UFC 2021 fight predictions: Picking champions in each weight class by the end of the year
From women's strawweight to heavyweight, we break it all down
UFC in 2020 was a rare year. Not only in how the company put on events amid a global pandemic, but in that no champions lost their titles in the Octagon for the first time since 1999. Three new champions were crowned in flyweight king Deiveson Figueiredo, bantamweight champ Petr Yan and light heavyweight strapholder Jan Blachowicz, but those came after titles were vacated by Henry Cejudo and Jon Jones.
As we head into 2021, it's time to look at who we think will be holding each UFC title by the end of 2021. There are some surprises and bold predictions ahead, but one thing we believe to be true is that at least one champion will be dethroned in the Octagon this year. These predictions are for who we believe will be holding the titles at the end of the calendar year.
Let's get to the picks.
UFC championship predictions for Dec. 31, 2021
| Weightclass | Campbell | Brookhouse |
|---|---|---|
Women's strawweight | Rose Namajunas | Weili Zhang |
Women's flyweight | Valentina Shevchenko | Valentina Shevchenko |
Women's bantamweight | Valentina Shevchenko | Amanda Nunes |
Women's featherweight | Amanda Nunes | Amanda Nunes |
Flyweight | Deiveson Figueiredo | Deiveson Figueiredo |
Bantamweight | Petr Yan | Petr Yan |
Featherweight | Zabit Magomedsharipov | Alexander Volkanovski |
Lightweight | Conor McGregor | Conor McGregor |
Welterweight | Kamaru Usman | Kamaru Usman |
Middleweight | Israel Adesanya | Israel Adesanya |
Light heavyweight | Israel Adesanya | Israel Adesanya |
Heavyweight | Jon Jones | Vacant |
Brookhouse on Weili Zhang -- There are certainly threats to Zhang's run as champion. She certainly didn't have an easy time with Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their 2020 Fight of the Year winner. A rematch between the two would be outstanding and a high-risk fight yet again. The same can be said for a battle with Rose Namajunas. Still, Zhang has the skills to survive those fights and retain her status as champion.
Campbell on Rose Namajunas -- Namajunas proved she could go through hell and back in her rematch against Jessica Andrade. The importance of that surrounds the fact that the former champion might still be the most skilled fighter in the division. An eventual showdown with Weili Zhang will be no walk in the park, but it's a style matchup that should favor the longer and more precise Namajunas.
Campbell on Valentina Shevchenko -- UFC is going to book a third shot at Amanda Nunes' 135-pound title for Shevchenko eventually and given that both are just about out of quality opponents (save for Shevchenko facing former strawweight queen Jessica Andrade), there's no reason it shouldn't happen this year. There's an argument to make that Shevchenko came as close as anyone has to figuring out the elite version of Nunes in their disputed rematch. There's just as strong a case to make that Nunes has passed her absolute prime and that Shevchenko is just approaching hers. The move down to 125 pounds helped Shevchenko become more of an offensive stalker rather than a counter striker. An increase in volume could prove to be the difference for Shevchenko in a trilogy.
Brookhouse on Petr Yan -- Aljamain Sterling is a really strong contender to take the title. When Sterling's game is clicking, he's a relentless grappler who can pull off moments like his 88-second thrashing of Cory Sandhagen. Yan is a tremendous striker and doesn't fall into traps that get him beat, which has been an issue for Sterling in the past. After Sterling, it's hard to see someone with a strong edge over Yan. It should be a good year for the bantamweight champ.
Brookhouse on Alexander Volkanovski -- For some reason, Volkanovski doesn't get much consideration as the dominant fighter he is. Yes, the second Max Holloway fight was a controversial decision win for him, but the first was a clear victory. Volkanovski showing he can hang with one of the division's all-time greats and beat him -- once, if not twice -- should have built up a lot more respect for his skills than it has. I'm not ready to say Brian Ortega has overcome past flaws on the strength of a single fight, nor am I ready to say that Zabit Magomedsharipov has proven that he's on Volkanovski's level based on level of opposition to this point. Beyond those two, it's hard to see anyone giving Volkanovski a truly difficult challenge.
Campbell on Zabit Magomedsharipov -- An injury to his opponent kept Magomedsharipov from his lone scheduled appearance in 2020. Still, he remains an enigma of sorts among elite fighters at 145 pounds because no one is quite sure how great he can become. Although the title picture is a bit crowded in front of him with both Brian Ortega and the winner of Max Holloway-Calvin Kattar hoping to get a crack this year, Magomedsharipov is probably one big win away from joining them. He also remains among the toughest of potential style matchups for whomever has the belt by then given his size and versatile skills.
Brookhouse on Conor McGregor -- I do believe there's a strong chance for an out-of-nowhere title run for Charles Oliveira in 2021, but McGregor has the benefit of the UFC really wanting him to be champion. That means he'll get the opportunity to fight for the belt in ideal circumstances. The one wrinkle is whether or not Khabib Nurmagomedov returns for one more fight and holds the title at the end of 2021. Nurmagomedov beats any possible opponent at 155 pounds, including dominating McGregor again.
Brookhouse on Kamaru Usman -- There's nothing fancy to picking Usman here. He's simply better than everyone else in the division. Colby Covington gave Usman hell and Usman pushed through the challenge to score a brutal late stoppage. Jorge Masvidal had nothing for Usman and likely wouldn't even with a full camp -- it's just that bad of a style matchup for him. Gilbert Burns is a good fighter, but it's hard to see him hanging with Usman in a five-round fight. And a rising force like Khamzat Chimaev is a year or two away from a title fight. This is Usman's division for the foreseeable future.
Campbell on Israel Adesanya -- The UFC has given Adesanya ample opportunity to use 2021 as his breakout campaign to global stardom. Up first is a shot at Jan Blachowicz's 205-pound title in March. The matchup has all the makings to be a nightmare for the Polish slugger given the speed differential. Should Adesanya become a two-division champion and look to defend his middleweight title again to close the calendar year, it could keep the light heavyweight crown on ice for a bit. Either way, just three years into his UFC run, Adesanya is on the verge of doing major things.
Campbell on Jon Jones -- Although his move to the heavyweight division has felt inevitable for years, Jones will finally make the leap this year. At 33, he's also still young enough to make an immediate splash up to and including capturing the title. Jones has a big frame and an almost supernatural reach, which should make the transition less difficult. He'll also have tremendous advantages in hand speed and defense against the opposition.
Brookhouse on the Heavyweight division -- Stipe Miocic has routinely hinted that his retirement is fast approaching. Things move slow at the top of the heavyweight division. Those two things could very realistically lead to a situation where Miocic beats Francis Ngannou -- which I think he will -- and then take time to think about his future only to choose to not return to the Octagon. That could also happen if Miocic beats Ngannou and then closes out his year by fighting (and potentially beating) Jon Jones before retiring, leaving the belt vacant when 2021 comes to a close.
