Nationals need World Series more than anyone now that Cubs' drought is over
The sense of urgency in D.C. is the highest in MLB, but they might be in position to do something about it
By
Jonah Keri
•
8 min read
With Chicago still celebrating months after the fact, we can safely cross the Cubs off the top of our list of franchises with the greatest sense of World Series urgency. No team will come close to matching the buildup that comes with a 108-year drought, of course. Still, if any organization would seem particularly eager to win big and win soon, it might be the Nationals.
Start with the franchise history. The Nats have never even made it to an NLCS since debuting in D.C. in 2005. Their predecessors, the Montreal Expos, managed just one playoff appearance in 36 seasons, and that lone October sojourn came during the weird strike year of 1981.
Then there’s the owner. Though billionaires can have many reasons to own sports teams, high on the list is the chance to win a championship. The recent death of Tigers owner Mike Ilitch, following several megadeals handed out by the team’s owner, reminds us of that quest for a ring.
Nats owner Ted Lerner is 91 years old. When you’re 91, all of life’s challenges take on greater urgency.
Finally, there’s the Bryce Harper Watch. The most electric player in Nationals history can test free agency after the 2018 season. With huge-revenue teams like the Yankees conspicuously watching their budgets lately, you can already sense the Harper feeding frenzy to come. A trip to the Fall Classic this season or next thus becomes pressing -- if not now, when?
Despite a seemingly obvious win-now timeline, the Nats also seem to have a problem. While most major contenders can claim an experienced, top-flight closer at the back of their bullpen, the Nats can make no such claim.
How they handle that apparent hole could tell us a lot about Washington’s chances to finally make a World Series run. But it could also underscore a completely different perspective. The Nationals want to win now. But in a league that boasts two superpowers in Chicago and L.A. with the combination of youth, money and smarts to be lasting contenders, the Nats are shooting for their own sustained success.
The move that could prompt an inflection for the Nationals and general manager Mike Rizzo happened Tuesday. After losing (now-injured) 2016 hitting star Wilson Ramos to free agency and settling for a buy-low on erratic catcher Derek Norris, the Nationals scooped up Matt Wieters on a two-year, $21 million contract.
I hosted agent Scott Boras on my podcast just a few days before Wieters sealed the deal with the Nationals. One of the most remarkable comments of the hour-plus conversation came when Boras ... well, he didn’t quite directly compare Wieters to Hall of Famer Carlton Fisk, but he did imply parts of that comparison. Another telling point came when Boras was asked about his proclivity to bypass negotiations with general managers and instead work on deals with team owners.
“I can talk to owners in a much different way than a general manager, because he works for them,” Boras said. “I can bring things to owners in a way ... and get them to say and do things that I don’t think the general manager with his job description ever wants to be in that position. Because the fact is that you’re putting the owner sometimes in a place where you’re illustrating to him that if you don’t do certain things, a lot of negative things are going to happen to the perception of you. And that part of that is not something that a general manager ever brings to the table.”
Though Boras was speaking in general terms, there was no mistaking the subtext. While Boras Corp. doesn’t publicly release a complete list of its clients, the information that’s out there reveals an unbelievable trend. According to one best-guess estimate on Reddit, seven different teams are tied for employing the second-most Boras clients, with four apiece. When he came to terms with the Nats this week, Wieters became the 12th -- yes, the twelfth -- Boras client to suit up for the nation’s capital’s team.
To Boras, that relationship demonstrates the deep impact his clients have had on the franchise.
“I met an owner from Washington, D.C. [whose team] was worth $400 million when I met him,” Boras said. “Now the franchise is worth over $2 billion.”
The Wieters deal creates a surplus of catchers on the 40-man roster. The Nats now count Wieters, Norris and 2016 backup Jose Lobaton as obvious major league-ready receivers, as well as top organizational catching prospect Pedro Severino and 25-year-old Spencer Kieboom on the 40-man. The Nationals were forthcoming with Norris about the pending Wieters signing, and manager Dusty Baker has intimated that the team will likely try to trade Norris at this point. If that happens, the Nats should expect to get little or nothing in return, given that Norris is owed $4.2 million this year after batting just .186/.255/.328 last season in San Diego.
