UFC 239 predictions, expert picks for Jon Jones vs. Thiago Santos: Fight card, odds, start time
Check out who the experts at CBS Sports are picking for the year's biggest MMA card
It's time to find out if there are truly levels to this game. UFC 239 is set from Las Vegas on Saturday night featuring a pair of title fights in the main and co-main events. Arguably the greatest of all time, Jon Jones, will put his light heavyweight title on the line when he takes on powerful striker Thiago Santos. Though many have touted this as the next wave of young challengers for Jones' throne, Santos is actually 35-years old and on his reinvention tour after starting his career at middleweight.
Then in the co-main event, women's two-division champion Amanda Nunes will put her bantamweight belt on the line against former 135-pound titleholder Holly Holm. Though Holm's record has not been great of late, she is the last current or former champion available for Nunes to defeat in the history of women's UFC.
Can't get enough UFC? Subscribe to our podcast State of Combat with Brian Campbell where we break down everything you need to know in the Octagon, including a loaded preview for UFC 239 at the 56:59 mark below.
As is typically the case with International Fight Week, the entire fight card is loaded with fan favorites and prospects looking to make a name for themselves. The "people's main event" on the main card pits Ben Askren and Jorge Masvidal in a de facto welterweight title eliminator while Luke Rockhold makes his debut at 205 pounds against Jan Blachowicz. Plus, the always wild Diego Sanchez is back when he takes on Michael Chiesa.
With such a loaded event on tap, the crew at CBS Sports went ahead with predictions and picks for the main card with latest odds from MGM. Here are your pick makers: Brian Campbell (combat sports writer), Matthew Coca (producer), Jack Crosby (editor), Michael Mormile (producer) and Brandon Wise (editor).
| Fight | Campbell | Coca | Crosby | Mormile | Wise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jones (c) -750 vs. Santos +475 | Jones | Jones | Jones | Jones | Jones |
Nunes (c) -400 vs. Holm +310 | Nunes | Nunes | Nunes | Nunes | Nunes |
Askren -240 vs. Masvidal +190 | Askren | Masvidal | Askren | Askren | Masvidal |
Rockhold -220 vs. Blachowicz +180 | Blachowicz | Rockhold | Blachowicz | Rockhold | Blachowicz |
Chiesa -350 vs. Sanchez +290 | Chiesa | Sanchez | Chiesa | Chiesa | Chiesa |
Campbell on why Jones will win: While Santos surely brings a puncher's chance and a respectable win streak in this title bout, Jones is a heavy favorite for a reason. He isn't merely the G.O.A.T. because of his physical advantages and historically strong chin. It's the adjustments Jones has shown in recent fights and the efficient nature in which his game has evolved since turning 30 that arguably make him more dangerous than ever. Jones has the built-in reach advantage to control distance with ease and the firepower to make opponents pay for crossing the line. How long Santos hangs around will be dependent upon how aggressively he goes for the upset win.
Wise on why Nunes will win: This fight is all about legacy. While Holm has the chance to play spoiler just like she did in 2015, Nunes is not the same one-dimensional fighter Ronda Rousey was on that fateful night from Australia. Nunes has made these wins look so easy that this seems to be a ripe spot to take the underdog who might be overconfident, but Nunes is just that much better. Looks for "The Lioness" to push the pace and look to use her wrestling against the traditional kickboxer.
Crosby on why Askren will win: His controversial debut victory may have soured some on him, but I chose to focus on how incredible it was that not only was Askren able to absorb the punishment he did from Robbie Lawler but maintain the poise in order even secure the choke in the first place. I don't suspect that Masvidal will charge out of the gate as hard as Lawler did, but even if he does, Askren has enough veteran savvy to avoid history repeating itself. Masvidal won't be able to work around the wrestling of Askren, who will likely come away with the three-round decision and a future date with welterweight champ Kamaru Usman.
Wise on why Masvidal will win: The bad blood in this feud seems to be real -- at least on Masvidal's end. And while picking a fighter who might be borderline reckless in going forward and pushing for a knockout tends to not work out, there's something about how "Gamebred" is talking and planning his attack on Askren. If he is able to keep this fight on its feet by throwing kicks and knees when Askren shoots for takedowns, Masvidal will walk out of T-Mobile Arena victorious and one step closer to a title shot.
Coca on why Rockhold will win: It's been four years since Rockhold finished his savage run through the middleweight division. Since then, we've only seen him inside the cage three times. He's 1-2 in those fights with both losses being knockouts. It's taken him 17 months to get to ready for his light heavyweight debut, so I believe he's going to be ready for this fight, both physically and mentally. He has the size to be able to put on this extra weight and still keep his athleticism, too. I also think weight cuts are always a problem and could have been a factor in his last few losses. Can he take a punch at this weight? Maybe. Will he have the power to drop Jan? Probably. Does he have the skill set to win this fight? Absolutely.
Crosby on why Blachowicz will win: Personally, this was 50/50 for me because I do believe that Rockhold has the ability to begin a career resurgence this weekend at 205 pounds. When it comes down to it, though, I think the long layoff between fights coupled with the damage his body has been through will ultimately hold him back from a victory in this debut outing. He'll likely lose a decision to Blachowicz, but he'll still prove, to some extent, that he has a future at light heavyweight and could one day earn a title opportunity down the road.
Campbell on why Chiesa will win: The recent reinvention of the 37-year-old Sanchez has been a fun journey to behold. Long known for his wrestling base and affinity to brawling, it has been the exploration of his jiu-jitsu game that has spoken well to him being a student of the game. It has also helped his longevity. But Chiesa is simply a younger and better version of the fighter Sanchez is trying to become. No, he isn't a dangerous striker on that level but he has the ability to take Sanchez down, drain his gas tank and look to set up a submission to end it. One can expect there will be action in this one but this is a fight Chiesa should win.
Who wins Santos vs. Jones? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 239, all from the incomparable expert who's up nearly $23,000 on MMA in the past year, and find out.















