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The 2022 Toronto Blue Jays season was quite a mixed bag. The 91-win season in 2021 looked like a breakthrough in front of what could blossom into a powerhouse team. Remember, 2021 MVP runner-up Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. famously said that it was the trailer and the 2022 season would be the movie. Many, myself included, predicted Toronto would win the World Series. 

The movie was uneven with some very high highs and a terrible finish as the Jays blew a seven-run lead in a season-ending loss to the Mariners on Saturday.

We don't need to relive it here. Everyone who cared enough about the Blue Jays to read this is well aware. 

The bottom line was that the team was good enough to win 92 games and host a playoff series, but it was down enough that it got a manager fired and had to play in the Wild Card Series instead of winning the AL East and grabbing a bye into a round with a longer series. Let's break down what went wrong and what's next in Toronto.

What went wrong

Generally speaking, as a unit, it wasn't the offense. The Blue Jays led the AL in hits, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. And OPS and total bases. They were second in runs scored and doubles and were third in home runs. 

They seem like they should have been scarier, though, right? Vlad wasn't the one-man wrecking crew he was last season. Bo Bichette's season line was rescued by him going ballistic down the stretch. Teoscar Hernández had a bad start. Lourdes Gurriel lost his home-run power. We could talk about Matt Chapman's low-ish average, too. It was just a lot of little stuff where they weren't quite as terrifying as many thought they would be. 

On the mound, they had problems from the start. Hyun-Jin Ryu was mostly injured and bad when he wasn't. Yusei Kikuchi didn't work. Most importantly, José Berríos had, by far, the worst season of his career. He finished ninth in Cy Young voting 2021 and with the way Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah pitched like a pair of aces most of the season, this should have been a Big Three. 

Instead, Berríos posted a 5.23 ERA and 1.42 WHIP while leading the AL in both hits and earned runs allowed. 

There were also issues with consistency in the bullpen in front of closer Jordan Romano, especially in May and June before the managerial change. 

Since the year wasn't a disaster -- they won 92 games -- there wasn't really one huge area of concern for the whole season. It was just a series of things that went wrong at different times. 

The core remains strong

Basically, a lot of what went wrong could be fixed just with what the Blue Jays have moving forward. 

Between stud leadoff man George Springer, top dogs Guerrero and Bichette, excellent supporting-cast bats like Hernández and Chapman and an outrageously good situation at catcher with Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen and prospect Gabriel Moreno, the Jays are in such great shape on the position side. Guerrero, Bichette, Kirk and Moreno are all younger than Adley Rutschman, by the way. This is to say the Blue Jays are really well set up here and will probably have a better offensive season in 2023. 

Surely Berríos isn't cooked, right? He is only 28. There's too much talent in there to have another season like that, so the organization needs to put in some offseason work to figure out what can be done and hit the ground running with him in the spring. It's still possible to have three aces here. They did go 23-9 in his starts, but having him as his best self makes things easier everywhere else -- including not taxing the bullpen. 

Despite the blown save in Game 2 -- and the bases-clearing blooper from J.P. Crawford wasn't even remotely his fault -- Romano is a keeper at closer. The bridge to Romano could use some shoring up, but that could be done cheaply and relievers are volatile from year to year anyway. 

They have some prospects ready to make an impact, possibly as soon as next year. Infielder Orelvis Martinez, right-handed pitcher Yosver Zulueta and right-hander Hayden Juenger are among the group that isn't too far away from joining the big-league club. 

Also, it's always possible Nate Pearson makes good on his promise as a post-hype guy, likely in the bullpen. There's a lot of talent in that arm. 

Finally, under manager John Schneider, the Blue Jays finished the regular season 46-28. That's a full-season pace of 101 wins and they played in the toughest division in baseball. Maybe the change made a big difference and will carry over into 2023. 

Quiet offseason?

One thing they need to address is Ross Stripling. He ended up being so valuable to the 2022 success despite entering the season in the bullpen. He really helped absorb the loss of Ryu. 

If Stripling walks, the Jays might want to add a mid-rotation starter. 

I would not expect them to go crazy in free agency or anything, though. The Blue Jays have an estimated payroll right now around $175 million for next season and they were around $190 million this season. 

No, it should mostly be what they have in house. That isn't a problem. 

The bottom line for 2023

They don't really have to do a ton this offseason, in terms of shuffling players around, in order to be one of the best teams entering 2023. The blown lead in Game 2 obviously leaves a bad taste as we look to evaluate where this team stands, but a few breaks and they could have been celebrating a World Series title. They aren't that far away. Discounting them based on a two-game sample would be foolish.