Breaking down NFL playoff picture, plus Week 16 grades and 49ers-Colts predictions for Monday night

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL for Dec. 22

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

Since it's Christmas week, that means things will be slightly changing around here. We usually do two newsletters per week and our next one was supposed to be coming to you on Thursday, but Santa has asked us to take Christmas day off since that's his time to shine and I will never not do what Santa says.

Speaking of Santa, he delivered the Buccaneers some coal in their stocking on Sunday. The Bucs were in total control of the NFC South, but that's no longer the case after their 23-20 loss to the Panthers. Also, I am now somewhat convinced that the Jaguars might be the best team in the AFC after their dominant 34-20 win over the Broncos. 

There were several games with huge playoff implications on Sunday, including the wins by Jacksonville and Carolina, so to help you make sense of everything, we'll be breaking down the playoff picture. We'll also be handing out some grades along with some overreactions. 

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. NFL Week 16 grades: Jaguars ace their road test in Denver with flying colors

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The NFL semester is almost over, but before that happens, we've got another week of grades. With that in mind, let's check out the grades from three notable games that were played Sunday:

Panthers 23-20 over Buccaneers (full recap)

• Buccaneers takeaway: The Buccaneers might have a Baker Mayfield problem. Mayfield was one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL through the first half of the season, but he's fallen off over the past few weeks. In Week 15, he threw a fourth-quarter interception that allowed the Falcons to get back in the game. Against the Panthers, Mayfield threw away any shot at winning when he threw a pick with under one minute left to play. The Bucs are good, but they're not good enough to overcome Mayfield's mistakes: They're now 0-7 this year when he throws at least one interception. This loss certainly wasn't all on Mayfield, but he's going to have to be better if the Bucs want to make the playoffs. The only upside for the Bucs is that they still have a simple path to the division title: If they win their final two games, they'll win the NFC South. Grade: B-
• Panthers takeaway: The Panthers are for real. If you take away one thing from this game, that should be it. The offense might not wow you, but it constantly makes big plays, like the 6-yard TD pass from Bryce Young to Ja'Tavion Sanders on third down that gave Carolina a 20-17 lead in the third quarter. The defense wasn't dominant, but it kept making clutch plays and nothing was bigger than Lathan Ransom's fourth-quarter interception that iced the win for Carolina. The Panthers (8-7) haven't gotten a chance to play very many big games this late in the season over the past few years, but they got an opportunity here and they took advantage of it. This is an impressive team that now has a very real chance to win the NFC South for the first time since 2015. Grade: B+

Steelers 29-24 over Lions (full recap)

• Steelers takeaway: The Steelers offense finally seems to be clicking. For the first time this year, the Steelers topped the 400-yard mark, and they were led by a rushing attack that went off for 230 yards, the team's highest rushing total in eight years. Jaylen Warren averaged an absurd 10.2 yards per carry on his way to 143 yards. With the run game working, that opened things up for Aaron Rodgers, who looked solid while throwing for 266 yards. Defensively, the Steelers held one of the NFL's best rushing attacks to just 15 yards. With three straight wins, the Steelers (9-6) are getting hot at the right time, and they've now taken one giant step closer toward clinching the AFC North title. Grade: B+
• Lions takeaway: The secret might be out on how to stop the Lions: Go all-in on stopping their rushing attack and make Jared Goff beat you. Going into Week 16, the Lions were 0-5 this year when they were held under 100 yards rushing and that's now 0-6 after they were limited to just 15 yards on the ground, their lowest rushing total since 2016. With the game on his back, Jared Goff put up some big numbers and made some big throws, but he also took a beating. The Lions offense looked out-of-sync for nearly 3.5 quarters before turning it on at the end to make it a close game. This was a rough loss for the Lions (8-7), who no longer control their playoff fate. There's a good chance that the Lions are going to miss the postseason for the first time since 2022. Grade: B-

Jaguars 34-20 over Broncos (full recap)

