2021 NFL Draft: Could Jaguars trade the No. 1 pick? What it would take, potential suitors, trade packages
It may be very unlikely, but history says it's not impossible
•
8 min read
Ever since the Jacksonville Jaguars secured the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, it's been a foregone conclusion among fans, media and teams alike that Trevor Lawrence, the star Clemson quarterback, will be the top selection. Lawrence is generally considered one of the best signal-callers to come out of college in at least several years, the Jaguars are in dire need of a new face of the franchise, and Jacksonville's veteran additions are already merrily hinting at the opportunity to play alongside the hotshot rookie.
But what if the No. 1 pick were for sale? Yes, the odds are stacked heavily against it. Would Urban Meyer have returned to the sidelines, especially for such a downtrodden franchise, if it weren't for Lawrence's assured arrival? Doubtful. But it's not like there isn't precedent for dealing the first overall selection. In the last 60 years, the No. 1 pick has been dealt nine times -- hardly a regularity, but far from an impossibility:
| Year | Team Trading Out | Team Trading Up | Picks Moved Up | Player Drafted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | QB Jared Goff | ||
2001 | 4 | QB Michael Vick | ||
1997 | Rams | 5 | OT Orlando Pace | |
1995 | 5 | RB Ki-Jana Carter | ||
| 1991 | Patriots | Cowboys | 10 | DT Russell Maryland |
| 1990 | Falcons | Colts | N/A | QB Jeff George |
| 1984 | Patriots | Bengals | 15 | WR Irving Fryar |
| 1978 | Buccaneers | Oilers | 16 | RB Earl Campbell |
| 1975 | Colts | Falcons | 2 | QB Steve Bartkowski |
Four of the nine No. 1 pick trades resulted in a quarterback being taken first overall, so it's not as if teams haven't surrendered potential franchise passers, either. Again, is Lawrence a different animal altogether? Probably, especially in comparison to, say, Jared Goff, who wasn't even the consensus top QB coming out alongside No. 2 pick Carson Wentz. But the reality is that No. 1 picks can fetch a fortune, and it just so happens that teams picking No. 1 tend to need a lot more than a single player to change their own fortunes.
Who, in 2021, might call the Jags to at least explore the possibility of a trade up? You can bet plenty already have, even if Meyer and Co. waste no time rebuffing them. But we'd consider these nine teams the most likely to be serious suitors in the event Jacksonville actually fielded offers (listed in order of their first-round picks):
- New York Jets
- Miami Dolphins
- Atlanta Falcons
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Detroit Lions
- Carolina Panthers
- San Francisco 49ers
- New England Patriots
- Chicago Bears
Other teams picking in the top 30 that we'd rule out: the Bengals (5), who have Joe Burrow; the Cowboys (10), who just paid Dak Prescott; the Giants (11), who are serious about Daniel Jones; the Chargers (13), who have Justin Herbert; the Vikings (14), who aren't ready for such a bold swing with Kirk Cousins in tow; the Cardinals (16), who have Kyler Murray; the Raiders (17), who have Derek Carr; the Colts (21), who just acquired Carson Wentz; and the Saints (28), who just don't have the capital to move that far.
Before we dive deeper into why the aforementioned nine suitors would consider trying to move to No. 1 for Lawrence, and what they might offer to do so, we should also note that countless drafts have proven teams aren't hesitant to make major leaps up when they're in love with a prospect. So just because a team currently sits at No. 15 doesn't mean it wouldn't try moving all the way to No. 1. It would be extremely costly, of course, but again, there is a precedent. Here are just a few of the most notable leaps of the last five decades or so:
| Year | Team | Original Pick | Acquired Pick | Picks Moved Up | Player Drafted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Ravens | 52 | 32 | 20 | QB Lamar Jackson |
| 2018 | 27 | 10 | 17 | ||
| 2018 | 25 | 12 | 13 | ||
| 2016 | Rams | 15 | 1 | 14 | QB Jared Goff |
| 2011 | Falcons | 26 | 6 | 20 | WR Julio Jones |
| 2003 | Steelers | 27 | 16 | 11 | S Troy Polamalu |
| 1985 | 49ers | 28 | 16 | 12 | WR Jerry Rice |
| 1977 | Cowboys | 14 | 2 | 12 | RB Tony Dorsett |
Now that we've seen the impossible -- trading way up the first round, even to No. 1, for a QB -- is actually possible, let's have a look at what our nine potential suitors could actually offer the Jaguars.
New York Jets
Potential offer: 2021 first (No. 2), 2022 first (via Seahawks), 2021 second (No. 34), 2022 second, 2021 fourth (No. 107)
The Jets could obviously throw Sam Darnold in here, seeing as they'd be replacing him with Lawrence, but chances are Meyer would rather just draft a new QB with the Jets' No. 2 pick (like, say, Ohio State's Justin Fields, who was a Buckeye while Meyer still worked at the school). The thinking, then, is that New York would just ship Darnold elsewhere (San Francisco?) at a discounted price. The compensation here favors the Jags, but again, think about what they'd be giving up. For reference, when the Bears moved up from No. 3 to No. 2 to draft Mitchell Trubisky in 2018, they gave up No. 3, a third-rounder, a fourth-rounder and a future third.