The bigger question is if Rizzo plans to make the easy move and offload Norris for next to nothing ... or get aggressive. The White Sox have reportedly expressed interest in Severino, a promising 23-year-old catcher with a great throwing arm and surprising athleticism. The Nationals and White Sox were rumored to be in trade talks for a while, with Severino and Chicago closer David Robertson discussed as the two key players in a possible trade. Rizzo could thus face a tough choice: Trade the team’s potential catcher of the future for a two-year rental on a veteran closer, or hold tight and figure out the bullpen situation later, as needed.
It’s tough to know which way he’ll go. On one hand, all those win-now indicators are very real. In addition to the Lerner factor and Harper’s free-agency clock ticking, you have star second Daniel Murphy eligible to file for free agency after 2018 too. Thirty-seven-year-old right fielder (and Boras client) Jayson Werth can test the open market at the end of this year. Dual aces Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg (both Boras clients) are both eligible for huge pay bumps after the 2018 season. Three members of the team’s vaunted rotation (Scherzer, along with Tanner Roark and Boras client Gio Gonzalez) are over 30. You could argue that there’s a clear championship window here, and that the Nationals would be wise to do everything they can to load up now. That loading up should include grabbing a bullpen ace following the departure of Mark Melancon to free agency, thus addressing the team’s lone glaring weakness.
On the other hand, consider the moves Rizzo has made (and not made) over the past few years. Arguably his signature trade was the three-teamer Washington pulled off with the Padres and Rays. Yes, the Nats traded away a young outfielder in Steven Souza who had only one year of major-league service time under his belt. But the return was both gigantic, and forward-thinking: Impressive right-hander Joe Ross (now 23 and slated to be the team’s fifth starter this season), and Trea Turner, a top prospect who blossomed into an instant star as a rookie last year and opens this season as a 23-year-old beast of a leadoff man and starting shortstop.
Yes, Rizzo also traded right-handed pitching prospect Alex Meyer to the Twins for veteran outfielder Denard Span. But that came two years after he also flipped veteran closer Matt Capps to Minnesota for future star catcher Wilson Ramos. Yes, Rizzo gave up dynamic pitching prospects Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in a blockbuster trade with the White Sox for Adam Eaton over the winter. But Giolito’s top-prospect sheen faded a bit last year amid command problems in Double-A and the big leagues, Lopez is considered more of a back-of-the-rotation candidate, and Eaton is a versatile, 28-year-old center fielder in his prime, signed to a dirt-cheap contract that can bind him to the Nats through 2021.
If there’s a cohesive pattern to be found within all these moves, it’s that Rizzo will trade some solid prospects to upgrade the big-league roster, but he’ll stop short of dealing those you would consider closest to being can’t-miss guys. Even trading away Severino wouldn’t violate any core principles, much as the Nats might like to keep him: Consider that one of the most talked about options for Washington at closer this winter was to hand out a record-breaking contract to a pitcher who just last year was suspended for domestic violence, and two years of Robertson at a fraction of the price becomes a great alternative to the potential $86 million pain in the ass that is Aroldis Chapman.
The bottom line is that the Nationals have options. They can make a trade now to address their lack of bullpen depth, or wait until this summer, when various reliever rentals might come at an even lower cost. If franchise lifer Ryan Zimmerman is a sub-replacement level-player again this year, they’ll either slide cheaply acquired recent pickup Adam Lind in at first base, or go spend to get someone better. If an injury strikes in the infield or outfield, speedy prospect Wilmer Difo could prove a capable callup, sliding into a middle infield spot or even nudging Turner back to temporary outfield duty if necessary. And if an impact move does need to be made, a farm system that’s considerably shallower after the Eaton deal still carries attractive pieces like right-hander Erick Fedde and outfielder Juan Soto, top-60 overall prospects who could be attractive enough to other teams for Rizzo to avoid dealing his current version of a near-can’t miss guy, electric 19-year-old outfielder Victor Robles.
So yes, this is a team with plenty of reasons to push all-in in its quest to finally win the big one. But Rizzo and his lieutenants have collectively established themselves as one of the best front offices in the game, equally adept at collecting premium young talent and making Boras a very wealthy man when buying big-ticket items becomes necessary.
The Bryce Harper Era might be considered a bit of a failure so far, given Washington’s inability to advance past the NLDS to date. But there’s enough talent here to surge past that level this time, and embrace all of that urgency. More than almost any other team in baseball, the Nationals are in good hands.