• Jaguars takeaway: When it comes to the best teams in the AFC, the Jaguars haven't really been in the conversation this year, but that should change after this game. This was a statement win by a Jacksonville team that went into Denver and dominated the Broncos. Trevor Lawrence, who looks totally revitalized in Liam Coen's offense, is on possibly the best run of his career. The Jags' QB threw for 279 yards and three touchdowns and now has 12 TD passes and zero interceptions in his past four games. The most impressive part is that Lawerence put these numbers against a Broncos defense that has been one of the best in the NFL this year. The Jags got a surprise performance from Parker Washington, who went off for a career-high 145 receiving yards on just six catches. One reason the Jags' offense is so difficult to stop is because Lawerence loves to spread the ball out. Washington was the fifth different pass-catcher over the past five weeks to lead the team in receiving yards. The Jags (11-4) look like a team that's playoff ready. Grade: A+
• Broncos takeaway: Denver has pulled off several big comebacks this year, but there was no comeback to be had in this game. The Broncos had no answers for a Jaguars team that outplayed them in every phase of the game. Denver's vaunted defense allowed the Jags to score on five straight possessions starting in the second quarter. The Broncos struggle to stop Jacksonville on third down and got bullied in the red zone. Even when the defense has struggled, Bo Nix has usually been able to create some fourth quarter magic, but he had no magic left in the tank after leading Denver to 11 straight wins. This game felt like a reality check for Denver: The Broncos (12-3) are good, but there are plenty of teams in the AFC who might be capable of beating them come playoff time. Grade: C-

As for the other 24 grades we handed out in Week 16, you can check those out by clicking here. 

2. Overreactions from Week 16: Will Bills run defense ruin their Super Bowl chances? 

Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Tyler Sullivan decided to take a look at several things that happened in Week 16 to decide if we're all overreacting. 

Statement:  Bills run defense will be their undoing in the playoffs.  
Overreaction or reality: Reality. It didn't burn them on Sunday as they were able to escape Cleveland with a win over the Browns, but the Buffalo Bills run defense is a massive problem that could prove to be their undoing when they get into the playoffs. In a game where Quinshon Judkins left early due to an injury, Cleveland still was able to rush for 160 yards on 5.2 yards per carry, which helped firmly put the Bills on upset alert. This isn't a one-week issue for the unit either, as it has been among the worst run defenses in the league all season.

Statement: Jaxson Dart no longer the QB of the future for the Giants. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. It was a bizarre day for the Giants offense as it fell to the Minnesota Vikings, 16-13. While that final score illustrates a close game, the offense didn't provide much, as the only touchdown on the afternoon for New York came on the defensive side. ... Specifically, it was a quiet afternoon for Dart, who only attempted five passes in the first half and completed one of them for 2 yards. For the game, Dart was 7 of 13 for 33 yards and an interception, which gave him a 27.4 passer rating. It was truly an awful performance all the way around. While that may shake the confidence in some regarding Dart's standing as the organization's centerpiece under center, it shouldn't. There is so much going wrong with the Giants, ranging from an ill-equipped offensive line, injured pass catchers, and an interim head coach, that it's hard to truly evaluate him. Dart has flashed enough this season that any serious head coaching candidate this cycle can look at him and see someone whom they can mold into a true franchise quarterback

Statement: Panthers are going to win the NFC South. 
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. As much as this win gives them an inside lane to eventually being named NFC South champions, it's a step too far to say that they are not going to run away with the division. Yes, if Carolina wins out, they'll clinch the division, but the road ahead is hardly easy. Next week, they'll host the Seattle Seahawks, who are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, before heading on the road to Raymond James Stadium, where they'll again play the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's Week 17 opponent is far easier in the Miami Dolphins, albeit with that game being on the road. This division is still very much up in the air.

There are plenty more overreactions, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. 

3. 12 wild stats from Week 16: Steelers set all-time record 

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Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some wild stats about the games that were just played. 

With that in mind, here are 12 crazy stats from Week 16: 

