Yankees this year, winning the season series 9-4 while outscoring them 66-51. That includes five wins in seven games in Yankee Stadium.

Boston's season series with the Mariners is much more even (3-3 with a minus-3 run differential) and I'm not sure anyone wants to face that Seattle pitching staff in a short series. Once the Mariners shrink their staff to their eight or nine most trusted arms, they have a chance to be very dangerous in October. On paper, the Red Sox want the Yankees in the Wild Card Series, not the Mariners.

Some years, the case can be made the third wild card is preferable to the second wild card. You have to go on the road either way, though the top wild card team is often better than the worst division winner, and, if you advance, you get the No. 2 seed rather than the No. 1 seed in the LDS. The Tigers may be a more favorable matchup than the Blue Jays, who give off Team of Destiny vibes.

I'm not sure the third wild card being preferable holds this year though. Again, the Mariners have a chance to be very dangerous in a short series with that pitching staff. The Yankees have major bullpen issues (the bullpen turned a 10-1 lead into a 10-9 nail-biter win Tuesday) and are a sloppy team prone to mistakes. They'll beat themselves as much as they'll get beat by the other team.

Of course, the Astros and Red Sox can still catch the Yankees for the top wild card spot and thus home field advantage in the Wild Card Series, which everyone wants. That is especially true with these wild card contenders:

	Home	Road
Astros	45-32	38-37
Mariners	48-27	35-41
Red Sox	45-31	37-38
Yankees	44-31	40-36

It's cliche, but in a short playoff series, anything can happen, so those home/road records only mean so much. Still, ask the players and team personnel, and to a man they all want to play at home in the postseason. Home field advantage is very much up for grabs in the AL wild card race. Seeding may not be the most exciting race in the world, but it matters. A lot.