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USATSI

The Miami Marlins were one of the biggest team-level surprises in the league last season, earning their first full-season playoff berth since 2003.

The Marlins celebrated their unexpected good fortune -- including an absurd 33-14 record in one-run games -- by taking a wrecking ball to their front office. Previous architect Kim Ng was replaced by Tampa Bay Rays executive Peter Bendix, who then overhauled the staff.

Just what comes next for these Marlins? Scroll slowly with us for an answer to that and other pressing questions. 

Win total projection, odds

  • 2023 record: 84-78 (third place in NL East)
  • 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 77.5 wins
  • World Series odds (via SportsLine): +9000

Projected lineup

  1. 2B Luis Arraez
  2. 1B Josh Bell
  3. 3B Jake Burger
  4. CF Jazz Chisholm Jr.
  5. LF Bryan De La Cruz
  6. SS Tim Anderson
  7. RF Jesús Sánchez
  8. C Nick Fortes
  9. DH Avisaíl García

The Marlins essentially swapped Jorge Soler, arguably the team's second best hitter last season, for Anderson. Otherwise, the starting nine went untouched over the winter. Bendix did acquire a few reserves who could factor into Skip Schumaker's lineups, notably catcher Christian Bethancourt, infielder Vidal Bruján, and outfielder Nick Gordon.

Projected rotation

  1. LHP Jesús Luzardo
  2. RHP Eury Pérez
  3. LHP A.J. Puk
  4. RHP Edward Cabrera
  5. LHP Trevor Rogers

Again, this is the same basic group as last season, minus one key figure: workhorse Sandy Alcantara will miss the season after he required Tommy John surgery. Lefty Braxton Garrett will also be sidelined to begin the year. Former top draft pick Max Meyer, now fully recovered from his own elbow operation, presumes to be the next pitcher up.

Projected bullpen

Once more, this is largely the same personnel as last year. The exceptions are Puk (now a starter) and Steven Okert, who was traded to the Twins for the aforementioned Gordon. Sánchez, who once seemed destined for stardom, is now just trying to throw his first big-league pitch since 2020.

Will new front office prove to be an upgrade?

As noted in the introduction, the Marlins responded to last year's run by making sweeping changes to their front office -- it's as if even they didn't buy into their success. Bendix then seemed to spend more energy tweaking his staff than the on-the-field roster. That was probably the right call, all things considered. 

We recently explained how other front offices perceived the Marlins under Ng as being antiquated in their approach and processes: 

The Marlins raised eyebrows when they moved on from Kim Ng following an unexpected playoff berth. The move wasn't a total shock inside the game, where Ng had faced criticism for overseeing an antiquated front office. The Marlins then embraced modernity by hiring Peter Bendix from the Rays. Bendix didn't do much to the on-field roster in his first winter, but he did add a number of well-regarded individuals to his front office, including Vinesh Kanthan, Sara Goodrum, and Sam Mondry-Cohen. The installation of new minds and new ideas could (should?) bode well for Miami's long-term outlook.

You might think, hey, the Marlins made the playoffs last year. How bad could their processes be? It's a fair point, but we do believe they've made a habit out of leaving money on the table. Take the draft for example. The Marlins, seldom a big spender, need to maximize their early selections if they want to maintain a good roster. In recent years, however, they've made one foreseeable mistake after another. 

Longtime readers of our draft coverage know that progressive organizations tend to avoid taking prep right-handers and catchers in the early going on account of their attrition rates. The Marlins didn't get the notice. Five of their 11 top-100 selections over the last three years have fit into one of those categories. Swimming against the current isn't always a bad thing; if you do it well you get described as exploiting inefficiencies. The Marlins just haven't done it well -- they haven't had a first-round pick amass more than 10 Wins Above Replacement at the big-league level since José Fernández, their top selection in 2011.

While MLB is ultimately a results-based business, the surest way to get results is to have a good process. That, above all else, is what the Marlins have to hope will be improved with their new crop of brains. Should they prove up for the challenge, the Marlins should find themselves in a better position.  

Can Puk start?

In our estimation, the most interesting subplot to this Marlins season is how Puk fares in his return to the rotation. 

Puk hasn't started a game since 2021, and he's never even "opened" a contest at the big-league level. Nonetheless, the Marlins are giving him the chance to stick in the rotation after a successful two-year stretch that saw him post a 3.51 ERA (116 ERA+) and a 4.28 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 120 appearances.

Whether or not Puk makes good on the opportunity is to be determined. You can piece together Miami's thinking from afar. Puk has two really good pitches in his mid-90s fastball and sweeper; he has a deceptively low and deep release point; and he has reliably thrown strikes. On paper, that just might work in today's game.

There is some potential downside here. Puk has an extensive injury history, for starters, and moving him into the rotation costs Miami an effective high-leverage reliever. The upside is gaining another above-average starter, and one who could double as an enticing trade chit at the deadline -- and yes, that possibility needs to be considered given that he's already 28 and into his arbitration years. 

What would make for a successful season?

The obvious answer is making the postseason in back-to-back years for the first time in franchise history. Alas, we're not sure that's in the cards for these Marlins -- success in one-run games is almost always fleeting on a year-to-year basis, and the odds are going to be further stacked against them without Soler or Alcantara on hand. 

Our alternative answer, then, is that the Marlins show signs of having a better process in place. That can mean in the draft, that can mean in how they approach the trade deadline, and that can mean taking calculated risks to maximize skill sets like Puk. A better approach isn't necessarily going to be visible in the standings -- at least not in the first year --  but if you pay close attention you should be able to catch glimpses of it along the course of the season.