Houston will count on the run and the pass to keep the Buffalo defense off balance when the Texans (10-6) host the Bills (10-6) at NRG Stadium in an AFC Wild-Card Round matchup on Saturday afternoon in the opener for the 2020 NFL Playoffs. Texans' quarterback Deshaun Watson has the arm and legs to make plays, and running back Carlos Hyde topped 1,000 yards this season for an offense that averages 23.6 points and 125.6 rushing yards per game. 

Watson and receiver DeAndre Hopkins made the Pro Bowl this season, and both are rested after sitting out last week's 35-14 loss to Tennessee, while Hyde had just four carries. Kickoff is set for 4:35 p.m ET. Houston is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Texans vs. Bills odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 43.5. Before making any Bills vs. Texans picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four-plus years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Wild Card Weekend of the 2020 NFL playoffs on a strong 34-22 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 96-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch the past three years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players last season. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has set its sights on Bills vs. Texans in the AFC playoff bracket. We can tell you the model is leaning under, and it's also generated an against the spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see it. Now, here are the NFL lines and trends for Texans vs. Bills: 

  • Bills vs. Texans spread: Houston -2.5
  • Bills vs. Texans over-under: 43.5
  • Bills vs. Texans money line: Houston -146, Buffalo +124
  • HOU: WR DeAndre Hopkins has at least five receptions in every game.
  • BUF: WR Cole Beasley averages 14.6 yards per catch on the road. 

The Texans went 5-3 straight-up at home this season, and they were 5-4-1 overall against the spread in games outside the division. The Bills will have a lot to think about, as Watson rushed for 410 yards, threw for 3,852 and accounted for 33 total touchdowns. Hopkins is a star, and he showed it by catching 104 passes for 1,165 yards. Hyde had 1,070 rushing yards and six TDs, and he is joined in the backfield by Duke Johnson, who had 44 receptions, 820 total yards and six scores.

The Texans' secondary is banged up, so the linebackers will need to pick up the slack. They have a strong quartet in Zach Cunningham (team-high 142 tackles), Benardrick McKinney (101),  Whitney Mercilus (7.5 sacks) and Brennan Scarlett (3.5). They also have combined to recover five fumbles. D.J. Reader, a 347-pound nose tackle, clogs the middle, and the defense is hoping for a boost with three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt (pectoral) expecting to play.

Houston has stars on both sides of the ball, but that doesn't mean it will cover the Bills vs. Texans spread on Saturday in the NFL Playoffs 2020.

Buffalo allows an average of just 16.2 points (second in the NFL) and 298.2 yards (third), and the Bills are 5-0-2 in their last seven as a road underdog. Cornerback Tre'Davious White is an impact player, forcing two fumbles and grabbing six of the team's 14 interceptions. Safety Jordan Poyer also makes plays all over the field, with two interceptions and three fumble recoveries, and he is second on the team with 107 tackles. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds leads the unit with 115.   

Bills running back Devin Singletary has come on strong since taking over the lead role in Week 5. The rookie has rushed for 775 yards, averaging 5.1 per carry, while veteran Frank Gore has added 599 yards. Quarterback Josh Allen is having a strong season, throwing for 3,089 yards and 20 TDs, with John Brown and Cole Beasley the top targets. They have combined for 221 receptions and 12 TDs.

So who wins Bills vs. Texans? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to find out which side of the Texans vs. Bills spread you should be all over on Saturday, all from the model that has returned over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.