Miami Dolphins
Potential offer: QB Tua Tagovailoa, 2021 first (No. 3), 2021 first (No. 18), 2021 second (No. 50), 2022 second
The Dolphins just spent a No. 5 pick on Tua in 2020, but Lawrence would represent a luxurious course correction for a team ready to contend. Meyer may or may not be thrilled with Tagovailoa, but if he were to collect an additional first- and second-rounder while moving down just one spot, he could instantly surround Tua with a couple of premier additions (Ja'Marr Chase? Penei Sewell?) for the short and long term, not to mention inherit one of last year's most enticing QB prospects.
Atlanta Falcons
Potential offer: WR Calvin Ridley, 2021 first (No. 4), 2022 first, 2021 second (No. 35), 2022 second, 2021 third (No. 68)
Already, just three picks out of the No. 1 spot, we're approaching the territory where the Jags might not feel comfortable moving because of uncertain access to another top QB prospect. At No. 4, it's conceivable that at least one of Zach Wilson, Justin Fields or Trey Lance will be on the board. The Falcons would almost certainly follow this up with a trade of Matt Ryan (San Francisco?), and while it would cost them their top young play-maker and four other premium picks, they've shown a willingness to get ultra-aggressive before (see: Julio Jones). Why not now, with Arthur Smith kicking off a new regime?
Philadelphia Eagles
Potential offer: QB Jalen Hurts, 2021 first (No. 6), 2022 first, 2022 conditional first (via Colts), 2021 second (No. 37), 2022 second
Moving this far down wouldn't guarantee the Jags a top QB prospect other than Lawrence, so it would cost Philly a ton. The Eagles don't seem to want to be in the business of mortgaging all kinds of picks to move up after just ending the Carson Wentz relationship, but general manager Howie Roseman has a penchant for surprise blockbusters, and what better way to wash away Wentz than by landing a generational replacement? Jacksonville could end up getting two additional firsts if Wentz plays most of 2021 in Indy to fulfill trade conditions, and it would have Hurts to at least develop right off the bat.
Detroit Lions
Potential offer: OT Taylor Decker, 2021 first (No. 7), 2022 first, 2022 first (via Rams), 2023 first (via Rams), 2021 second (No. 41), 2022 third
Does anyone really think the Lions are content at QB after acquiring Jared Goff? Their Matthew Stafford deal was more about adding two extra firsts. In this scenario, they package those with a bunch of other picks, as well as a top-15 tackle in the 27-year-old Decker, to ensure they get the next face of the franchise. Goff could be sent elsewhere (Denver?) for scraps, whereas the Jaguars would conceivably collect enough ammunition to either move back up for their own QB, bank on one falling into their laps at No. 7, or target a big move at the top of the 2022 class. This would be a monumental haul for Meyer's long-term rebuild.
Carolina Panthers
Potential offer: QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Christian McCaffrey, 2021 first (No. 8), 2022 first, 2021 second (No. 39), 2022 second, 2023 second, 2021 third (No. 73)
New Panthers GM Scott Fitterer knows the value of a franchise QB from his days in Seattle, and he's been hinting at an aggressive move all offseason. With Deshaun Watson's status up in the air, Lawrence is the next best thing. McCaffrey, 24, would give Meyer an instant, if pricey, play-maker, but the real kicker would be an additional five Day One or Day Two picks through 2023 -- more than enough to allow the Jags to make their own move for another QB and/or infuse an overturned roster with top youth.
San Francisco 49ers
Potential offer: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, 2021 first (No. 12), 2022 first, 2023 first, 2021 second (No. 43), 2022 second, 2021 third (No. 102)
Niners brass can talk up Jimmy G all they want, but their actions have consistently shown they'd be open to upgrading at QB. With Trent Williams back in tow and the rest of the roster on the mend, what better way to reinstall San Francisco as a contender both now and later than by pulling off a mega-deal for a generational QB? Garoppolo is a throw-in here, but it's Kittle, one of the game's top pass catchers at tight end; the two additional firsts; plus three Day Two picks that could convince Meyer to value quantity and then either move up or hope for another QB this year (Mac Jones?).
New England Patriots
Potential offer: QB Jarrett Stidham, CB Stephon Gilmore, 2021 first (No. 15), 2022 first, 2023 first, 2021 second (No. 46), 2022 second, 2023 second, 2022 third
Neither Stidham nor Gilmore would offer Jacksonville much by the time the Jags are competitive again, though Meyer has praised Stidham's upside before. This would strictly be about the picks, with Jacksonville adding two additional firsts, plus four Day Two selections. It almost certainly wouldn't be popular for Jags fans, seeing as it would likely necessitate a big move back up for another QB. But Meyer knows Bill Belichick well, and it's apparent the latter is bent on righting the ship after 2020. Can you imagine the Patriots, somehow, someway, getting their hands on Lawrence to be Tom Brady's true successor?
Chicago Bears
Potential offer: OLB Khalil Mack, LB Roquan Smith, 2021 first (No. 20), 2022 first, 2023 first, 2021 second (No. 52), 2022 second, 2022 third, 2023 fourth
Is GM Ryan Pace really going to rely on Andy Dalton -- a one-year, $10 million gamble who's hardly an upgrade over Nick Foles -- to resurrect Chicago and save his job? With Watson and Russell Wilson basically off the table, what's left but to go hog wild with another draft-day trade -- this time with one that blows the Trubisky move out of the water? Mack and Smith are two blue-chip starters, and five likely top-80 picks from 2021-2023 would enable Jacksonville to move back up, either now or later, for its own QB.