1. Steelers set all-time record. With their win over the Lions, the Steelers have officially clinched a non-losing season for the 22nd straight year, which is the longest streak in NFL history. The Steelers had been in a tie with the 1965-85 Cowboys, but now, they have the record to themselves. Mike Tomlin has now gone 19 straight seasons with a non-losing record, which is tied with Bill Belichick for the second-longest streak by a coach in NFL history. 
2. Trevor Lawerence is on a roll. With three TD passes and a rushing TD against the Broncos, Trevor Lawrence now has 10 total touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past two games. That makes him just the fourth QB in NFL history to total at least 10 touchdowns with zero picks in a two-game span.  
3. NFC East finally has a repeat winner. The Eagles clinched the NFC East with a win over the Commanders on Saturday night, which makes Philadelphia the first team to repeat as NFC East champion in 21 years. The last time it happened came when the Eagles won four titles in a row from 2001 through 2004. 
4. Bills on unprecedented run. The Bills picked up their 11th win of the season on Sunday, which makes them just the fifth team in NFL history to win at least 11 games in six straight seasons. The other four teams that pulled off the feat won a Super Bowl during their streak, so this feels like a make-or-break year for the Bills. The other four teams: 1976-81 Cowboys (1 Super Bowl win), 2003-09 Colts (1), 2010-19 Patriots (3), 2018-24 Chiefs (3). 
5. Jets set unfortunate NFL record. The Jets have gone 15 straight games without recording an interception, which is the longest streak in NFL history. The Jets had been previously tied with the 2024-25 49ers, who went 14 straight games, but now, the Jets have the unfortunate record to themselves. The last time the Jets picked off a pass came in Week 18 of the 2024 season when Tyler Huntley threw two picks against them while playing for the Dolphins.  
6. Bijan Robinson ties NFL record. The Falcons running back had 92 receiving yards and 76 rushing yards, marking the third time this season that he's finished with at least 75 receiving yards and 75 rushing yards, which is tied for the NFL record. Robinson will have the record to himself if he does it at least one more time over the final two weeks. 
7. Jacoby Brissett's bizarre streak. The Cardinals QB threw for 201 yards and a TD in Arizona's 26-19 loss to Atlanta. This marks the seventh straight game the Cardinals have lost where Brissett threw for at least 200 yards with at least one TD pass. Hitting 200 yards with one TD in seven straight games and LOSING them all is almost unheard of the NFL. Brissett ties Bert Jones (1981) for the longest losing streak for a QB with those stats since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. 
8. Lions lose two straight games. For most teams, losing two straight games isn't notable, but it is for the Lions. Detroit had won 15 straight times after a loss, which was tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history. Before Sunday, the Lions had not lost back-to-back games since 2022.  
9. Jaylen Warren ties and NFL record. The Steelers running back had two touchdown runs of exactly 45 yards during the fourth quarter against the Lions. Warren is just the fourth player in NFL history to score on two runs of 45 yards or more in the fourth quarter of a game. Warren is the first player to pull off the feat since LeShon Johnson did it for the Cardinals in 1996. 
10. Joe Burrow joins rare club. With four TD passes against the Dolphins, Joe Burrow now has 152 for his career, making him just the third QB in NFL history to throw at least 150 TD passes in his first 75 games. Burrow joins Patrick Mahomes (181 in 75 games) and Dan Marino (173 in 75 games). Burrow also became just the fifth QB to cross 20,000 passing yards in his first 75 games.   
11. Travis Kelce hits a milestone. Kelce only had one catch for six years against the Titans, but it put him over 800 receiving yards for the season. Kelce has now topped 800 yards in 12 straight seasons, which is tied with Jerry Rice for the most in NFL history.  
12. Taysom Hill is a true Swiss Army knife. Hill had four catches for 36 yards against the Jets on Sunday, which pushes him up to 1,002 receiving yards for his career. That's notable, because it makes him the first player in the Super Bowl era to have  at least 1,000 receiving yards, 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 passing yards in his career.   

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. 

4. Breaking down the NFL playoff picture: Broncos' loss opens up race for AFC's No. 1 seed

With just two full weeks left to play in the season, the playoff race is heating up, so we're going to breakdown the playoff picture. With that in mind, here's where everything stands heading into tonight's game. 

Let's check out the AFC first: 
1. *Broncos (12-3) -- AFC West leader
2. *Patriots (12-3) -- AFC East leader 
3. Jaguars (11-4) -- AFC South leader
4. Steelers (8-6) -- AFC North leader
5. Chargers (11-4)
6. Bills (11-4) 
7. Texans (10-5)
IN THE HUNT
8. Colts (8-6)
9. Ravens (7-8)

*-clinched playoff berth

AFC takeaway: With their win over the Broncos, the Jaguars are suddenly very much alive to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. For that to happen, the Jags need to win out, plus they also need both the Broncos and Patriots to go 1-1 over the final two weeks.  

Monday night note: There are going to be a lot of teams cheering AGAINST the Colts tonight. If Indianapolis loses, then the Jaguars, Bills and Chargers will ALL clinch a playoff spot. With an Indy loss, that means the AFC would go from two spots being clinched to five spots being clinched. 

Now, let's check out the NFC: 
1. *Seahawks (12-3) -- NFC West leader
2. *Bears (11-4) -- NFC North leader
3. z-Eagles (10-5) -- NFC East leader 
4. Panthers(8-7) -- NFC South leader
5. *Rams (11-4)
6. *49ers (10-4)
7. Packers (9-5-1)
IN THE HUNT
8. Lions (8-7)
9. Buccaneers (7-8)

*-clinched playoff berth; z-clinched divsion 

NFC takeaway: There are seven playoff spots in the NFC and five of them have now been clinched. That leaves us with four teams battling for two spots. The Buccaneers and Panthers are duking it for the NFC South title while the Packers and Lions are fighting for the final wild card spot. 

