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Baseball is a game of matchups and with hundreds of data points to fuel decision-making, betting the right MLB underdogs can be lucrative. Aaron Judge might have hit the 10-day IL with a flexor strain, but the Yankees are still chasing a postseason berth and they're one of our top MLB longshot picks on Sunday against the Phillies. New York is listed as high as +110 in the latest MLB odds with Carlos Rodon taking on Zack Wheeler in an elite pitching matchup that begins at 1:35 p.m. ET.

Meanwhile, the model is also backing the Diamondbacks (+135) in a matchup with the Pirates that begins at 1:35 p.m., and the Giants (+130) as they take on the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlays, you'll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model. Bet on every MLB game at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $150 in bonus bets instantly with the latest DraftKings promo code:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 17 of the 2025 MLB season 46-43 on top-rated MLB picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 40 units of profit. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

The model has broken down the MLB betting odds for Monday and just revealed its top MLB longshot picks. Combining the model's three picks into an MLB parlay at BetMGM Sportsbook would result in a payout of +1035 (risk $100 to win $1,035). New users can even take advantage of the BetMGM bonus code offering up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses. Click here to claim the offer:

Here are its best longshot bets for the MLB slate on Sunday:

  • Yankees money line vs. Phillies (+110)
  • Diamondbacks money line vs. Pirates (+135)
  • Giants money line vs. Mets (+130)
  • Combine these picks for a shot at a +1035 payout (odds subject to change). Bet now at bet365, where new users can get $150 in bonus bets with a $5+ bet:

Yankees money line vs. Phillies (+110)

Rodon and Wheeler are two of the most dominant starters in baseball so far this season but these are also two of the better lineups in baseball, with both teams ranking top 10 in the MLB in runs scored. The Yankees have been outscored 21-9 over the first two games of the series, but beat the Phillies in seven of their previous eight head-to-head matchups prior to the start of this three-game set. Ultimately, the model is expecting a slightly higher-scoring affair than the over/under (7.5) would indicate and has the Yankees winning in 53% of simulations.

Diamondbacks money line vs. Pirates (+135)

Sitting fourth in the stacked NL West and three games under .500 on the season, the Diamondbacks are positioned as sellers at the MLB trade deadline, but that could be of benefit on Sunday. Zac Gallen is scheduled to take the mound in what should be his final scheduled start before Thursday's deadline, and it will be an opportunity to prove that his 5.58 ERA this season is a fluke and land a rotation spot for a contender. Gallen went 43-19 with a 3.20 ERA and 568 strikeouts over 542 innings in the three seasons prior to this one. Winning a duel against Paul Skenes would certainly boost his trade stock, and the model predicts that happens in 54% of its simulations.

Giants money line vs. Mets (+130)

A recent skid has put San Francisco on the outside looking in for the NL playoff picture, and dropping the first two games of this series hasn't helped. However, the Giants have one of baseball's best bullpens, and they'll look to lean on that unit in a bullpen day on Sunday. Randy Rodriguez, Tyler Rogers, Erik Miller and Camilo Doval are all having great seasons and Bob Melvin will hope to work the splits with that unit against a Mets offense that has been held to two runs or fewer in four of their last seven games. The model has the Giants winning in 53% of simulations.

Want more MLB picks for today?

You've seen some of the model's MLB best longshot bets for Sunday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top MLB picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who's on a sizzling 65-54-1 roll on his last 120 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who's up nearly 17 units.