Minnesota Twins 2021 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and three things to know

The Twins have lost 18 consecutive postseason games; might they end that streak this year?

By R.J. Anderson

Mar 15, 2021 at 11:38 am ET • 6 min read

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No matter which team you root for, you have to feel for the Minnesota Twins. They've appeared in three of the last four postseasons, including each of the past two as American League Central champions, yet they haven't won a playoff game -- as in a game, singular -- since 2004. Indeed, the Twins are 0 for their last 18, dating back to 2004, when Johan Santana willed them to a Game 1 victory over the New York Yankees.

The Twins have changed everything in the years since: stadiums and uniforms, managers and coaches, players; there's no discernible reason why they should be the ones experiencing this grand statistical improbability, other than that's just how life is: someone, somewhere has to be the exception at something sometimes.

Entering the new year, the Twins can only hope that the potential third time's the charm: the third consecutive playoff berth, the third trip to October under Rocco Baldelli, and so on. Will it be? Let's find out together.

Win total projections, odds

2021 Sportsline projection: 92-70
World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +1800
2020 record: 36-24

Projected lineup

Bench: C Mitch Garver; OF Jake Cave; INF Luis Arraez; 1B/OF Brent Rooker

The Twins ranked 16th in offense in the majors last season, per FanGraphs' park-adjusted wRC+ metric. Nevertheless, the Twins will return mostly the same lineup. The exceptions are Kirilloff, a well-regarded prospect who could give the Twins another above-average hitter, and Simmons, who is around for his glove. It's worth watching how Baldelli manages playing time at second base between Polanco and Arraez, and behind the dish between Jeffers and Garver.

Projected rotation

Bullpen: RHP Alex Colome; LHP Taylor Rogers; RHP Tyler Duffey; RHP Cody Stashek

Minnesota added a pair of new veteran starters to replace the outgoing Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill. Happ was better with the Yankees than people would guess (106 ERA+ in 51 appearances) while Shoemaker has been reliably unreliable. He hasn't appeared in at least 10 games in a season since 2017. With the exception of Colome, the Twins are mostly bringing back the same bullpen structure.

Now, onto three pertinent topics about your 2021 Twins.

1. Can they threepeat in the Central?

The biggest question concerning the Twins is whether or not they can retain a handhold on the division for a third consecutive season.

The AL Central figures to be, at best, a three-team race. The Royals don't appear good enough on paper to make it a four-teamer, and the Tigers are probably a year away from being a year away. That leaves the Twins facing direct competition from the White Sox and Cleveland, a team that weakened itself by trading Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco in January.

It would seem fair to conclude the White Sox had the better winter. They acquired Lance Lynn, Liam Hendriks, and Adam Eaton, and they still have the ability to improve internally by promoting Andrew Vaughn, the No. 3 pick in the 2019 draft, at some point.

Comparatively, the Twins had a quiet offseason. As noted above, their biggest additions were Andrelton Simmons, Alex Colome, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker. Will those moves prove to be enough to keep the Twins on top? Projection systems seem to think so. SportsLine and PECOTA both have the Twins five wins up on the second-place finisher, while FanGraphs' ZiPs has the Twins tied with the White Sox for first.

If you're looking for other reasons to believe in the Twins, we would offer two additional keys to their year: health and youth. Last year, for instance, the Twins had Josh Donaldson and Byron Buxton combine for 57 games played, or less than half the maximum amount. An improvement upon that ratio could prove to a boon. Meanwhile, so far as the youngsters are concerned, the development and acclimation of Kirilloff, Jeffers, and Arraez could give the Twins a deeper, more potent offense -- even if they don't necessarily threaten pitchers (and scoreboard operators) like 2019.

It's reasonable to have the Twins as the favorites to win the division entering the season. How those aspects play out over the course of the year will go a long way in informing who wins when game 162 goes final.

2. Can Nelson Cruz still join the 500-homer club?

We're inclined to say no, and that's too bad.

Cruz homered 16 times in 53 games last season, putting him on pace for 40-something over a normal campaign. If he had been able to hit those 40 homers, he would've entered this season needing about 60 more to cross the 500-homer threshold. Instead, Cruz will require another 83 home runs to join the 500-homer club. It seems highly, highly unlikely at this point that he's going to be able to muster another 83 home runs.

There are a few reasons for that, beginning with Cruz's age. He'll celebrate his 41st birthday in July, which is notable since only five players have ever homered more than 50 times after their 40th birthday. Just one of those players, Carlton Fisk, topped 60 home runs in his 40s. Fisk finished with 72, or 11 fewer than Cruz would need for No. 500.

Even if Cruz does his part this season, homering 40-plus times with the deadened ball in 2021, he might not get a chance to add any to his tally in 2022 because of a potential work stoppage. If the 2022 season is compromised, even a little, Cruz likely wouldn't get a chance for No. 500 until 2023 … when he was nearing his 43rd birthday.

Cruz shouldn't need to hit 500 home runs in order for everyone to celebrate his tremendous, late-blooming career. The sooner everyone comes to terms with that, the better -- and the less headache we'll have to deal with once he retires.

3. Who is the next Twins bullpen find?

In two years at the helm, pitching coach Wes Johnson has helped the Twins milk unexpected production from bargain additions like Matt Wisler and Ryne Harper. Who, pray tell, might be this year's unexpected savior?

Hansel Robles could well bounce back, but anyone a year removed from a 2.48 ERA, 23-saved season can hardly be described as rising from out of nowhere. Fortunately, the Twins have a slew of down-roster types to consider. That group includes Shaun Anderson, who served as our breakout pick for Minnesota based on his plus slider.

Allow us to highlight five other candidates for this very niche achievement:

Ian Gibaut has missed a lot of bats with his fastball and slider during his 24 career big-league appearances, resulting in 10 strikeouts out per nine. He's missed the zone almost as frequently, which explains his 1.58 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If he can throw more strikes -- oh so easy -- he could still have a career.
Back in 2016, Derek Law looked to be on the road to becoming a fixture in San Francisco: in 61 appearances he struck out 5.56 batters per walk issued and had a 190 ERA+. He seems like a prime candidate for a pitch-mix overhaul, likely with the Twins asking him to chuck his swing-and-miss slider far more frequently.
You can make the case that Juan Minaya shouldn't count. He has a career 111 ERA+ and 2.15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 125 outings. Minaya got pushed out of the picture with the White Sox last year, but he's done enough against major-league hitters to envision him holding down a middle-relief spot.
Another former member of the White Sox bullpen, Ian Hamilton is a fastball-slider righty whose career has been derailed since he was hit in the face by a line drive in summer 2019.
Then there's Danny Coulombe, entering his second season with the Twins. He doesn't throw hard whatsoever, but he showed an eagerness to spam the opposition with curveballs in two appearances last season. Perhaps he'll get another opportunity to do so this year, and maybe he'll stick as a result.

The Twins added only two established relievers this winter, in Colome and Robles, so Johnson may have to work his magic on the margins if Minnesota is to improve on last year's sixth-place rank for bullpen ERA.