Monday night note: The 49ers currently control the path to the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. If they win out, they'll clinch the top seed and they'll win the NFC West, so this is an important game that San Francisco needs to win. 

If you want a closer look at the playoff picture, we've got that here.  

5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for 49ers at Colts 

There will be a lot of teams around the NFL paying attention to what happens at Lucas Oil Stadium tonight. As I mentioned above, if the Colts lose, then the Chargers, Bills and Jaguars will all clinch a playoff spot. However, a loss by Indy will not eliminate the Colts from playoff contention. As for the 49ers, if they lose, they'll be mostly out of the running for the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the team: 

• Why the Colts can win: Philip Rivers will be starting his second straight game tonight and this feels like a better matchup for him. The 49ers are surrendering 227.6 passing yards per game this year, which ranks in the bottom 10 of the NFL. The Niners also have the fewest sacks in the NFL this year, so if there's any team that Rivers can sit back and pick apart, it might be San Francisco. The 49ers are 2-3 this season when their opponent throws for at least 240 yards so if Rivers gets hot, he could conceivably lead Indy to the upset. 
• Why the 49ers can win: If Brock Purdy can take advantage of a Colts defense that has struggled to stop the pass this year, then the 49ers could end up rolling to a win. The Colts have given up an average of 247.6 passing yards per game this year, which is the second-most in the NFL. That's good news for Purdy, who has averaged 293 yards and two TD passes per game over the past two weeks. The 49ers will be missing Ricky Pearsall, who's out with an injury, but Purdy will have Christian McCaffrey, Kendrick Bourne, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here. 

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (via DraftKings). 

• ONE QB PROP I LIKE: Philip Rivers OVER 159.5 passing yards (-115): This is one of the lowest passing totals that you'll ever see for an NFL quarterback, so I'm going to jump on it. Rivers threw for 120 yards last week against a tough Seahawks defense, but I expect a slightly bigger showing from him this week. For one, he'll have another week of practice under his belt, so he should be more comfortable running the offense. Also, the 49ers have the worst pass-rush in the NFL, so Rivers should have time to throw and if you give a veteran like Rivers time to throw, he's going to make you pay. I won't be surprised if Rivers gets close to 200 yards, which would put him WAY over this number (You can actually bet on him topping 200 passing yards and you get pretty solid odds at +264). 
  
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE TONIGHT: Eddy Pineiro OVER 1.5 field goals (-137): The 49ers kicker has played in 11 games this year and he's hit at least two field goals in nine of those games. Kyle Shanahan is a coach who will almost always take the points when faced with a fourth down, which is why his kickers always seem to get so many field goal attempts and tonight should be no exception.   

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 32-32 (13-17 on kicker props and 19-15 on all other props). Now, it's time for some picks.  

PICKS FOR 'MNF'

My pick: 49ers 27-16 over Colts
Dubin's pick: 49ers 27-16 over Colts
Prisco's pick: 49ers 27-23 over Colts
Tyler Sullivan: 49ers 30-19 over Colts
Jordan Dajani: 49ers 24-16 over Colts

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all seven of us are taking the 49ers to win straight up, but only four of us are taking San Francisco to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. 

6. Extra points: DK Metcalf could be facing NFL punishment

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It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• DK Metcalf gets into altercation with fan. The Steelers receiver could be facing NFL punishment after shoving a fan during Pittsburgh's 29-24 win over the Lions (You can see video of the incident here and here). The fan told the Detroit Free Press that he called Metcalf by his full name -- DeKaylin Zecharius Metcalf -- and that set the receiver off. We didn't get Metcalf's side of the story because he exited the Steelers' locker room before the media entered following the game. At the minimum, Metcalf will be facing a fine, but it won't be surprising at all if the NFL hits him with a suspension. You can read more about the Metcalf situation here. 
• Lamar Jackson's status up in the air this week. The Ravens star QB was knocked out of the game in the first half after suffering a back injury, and right now, it's unclear if he'll be able to play on Saturday against the Packers. The Ravens will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to Green Bay, so Jackson's health is going to be a situation to watch all week. If he can't play Saturday, then Tyler Huntley will start in his place. 
• Chiefs lose another QB. One week after Patrick Mahomes went down with a torn ACL, it appears that Gardner Minshew has suffered the exact same injury. Minshew got injured on the third play of the game, and according to ESPN, it's believed that he has a torn ACL. With Minshew out, there's a good chance that Chris Oladokun could end up making the first start of his career on Christmas night against the Broncos. Oladokun has been in the NFL since the Steelers made him a seventh-round pick in 2022, but he had never thrown a pass in a game until yesterday.